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Pablo-silver or lead?

Is It Safe?

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Finale Death throws of El Grande TORO!

All bull markets come to an end, normally the harder they run the harder they fall. Take the Florida market. In Florida average annual property inflation is 4%. Always has been probably always will be (suckers have been buyin swamps there for 300 years). So when in response to 9/11 the fed reduced IR to 1% a little more HPI crept in.

2002 = 11% double the average

03= 15% nearly four times the average

04= 18% nearly five times the average

It is now generally accepted that in response to the Feds controlled and consistent tightening (increase in IR) the Florida bull market peaked around Aug/Sept 05. Despite this the HPI figure for 2005 in Florida (Orlando) was a whopping 34%!

Once sentiment turned the market stopped dead in its tracks. The bulls said “a much needed 10% correction is required and underway”. What they failed to understand was that 2003 to05 HPI was only driven by artificially low IR. Therefore annual HPI % gains that were so disconnected from the long term average, not only could not be supported by the fundamentals but could disappear as quick or quicker than they arrived! This is now happening as the buyers disappear and the seller rush for a rapidly receding exit.

In the UK the bull was given a new albeit temprorary lease of life by the MPC in 2005 when they reversed their policy of controlled IR rises and cut by .25%. This will come to be recognised as a misjudgement that will now require a series of rises to get back to where they need to be.

The effect of last years .25% IR reduction and a torrent of VI spin has sucked in naïve FTB, amateur BTL’s and a few cracked bears at the top of the market. The stats show the UK bull staggering back to its knees. By the end of 2006 early 2007 the Matador leading the picadors on the MPC will do the correct thing and raise rates to where they need to be. The more this thing is delayed the more victims they’ll be, that’s a fact!

Pablo Silver or Lead?

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Why do you sign your posts? Is it art or something?

TTRTR

Most of us grew up in a time when the standard way to communicate was by standard postal letter. Hence not signing the post just feels a little bit wrong. Like going to the toilet but not wiping, or using the indicator while driving but not turning at the next corner. That sort of thing.

Billy Shears

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Most of us grew up in a time when the standard way to communicate was by standard postal letter. Hence not signing the post just feels a little bit wrong. Like going to the toilet but not wiping, or using the indicator while driving but not turning at the next corner. That sort of thing.

Billy Shears

I also wondered why you sign your posts. This is not a letter, it's a statement of opinion.

TTRTR

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OK, I may get flamed for this as it's off topic, so apologies in advance. But I think raising awareness of this is a good thing.

Information about the BBC licence fee regressive tax: http://www.tvlicensing.biz/

With the first post of yours that I've ever noticed, you are my hero!

Imagine a tax, called a license, where they take your money, by law, then spend half of it on administering the collection of the tax and paying for advertising to threaten you to pay the tax or else!

If I were voted in, my first action would be to eliminate the license fee & incorporate it into mainstream taxes. I am in favour of public channels, not of wasted admin though.

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Imagine a tax, called a license, where they take your money, by law, then spend half of it on administering the collection of the tax and paying for advertising to threaten you to pay the tax or else!

G'day,

We are actually paying for our own brainwashing. Fairly clever that.

---

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Poole is now Cheaper than Newcastle ‘Up the Toon!’

I've just saved myself £75k (on paper as I'm not buying)

18 months ago Crest Nicholson the developer of Poole Quarter was advertising 3 storey 3 bed Town Houses from £325k.

In today’s Compass magazine The have a full page advert:

“3 bed Town Houses from £249,950!”

“Part Exchange Available!” (their potential buyers are struggling to put a chain together)

“Ready for immediate occupation!” (they surprisingly struggled to sell them off plan at £325k)

I might pop down and offer them £220k for a quick completion. If they don’t bite then I’d compromise and go for £180k for a slow one. Developer need to understand that they’re prospective purchasers like to be ahead of the market.

Pablo Silver or Lead?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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