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Realistbear

West Midlands Going Down

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www.redditchandbromsgroveproperty.co.uk

The Alcester Standard

Friday April 7, 2006

Property Section

Nigel (funnny name for an EA?) Poole & McGinn are a major EA in the W Midlands and have a huge property section consiting of 11 full pages of ads in this week's paper.

Page 1: 9 houses/ 3 new instructions. 2 Reduced further 15,000 for quick sale. 1 No upward chain.

Page 2: 11 houses/ 4 no upward chain. 1 new instruction.

Page 3: 30 houses/ 4 no upward chain. 2 discounted by 5000 for early completion.

Page 4: 29 houses/ 9 no upward chain

Page 5-6: 46 properties/ 10 new price. 5 no upward chain. 2 "unexpectedly back on market"

Pages 6-7: New Builds: 5% off, stamp paid

Page 8: 21 Properties: 5 no upward chain. 1 new price.

Page 9: 23 properties: 2 price reduced/new price. 1 unexpectedly back on market. 1 no chain.

Page 10: 13 Properties: 5 no upward chain. 3 new price. 1 stamp duty paid.

That is 34 "no upward chain" which suggests they are BTLers getting out or people leaving the country. This is just one agent in a paper carmmed with similar EA ads with "new price," "no upward chain," "reduced for quick sale," etc.

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www.redditchandbromsgroveproperty.co.uk

The Alcester Standard

Friday April 7, 2006

Property Section

Nigel (funnny name for an EA?) Poole & McGinn are a major EA in the W Midlands and have a huge property section consiting of 11 full pages of ads in this week's paper.

Page 1: 9 houses/ 3 new instructions. 2 Reduced further 15,000 for quick sale. 1 No upward chain.

Page 2: 11 houses/ 4 no upward chain. 1 new instruction.

Page 3: 30 houses/ 4 no upward chain. 2 discounted by 5000 for early completion.

Page 4: 29 houses/ 9 no upward chain

Page 5-6: 46 properties/ 10 new price. 5 no upward chain. 2 "unexpectedly back on market"

Pages 6-7: New Builds: 5% off, stamp paid

Page 8: 21 Properties: 5 no upward chain. 1 new price.

Page 9: 23 properties: 2 price reduced/new price. 1 unexpectedly back on market. 1 no chain.

Page 10: 13 Properties: 5 no upward chain. 3 new price. 1 stamp duty paid.

That is 34 "no upward chain" which suggests they are BTLers getting out or people leaving the country. This is just one agent in a paper carmmed with similar EA ads with "new price," "no upward chain," "reduced for quick sale," etc.

Realistbear

I live in Cornwall and work in Birmingham so I see two markets - both falling

My daughter is looking for somewhere to rent in Solihull (7 months after the last rental) her words were "I cant believe the number of properties available for rent there are at least twice as many as last time I looked"

BTL's are in trouble?

In Cornwall if they can't sell they take it off the market and rent it out so exactly the opposite is happening here although rents are considerably cheaper

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Havn't been on the site for ages (crazy job at the moment) but did any midlanders see the piece on the local news (not sure if it was ITV or BBC) this week?

Interviewed a couple who had bought one of the city centre appartments off plan for 220k ish and was valued by an EA as 180k ish (cant remember figures exactly - only caught a bit of it). The reporter actually said "negative equity" back in Birmingham. Thought this might have been on a main thread somewhere but couldn't see it anywhere? It was the local news between 6 and 7 - cant remember the side but the presenter was a ginger haired lady i think?

On a slightly different tack does any one know Leamington? I've moved up from London recently so property looks good value to me although its expensive for the midlands (fantastic town though). I'm renting at the moment but with a bit of equity its probably cheaper to buy but dont want to get caught out. I am thinking however that property in the posh end of town will still stay fairly desirable even if house prices in general go down? I'm after a flat rather than a house and it does look like there is a bit of over supply at the moment plus lots of development going on? Any views?

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Havn't been on the site for ages (crazy job at the moment) but did any midlanders see the piece on the local news (not sure if it was ITV or BBC) this week?

Interviewed a couple who had bought one of the city centre appartments off plan for 220k ish and was valued by an EA as 180k ish (cant remember figures exactly - only caught a bit of it). The reporter actually said "negative equity" back in Birmingham. Thought this might have been on a main thread somewhere but couldn't see it anywhere? It was the local news between 6 and 7 - cant remember the side but the presenter was a ginger haired lady i think?

On a slightly different tack does any one know Leamington? I've moved up from London recently so property looks good value to me although its expensive for the midlands (fantastic town though). I'm renting at the moment but with a bit of equity its probably cheaper to buy but dont want to get caught out. I am thinking however that property in the posh end of town will still stay fairly desirable even if house prices in general go down? I'm after a flat rather than a house and it does look like there is a bit of over supply at the moment plus lots of development going on? Any views?

There was a lot about the couple both on the forum and on the blog no much sympathy for them though

I have a friend who lives in Warwick on the big new estate where all the streets are Shakesperian characters - he says that prices are pretty flat and probably falling there which is only a stones throw from Leamington (I can never work out where Leamington finishes and Warwick starts)

I don't think you will lose out by waiting

CS

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Warwick and Leamington's newbuilds are falling but still have a long way to go IMO.

There are some fantastic houses in excellent areas which will always hold their value (and unfortunately it's one of those that we are after) but there's some over priced rubbish which will see dramatic falls IMO.

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UPDATE:

The Alcester Standard

Friday, 4th April 2006

Covering Redditch, Alcester, Bromsgrove, Studley and surrounding areas of West Midlands

Nigel Poole & McGinn (largest advertising EA)

EA with 7 page ad:

Page 1: 27 properties listed, 7 "new price," 2 "no upward chain."

Page 2: 28 properties listed, 3 "new price," 6 "no upward chain," 5 "unexpectedly back on market."

Page 3: 23 properties listed, 3 "no upward chain,"

Page 4: 26 properties listed, 2 "no upward chain,"

Page 5: 17 properties listed, 7 "no upward chain,"

Page 6: 17 properties listed, 4 "no upward chain," 2 "offers considered for quick sale," 2 "new price."

Page 7: 22 properties listed, 1 "no upward chain," 3 "new price," 2 "unexpectedly back on market."

Total: No chain 25

Hemmings EAs (RICS)

1 Page of ads: 20 listed, 9 "no upward chain," 2 "unexpetectly back on market."

Dixons (Countrywide)

Page 1: 21 properties listed, 4 "no upward chain."

Page 2: 27 Properties listed, 4 "new price."

NEW BUILDS:

Laing: 10k discount, plus free carpets

Miller Homes: free deposit, carpets, legal fees

Nigel Poole New Homes: 5% deposit paid on under 125k flats.

Quite a few sellers are selling without buying another property (no upward chain) and a significant number with prices reduced (new price) or back on the market again. By no means flying off the shelves around here.

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Report from Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire

Saturday,15th April. The "busiest" day of the year for EAs.

Town generally busy. Looked in the windows of the 6 big estate agents. Not one single customer in any of them. A lot of empty desks with a 2 or 3 agents looking very bored and staring out of the window. Hardly a soul looking at the ads in the windows either.

The prospects for a Spring Bounce look limited to some propaganda only that customers are "thronging" into EAs. Well not around here.

It could be that higher IR, lower levels of employment and and higher fuel bills are cutting away the underpins of the economy.

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It should be packed and the EA's should be giving out lots of details to people who visit for the weekend and decide to move to S-u-A until they see the house prices :lol:

Edited by terrified

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It should be packed and the EA's should be giving out lots of details to people who visit for the weekend and decide to move to S-u-A until they see the house prices :lol:

As the Italians would say, the market around here is "Morte."

With prices so far beyond people's ability to pay it all had to come to an end sooner or later. I wonder when the panic selling will begin around here? June?

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God I hope so RB, i'm so depressed it's not funny any more. I know owning a house isn't the be all and end all but with 3 kids and one on the way it would be really nice to put down some roots in a house we actually want. I've no problem working hard but it would be nice to have something to show for it you know.

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As the Italians would say, the market around here is "Morte."

With prices so far beyond people's ability to pay it all had to come to an end sooner or later. I wonder when the panic selling will begin around here? June?

Funnily enough i'm renting a poncy executive appartment on a new development and at least half of them are unsold. I got a price list from the sales office (which is open and showing people around the developemnt) and a couple of the appartments have been reduced by 20k ish. I think they were finished about six months ago. Its a nice building (if you like that kind of thing) and the kind of thing you'd think would be snapped up - great location and so on.

I think CS is right and i'll hang on.

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Latest LR stats out:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/44ue.stm?d

Some very nice figures for my area!

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Stratford-On-Avon

£328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162

(Detached)

They are crashing harder than last Q when houses plunged by 7.8

P.S. The latest BBC HPI propaganda states the following:

"Prices in Conwy, Wales, experienced the biggest drop, falling almost
7%
from last year's levels"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4751057.stm

If the BBC said price falls varied according to house type and that cheaper properties may be rising to skew the averages we would have a clearer picture. The fact that detahced are crumbling shows market confidence is dropping at the high end.

Edited by Realistbear

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I'm out of the housing market dilema, with no agenda.

Sold in Coventry last year - 3 bed Semi in a sought after area.

Market was red hot up to July 2004, going flatter in August (1st offer), died a severe death in March 2005, when a no chain buyer snapped our hand off at £146,000.

She thought she was robbing us blind, however by the time of completion in August land registry average prices for that postcode had fallen 4K, meaning she was now paying us slightly above agerage.

2 months ago the missus had a look at some of the areas we were considering in the 2-300K range, couldn't believe the falls since the peak in March 04; some of them by as much as 50k.

The house opposite ours has been up for sale since June 05, no sign of a sale (2 lads, bought at peak, renovated and tried to sell for a tidy profit.........just too late).

Our new house is near Meriden, on a very expensive road - we must be one of the few non millionaires there. The price of that post code never falls, only people with money buy there. However, had we tried to move this year it would have been game over, the gap between our old and new house would actually have grown to just out of our reach.

No question, the market is in the doldrums. Be patient, it can only get worse, especially in Coventry (the Peugeot scenario will add to this).

The buy to letters will flee especially with the rise in the stock market.

Good to find this forum, especially for an economist who has always believed the house market is over valued (as I did the stock market in 2000).

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Can anyone explain the price rise in Dudley when prices in Birmingham, Sandwell, Coventry, and Wolverhampton are all down? Wolverhampton prices have risen by a miserable 0.8% YOY.

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you will find that because dudley area appears to be the cheapest area in west midlands people are getting them to get a foot on the ladder...

anything is better than nothing... even i have considered it... then thought twice... two far away from redditch, for my personal liking... although i frequently go to merry hill!

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Err. I thought Sandwell is the cheapest area in the West Midlands. It is more a matter of which neighbourhoods are good that which are bad. Tipton is a particularly undesirable and unpleasant area and Oldbury and West Bromwich aren't much better. Dudley local authority also covers Stourbridge which is quite a nice place.

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I'm still seeing regular drops across Worcester each week. I'm tracking the average reduction across the area and it seems to be stuck at around £10k per week - usually averaged over 60-80 properties. It'll be interesting to see if the number of reductions increases as Spring gives way to the Summer lull...

BTW each week I catch 1/2 properties where the price is increased. I assume this is simply to give the vendors some wiggle room should someone come along and make an offer... Most people I know are tracking prices so I hope they spot these a mile off. Here's a property that's just gone up £35k - yet it remains unsold after well over a year:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-7567403.rsp

Yet here are three other houses in the 600k range that have come down 50-55k each in the last week:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-9095372.rsp

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-10369502.rsp

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-6969745.rsp

This one came down almost 10% (£50k) this week too:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-10084319.rsp

I remain strongly of the opinion that patience is rewarded.

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Worcester seems to be seeing some nice drops according to government figures although not as dramatic as Stratford-Warwick where falls are 7-8%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...county106.stm?d

Change in last quarter: -5.9%

Wychavon £302,133 -3.4% -1.9% 164

Malvern Hills £288,012 -0.3% -10.7% 77

Worcester £247,321 -2.3% -5.6% 94

Wyre Forest £243,680 0.4% 1.4% 78

Redditch £219,492 -10.4% -7.7% 74

Redditch is doing the best with crash quality drops of 10.4%

Edited by Realistbear

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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