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Realistbear

U S Jobs Data Released-- Up 211,000 -- 4 Year Record

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http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...0407&ID=5629440

March unemployment rate back to 4-1/2-year lowadvertisementRelated information E-mail this article Print-friendly version
All Reuters NewsWASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added 211,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped back to a 4-1/2-year low 4.7 percent, the government said on Friday in a report likely to keep concern about potential inflation pressures on the burner.
The pace of hiring last month was stronger than the 190,000 jobs that had been forecast by analysts, who also had expected the unemployment rate to be unchanged at February's 4.8 percent.

TTRTRates.

Fed will likely hike at least 2 more times leaving BoE far behind with all kinds of implications for shaky sterling.

Edited by Realistbear

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It might take quite a difference to cause stirling to break away from the dollar and tank. I have noticed over the last few months that the pound tracks the price of oil quite closely.

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Of course when sacked GM workers get a minimum-wage job in Starbucks, that's hardly good news for the economy...

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http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...0407&ID=5629440

March unemployment rate back to 4-1/2-year lowadvertisementRelated information E-mail this article Print-friendly version
All Reuters NewsWASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added 211,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped back to a 4-1/2-year low 4.7 percent, the government said on Friday in a report likely to keep concern about potential inflation pressures on the burner.
The pace of hiring last month was stronger than the 190,000 jobs that had been forecast by analysts, who also had expected the unemployment rate to be unchanged at February's 4.8 percent.

TTRTRates.

Fed will likely hike at least 2 more times leaving BoE far behind with all kinds of implications for shaky sterling.

RB,

I've been absorbing the news coming out of Bloomberg for the last few weeks and Japan sounds as if it could move early as July. If it does, then all this "local noise" we are hearing from the VIs whether genuine or not could be brushed aside in one swoop. Perhaps this is why the Halifax and N'wide remain slightly bearish.

Edited by delite1

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RB,

I've been absorbing the news coming out of Bloomberg for the last few weeks and Japan sounds as if it could move early as July. If it does, then all this "local noise" we are hearing from the VIs whether genuine or not could be brushed aside in one swoop. Perhaps this is why the Halifax and N'wide remain slightly bearish.

I wonder if there is some inside info on the Japan situation? I do believe any moves from there will upset the applecart for HPI in the UK--the market is already in correction phase in the US due to higher rates. Its a question of how long can Gordon resist moving our rates up. IMHO a .25% uptick will send shockwaves through the market and speed up HPC considerably.

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I'm sure those that have these huge businesses, like HBOS, built on money lending know something. I think a rise in the lending rate in Japan will have deeper consequences than what the US are doing. Don't get me wrong though I think what the US is doing is currently hurting the UK in terms of where the "hot money's" now going.

Still what should we expect from a nation whos entire industial produce has been reduced to "luxury 2 bed apartments."

Pity we can't export them. :lol::lol:

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Have to admit I am amazed that Sterling is holding up so well at the moment against the $.

Ok the USA has got many problems but I think when all the Skeletons finally come rattling out of the cupboard. in the UK & we find that Nu Labours economic miracle was just 'Smoke & Mirrors' any problems the USA might have will pale into insignificance compared to ours.

I don't reckon that the UK will raise interest rates (Even though they should) any more rises in the USA (Almost 100% certain after the latest jobs data) will eventually take it's toll on Cable.

FWIW I still predict that the £ will be worth no more then $1.60 by the end of the year :ph34r:

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I wonder if there is some inside info on the Japan situation?

Ex-BOJ [TEIZO TAYA] said a neutral level of interest rate for Japan is around 2.5-3.0% and that the potential growth rate is around 1.5-2%. Taya expects BOJ to forecast a 0.1-1.0% rise in the CPI for fiscal 2007 in its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (due Apr28).

The minutes of BOJ's Mar8/9 meeting will be released this week.

---

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Have to admit I am amazed that Sterling is holding up so well at the moment against the $.

Ok the USA has got many problems but I think when all the Skeletons finally come rattling out of the cupboard. in the UK & we find that Nu Labours economic miracle was just 'Smoke & Mirrors' any problems the USA might have will pale into insignificance compared to ours.

I don't reckon that the UK will raise interest rates (Even though they should) any more rises in the USA (Almost 100% certain after the latest jobs data) will eventually take it's toll on Cable.

FWIW I still predict that the £ will be worth no more then $1.60 by the end of the year :ph34r:

I am counting on 1.60 ish. That is the historic norm over the last 10 years or so. I hold nearly all US$ and am getting 4.48% on the cash accounts which I believe is better than I can get in the UK which has not been the case for a few years.

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Click Here To See Your Home Depreciate

FORBES MAGAZINE

4/7/06

NEW YORK -

Do you tune in to NASCAR for the crashes? Hockey for the fights? American Idol for Simon Cowell's smack-downs? Then you may want to keep an eye on the U.S. housing market in the next year or so.

Yes, just in time for what may be a meltdown, you can really watch.

Forbes

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Ex-BOJ [TEIZO TAYA] said a neutral level of interest rate for Japan is around 2.5-3.0% and that the potential growth rate is around 1.5-2%. Taya expects BOJ to forecast a 0.1-1.0% rise in the CPI for fiscal 2007 in its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (due Apr28).

The minutes of BOJ's Mar8/9 meeting will be released this week.

---

If Japan neutral is around 3% we could see 9-10%. I read somewhere that a .25% rate will ripple though to us at 1%. Imagine what will happen to inflated house prices in the UK with a .25% hike from Japan let alone 3%!

:o:D

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Yes, just in time for what may be a meltdown, you can really watch.

They should turn it into a reality TV show.

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So is that the accepted wisdom? .25 there equates to 1% here? If that is true or there abouts no wonder the big VIs are being bearish.

Of course it's not true, if it was then do you not think the future markets, or the yeild curve would already be pricing in the rises in the UK rates? Would you be able to still fix uk mortgage rates for any length of time you want foe under 5%

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Of course it's not true, if it was then do you not think the future markets, or the yeild curve would already be pricing in the rises in the UK rates? Would you be able to still fix uk mortgage rates for any length of time you want foe under 5%

It may have something to do with the Japs having cried wolf too many times before. This time they seem intent on actually raising the rates--in fact the commercial banks have already done so. BoJ know its a delicate situation but do they really care if a few pips squeak for awhile? Mervyn might think we need to let the air out of the bubble as having 2/3rds of our GNP dependent on HPI is making us a sick nation. A drop back to reality will, in the long run, return us to economic health and not a bubble economy based on HPI/MEW.

Also, Gordon may be thinking he can resist hikes in the BoJ rate by devaluing sterling to parity with the Euro then it will be a "UNited We Stand" effort with the ECB to try to resist Japanes hikes. On our own we are sunk.

Sterling has reacted to the US data by dropping quite sharply:

U.S. $

3:03pm

1 U.K. £ =

1 1.7439

It was headed toward 1.76 yesterday.

Edited by Realistbear

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Kon,

So what do you think the ratio is? Surely it can not be 1:1.

Hi

There isn't one it depends on what the real returns on the money are IE what you nominal interest rates are expected to do against what you inflation is expected to do.

If you have choice 50% interest rates and 50% inflation local currency, or 5% and 2% inflation in local currency. And the outlook for both countries was that inflation or interest rates wouldn't move, then where would you put your money?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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