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E A Tells The Truth About The Housing Market

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Here is an EA willing to tell it like it is in the US's biggest bubble market:


March & 1st Quarter 2006: San Diego Housing Market - single family detached and attached: Inventory increases and demand declines continue. Sales finished the month at 2,844 homes sold versus 3,885 sold in March 2005, down 28%. Based on the March pending sales of about 3,100, April is forecast to be down from last April's 4,134 by 25%. This downward trend in sales began in earnest in the last quarter and seems to be accelerating. The first quarter sales were 6,743 sold versus 8,905 in the same period last year. This is down about 25% year to year. Typically the first quarter makes up about 22% of annual sales, if this holds true this year we are on track to sell 30,650 homes this year. This compares with 41,122 in 2005 and 42,876 in 2004. This is a far bigger drop than I expected, I was thinking more in the 35,000 range which I thought might cause some problems. Goes to show what I know. This drop in sales is happening at the same time that inventory continues to grow; we are now at 17,833 about 6 months supply. The average price for the month was $635,775, up 11% from last March. Don't get excited or misled, prices did not go up. The under $500,000 sales made up 45% of the sales volume versus 55% last year, this mix change pushed up the average price because of the sale of more expensive homes. This is not due to a lack of homes for sale, the under $500,000 inventory stands at about 8,300 - 158 days supply - or 47% of total inventory. Another item to watch in average price is that in some cases sellers are beginning to pay all or some of the buyer closing costs which is being financed in the selling price. This has the effect of raising the price of the home by about 2%.
The rise in interest rates, especially the ARM's has had a dramatic impact on the San Diego market. Consider that 67% of all loans in San Diego are ARM loans, compared to 35% nationally and that 50% of total loans are interest only ARM's. Just in the past 12 months the 5/1 ARM interest rate has raised by 11.5% to about 5.96% while the 30 year fixed has gone up to 6.32% or an increase of 5%. Thus the overwhelming majority of buyers in our market are faced with major increases in the cost of home ownership. This combined with the overall San Diego pricing structure is chasing potential buyers out of the market.
Seller's need to take extra care to make sure that their home stands out on the market to create demand for your home to sell faster and for the best price the market will give. Buyer's need to be careful shoppers and be aware of what is going on around the homes for which they have an interest.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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