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Raven

Realisation!

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I was talking to a work collegue this morning re: house prices (a good guy, he's actually trying to listen rather than being a sheeple), something I said to him and then whilst reading something on another thread (about debt) made me came to a realisation.

A House price crash is inevitable! (stick with me). I get the feeling we can't see the woods for the tree here (bears and bulls). We argue on here about statistical release after statistical release, interest rate changes, currency, debt even oil suppy, most of it is short term.

Nothing lasts forever, the realisation I came to is sooner or later there is going to be an ecconomic shock, a ripple in the calm pond we have been living in. That is definate, inevitable, at some point there will be a problem that our economy will have to face and unfortunatley we have become a fat over indebted couch potato of an economy, years of piling on the pounds (litterally £'s) has made us slow and week and generally unfit. Now when the shock comes (and it will, sooner or later) and no matter what that shock will be, it may give us a heart attack.

Let me explain, we (as a country) have saved less, have no REAL cash behind us, less money to spend (or save) higher bills, higher tax etc (I doubt anyone will argue with that) we are reliying on the price of an asset that has no REAL worth other than what someone else wants to pay for it, we are vulnerable. Now we have gorged ourselves and we are in no fit state to suffer ANY shocks, we have placed ourselves on a nife edge. Think about it. We cannot survive a major shock to our economy, that is a no brainer, another no brainer is we will have to face a challenge/shock at some point in the future. This will lead to a recession of sorts and who will be able to buy your debt off of you? No-one.

You may think I'm stretching to a conclusion about house prices, and you may be right, but my main point is we are in no fit state to ride out a storm & storms I'm afraid are inevitable!

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Excellent point, well put. Oh sorry TTRTR i was thinking of someone else.

9/11 was in 2001 wasn;t it, before all this foolish (or at least the majority of it) debt. I'm talking about the sitaution we are in NOW, you know NOW the time after you woke up and before you've gone to bed. Now not yesteryear. As for Iraq, how is that an economic challenge? How does it REALLY effect our economy.

I sleep fine, I have no debt no gearing. If I owned a home (or if I was a landlord, spppittt...) I wouldn't be anywhere near this site, you presence here indicates you are at least worried about the possibility of a crash. And don;t come out with some trying to show you all the light, like to bear bait, because you know your bullsh1ting and we know your bullsh1itting. So don;t waste you energy typing the keys.

And if I don't respond from now on, I've not sh1t out, I'm going away for the weekend, sorry. Have a great weekend everyone.

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I was talking to a work collegue this morning re: house prices (a good guy, he's actually trying to listen rather than being a sheeple), something I said to him and then whilst reading something on another thread (about debt) made me came to a realisation.

A House price crash is inevitable! (stick with me). I get the feeling we can't see the woods for the tree here (bears and bulls). We argue on here about statistical release after statistical release, interest rate changes, currency, debt even oil suppy, most of it is short term.

Nothing lasts forever, the realisation I came to is sooner or later there is going to be an ecconomic shock, a ripple in the calm pond we have been living in. That is definate, inevitable, at some point there will be a problem that our economy will have to face and unfortunatley we have become a fat over indebted couch potato of an economy, years of piling on the pounds (litterally £'s) has made us slow and week and generally unfit. Now when the shock comes (and it will, sooner or later) and no matter what that shock will be, it may give us a heart attack.

Let me explain, we (as a country) have saved less, have no REAL cash behind us, less money to spend (or save) higher bills, higher tax etc (I doubt anyone will argue with that) we are reliying on the price of an asset that has no REAL worth other than what someone else wants to pay for it, we are vulnerable. Now we have gorged ourselves and we are in no fit state to suffer ANY shocks, we have placed ourselves on a nife edge. Think about it. We cannot survive a major shock to our economy, that is a no brainer, another no brainer is we will have to face a challenge/shock at some point in the future. This will lead to a recession of sorts and who will be able to buy your debt off of you? No-one.

You may think I'm stretching to a conclusion about house prices, and you may be right, but my main point is we are in no fit state to ride out a storm & storms I'm afraid are inevitable!

At last, some commonsence, Raven you have hit the nail on the head, you are spot on.

Nobody, and i mean nobody knows how a crash, recession, downturn, whatever is of most interest to any one individual is going to pan out.

The one and only thing i am certain i am right about is that the UK is now maxed out, it is walking a tightrope, the question is will the uk get to the other side, i think not.

But the big question is WHEN, 1 month, 1 year, 1 dedade, or even longer.

There have been 1000's of reasons why a property crash is or is happening right now, all bo***x in my opinion, yesterday alone i saw several reasons why people thought a property crash was imminent, one in particular had me in stitches.

The way i see it is that we have entered a minefield, we might get blown sky high in minutes, or we might last ages at get close to the other side.

We might even get to the other side, i have not totally ruled that option out now, but very very unlikely.

Sam

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If you were right, it would have tanked after 9/11. Then it would have tanked again when the tanks rolled into Iraq.

Calm down friend, you'll sleep better at night.

Would you not say that the failure to enter recession after 9/11 was nothing to do with low interest rates and lax lending policies that encouraged consumers to buy things by running up debts? I.e. that trouble has been stored up for the future.

And I thought that wars were usually "good" for the enconomy, as lots of jobs are created supplying the effort.

Billy Shears

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Excellent point, well put. Oh sorry TTRTR i was thinking of someone else.

9/11 was in 2001 wasn;t it, before all this foolish (or at least the majority of it) debt. I'm talking about the sitaution we are in NOW, you know NOW the time after you woke up and before you've gone to bed. Now not yesteryear. As for Iraq, how is that an economic challenge? How does it REALLY effect our economy.

Well actually leading up to the Iraq invasion the stock market plunged to it's lowest point.

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If you were right, it would have tanked after 9/11. Then it would have tanked again when the tanks rolled into Iraq.

Calm down friend, you'll sleep better at night.

These were social shocks, but not economic, and have largely been covered by govt borrowing for the moment. Try a significant number of job-losses in a sector or even major firm or the collapse/international relocation of similar. Or revaluation for the pound/dollar. I don't think anything that size has happened yet, rover was small but very bad for those involved. Try the international world of finance and hedge-funds etc for an unexpected multi-100-billion dollar shock. George Soros might be a good starting point.

Once again the naivite of a bear reminds me, starkly, of the blinkered bubble-mentality that exists.

In my honest opinion though, a shock is not required. There wasn't one in 1989, black wednesday/ir peaks etc was in 1992.

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I tend to imagine the situation like this.

Some person called... we shall call him Gordon is in your living room building a structure lets call it a house for arguments sake out of many packs of cards. The packs of cards are differnt thicknesses and are of differnt quality, some are even those posh glossy ones which you dont have to put talc on to unstick after 10 minutes of using them.

The cards themselves are pretty much irrelevant, so i dont know why you read so intently about them, anyways.. this house structure is really coming along nicely, you walk through the door and gordon gives you a look as if to say look what ive done, you gently shut the door behind you because you dont want to ruien his fun and to be honest it does look quite cool.

After 3 days you've gone to work and come home several times and Gordon is sat there in his own filth, unshaven and stinking of p*ss and stale sweat. He is obsessed with building this house stucture which is now massive, its not a wuality build, various cards are out of place and if you look closely you can see that alot of cards are just balanced on eachother, worse still some higher levels of the structure are built on balanced cards.

You try and tell Gordon that if someone opens the window, closes the door or even moves in a quick unpredictable way that the whole structure will colapse. You try and tell him that all that he will be left with is a mixed up bunch of cards from various packs that will need to be sorted out. You try and tell him that he is sitting in his own p*ss and sweat. You try and tell him that it will all be in more of a mess than before he started.

Unfortunatly Gordon is obsessed and drunk on his own achievment, he tells you that you are just jealous, he venomously asks 'what do you know about buliding card structures', he states that no one ever before has built a structure this big before, you try to reason with him stating that there is a reason that structures are not built like this, but he keeps on building because thats all he can do now.

He will stop when the window is opened or he runs out of cards, either way he will be forced to stop at some point. The higher it gets built the more unstable it becomes, the longer he sits there balancing cards the more he stinks.

I think next time everyone should think twice before inviting a Gordon into thier lives.

Edited by theChuz

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If you were right, it would have tanked after 9/11. Then it would have tanked again when the tanks rolled into Iraq.

Calm down friend, you'll sleep better at night.

It was tanking.

That was when IR's plumited to pay for the war.

You have the potential to have made a great deal of money.

But you havent made it until you sell.

You have no idea why the market went up, you don't understand why it will come down.

The arguments that you make are the same that have been made about every boom market by bulls for millenia.

A tru bull understands that they have invested and also understands why he must leave the market at the right time.

You are not a bull, none on here are, you are merely those that bulls sold too.

A bull is not the blinkered belief that money can be made in a market, its the knowledge that money can be made and how to do so.

You are the mark.

Tell me of another market out there that didn't turn?

Tell me why prices were not this high before??

understand, following the herd cannot make people rich.

Other wise the herd would always have been rich.

The herd is from whom the wolves make money. Believe as the herd believes and fall prey to the wolves.

TTRTR's.

you are the mark.

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At last, some commonsence, Raven you have hit the nail on the head, you are spot on.

Nobody, and i mean nobody knows how a crash, recession, downturn, whatever is of most interest to any one individual is going to pan out.

The one and only thing i am certain i am right about is that the UK is now maxed out, it is walking a tightrope, the question is will the uk get to the other side, i think not.

But the big question is WHEN, 1 month, 1 year, 1 dedade, or even longer.

There have been 1000's of reasons why a property crash is or is happening right now, all bo***x in my opinion, yesterday alone i saw several reasons why people thought a property crash was imminent, one in particular had me in stitches.

The way i see it is that we have entered a minefield, we might get blown sky high in minutes, or we might last ages at get close to the other side.

We might even get to the other side, i have not totally ruled that option out now, but very very unlikely.

Sam

I agree and have come to the belief that, although it could be argued that the start has happened, it is moving damn slowly. Unless you have infinite patience for some of us the wait will be too long.

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A House price crash is inevitable! (stick with me). I get the feeling we can't see the woods for the tree here (bears and bulls). We argue on here about statistical release after statistical release, interest rate changes, currency, debt even oil suppy, most of it is short term.

Nothing lasts forever, the realisation I came to is sooner or later there is going to be an ecconomic shock, a ripple in the calm pond we have been living in. That is definate, inevitable, at some point there will be a problem that our economy will have to face and unfortunatley we have become a fat over indebted couch potato of an economy, years of piling on the pounds (litterally £'s) has made us slow and week and generally unfit. Now when the shock comes (and it will, sooner or later) and no matter what that shock will be, it may give us a heart attack.

I agree that a shock of some sort is inevitable eventually - but it might not happen any time soon, and the impact might not be as great as you think. The Western economies have proved remarkably resilient in the long run. The First World War, afterall, was supposed to spell the end of capitalism.

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If you were right, it would have tanked after 9/11. Then it would have tanked again when the tanks rolled into Iraq.

Calm down friend, you'll sleep better at night.

The whole point was that the market was about to tank when 9/11 happened, so George told the good ol' american consumer to get out there and spend the country out of a recession. That's when interest rates really went down, to finance a consumerathon like never before. And guess what? We copied them.

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If you were right, it would have tanked after 9/11. Then it would have tanked again when the tanks rolled into Iraq.

Calm down friend, you'll sleep better at night.

Oh dear.....! Do you think America would have let itself crash after 9/11 what do you think they did to stave of a crash and ensure a spending spree kept the already inflated bubble to be supplemented by yet more hot air....or consumer cash!

Take a look at the statistics and the rhetoric after 9/11 it should provide you with a clue?

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Just another quick one, and i am going to have to be so carefull how i put this, it is so easy to be called a troll if you do not go along with a lot of the old bo****x that is poseted on this site.

One minute a lot of you are saying that the USA pulled out all the stops in order to preven a crash after 9/11, then in the next thread mosty of you are saying it was a conspiracy.

Most of you Guys are just too desperate, you will get better days(if better days mean lower property prices), but you must be driving yourself nuts waiting for all to happen, it is a lovely spring day out there, log of this ridiculous site and take a breather.

Sam

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Just another quick one, and i am going to have to be so carefull how i put this, it is so easy to be called a troll if you do not go along with a lot of the old bo****x that is poseted on this site.

One minute a lot of you are saying that the USA pulled out all the stops in order to preven a crash after 9/11, then in the next thread mosty of you are saying it was a conspiracy.

Most of you Guys are just too desperate, you will get better days(if better days mean lower property prices), but you must be driving yourself nuts waiting for all to happen, it is a lovely spring day out there, log of this ridiculous site and take a breather.

Sam

I suggest you do some research on the subject its a well known fact America stated it was "spending itself out of trouble" your only fooling yourself if you don,t look into this and see what policy was in place at the time.

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I was talking to a work collegue this morning re: house prices (a good guy, he's actually trying to listen rather than being a sheeple), something I said to him and then whilst reading something on another thread (about debt) made me came to a realisation.

A House price crash is inevitable! (stick with me). I get the feeling we can't see the woods for the tree here (bears and bulls). We argue on here about statistical release after statistical release, interest rate changes, currency, debt even oil suppy, most of it is short term.

Nothing lasts forever, the realisation I came to is sooner or later there is going to be an ecconomic shock, a ripple in the calm pond we have been living in. That is definate, inevitable, at some point there will be a problem that our economy will have to face and unfortunatley we have become a fat over indebted couch potato of an economy, years of piling on the pounds (litterally £'s) has made us slow and week and generally unfit. Now when the shock comes (and it will, sooner or later) and no matter what that shock will be, it may give us a heart attack.

Let me explain, we (as a country) have saved less, have no REAL cash behind us, less money to spend (or save) higher bills, higher tax etc (I doubt anyone will argue with that) we are reliying on the price of an asset that has no REAL worth other than what someone else wants to pay for it, we are vulnerable. Now we have gorged ourselves and we are in no fit state to suffer ANY shocks, we have placed ourselves on a nife edge. Think about it. We cannot survive a major shock to our economy, that is a no brainer, another no brainer is we will have to face a challenge/shock at some point in the future. This will lead to a recession of sorts and who will be able to buy your debt off of you? No-one.

You may think I'm stretching to a conclusion about house prices, and you may be right, but my main point is we are in no fit state to ride out a storm & storms I'm afraid are inevitable!

Yes Raven -- I have been saying this for ages - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...opic=12762&st=0

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=27326

But yes - it all looks really scary - more and more scary as time goes on.....: -

"Average owed by every UK adult is approximately £25,195 "

http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debtstats.htm

Edited by eric pebble

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I suggest you do some research on the subject its a well known fact America stated it was "spending itself out of trouble" your only fooling yourself if you don,t look into this and see what policy was in place at the time.

The point i was trying to make, which you seem to have missed , is that 9/11 was an unexpected attack one minute and a planned conspiracy the next, on this site anyway.

Sam

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The point i was trying to make, which you seem to have missed , is that 9/11 was an unexpected attack one minute and a planned conspiracy the next, on this site anyway.

Sam

I concur (IMO) conspiracy theory for the attack 9/11 to be b*llox.

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there wasnt a property bubble to burst in 9/11/01,

so i dont know what your on about here...?

your just saying anything.

So why didn't you buy then?

It was tanking.

That was when IR's plumited to pay for the war.

You have the potential to have made a great deal of money.

But you havent made it until you sell.

You have no idea why the market went up, you don't understand why it will come down.

The arguments that you make are the same that have been made about every boom market by bulls for millenia.

A tru bull understands that they have invested and also understands why he must leave the market at the right time.

You are not a bull, none on here are, you are merely those that bulls sold too.

A bull is not the blinkered belief that money can be made in a market, its the knowledge that money can be made and how to do so.

You are the mark.

Tell me of another market out there that didn't turn?

Tell me why prices were not this high before??

understand, following the herd cannot make people rich.

Other wise the herd would always have been rich.

The herd is from whom the wolves make money. Believe as the herd believes and fall prey to the wolves.

TTRTR's.

you are the mark.

You obviously don't know then that most of the rate cuts in the UK were made pre 9/11 - do you?

A true bear knows what they speak of, a worried soul makes it up as they go.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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