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House Prices Rose In March - Halifax +0.9%

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Guest consa

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices rose 0.9 percent on the month in March, giving a three-month annual increase of 6.2 percent, according to the Halifax house price survey published on Thursday.

That followed a monthly jump of 1.4 percent and three-month annual inflation of 5.5 percent originally reported for February.

The nation's largest mortgage lender said the average price of a home was a seasonally-adjusted 175,215 pounds in March.

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...CES-HALIFAX.xml

The full report:-

==================

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/Ho...ndexMar2006.doc

Edited by consa

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Guest consa

I get the feeling they are all preparing for something nasty:

Labour market weakening, the continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings and pressure on householders' finances from the recent hikes in utility and council tax bills are, however, expected to curb demand. UK house prices are forecast to rise by 3% in 2006, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation
The weakening in the labour market and the continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings are expected to curb housing demand. At the same time, the recently announced substantial increases in utility bills and above inflation council tax rises will put pressure on householders' finances, also dampening housing demand. These developments should prevent a sustained acceleration in house price inflation

So they said House prices rose,-0.2 Jan, 1.4% Feb, 0.9% March, I make that 2.1%, are we going to get +0.1% every month for the rest of the year??

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Like how they add that this is only temporary and won't last long. Just enough of a negative so that the mpc don't start getting the hoses out and put in a rate hike.

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Like how they add that this is only temporary and won't last long. Just enough of a negative so that the mpc don't start getting the hoses out and put in a rate hike.

Nice analysis. They have to keep the statistics finely balanced so as not to upset Gordon's apple cart. What is interesting, if the Halifax news is accurate, is the rate of slowdown is quite abrupt:

"
Building society Halifax said house prices increased by 0.9% in March and by 1.6% for the first quarter of 2006. The rise in prices was slower than the 2.3% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2005
."

Going from a Q rise of 2.3% down to 1.6% is a 30% DROP (not a Spring Bounce where the rate of increase went UP). If this rate continues steadily we should be deep into negative territory by the end of the year. If, that is, there are no wild cards such as Bird Flu or an interest rate hike caused by pressure from other nations all hiking their rates.

Overall, Halifax is good news for the HPC. :)

Edited by Realistbear

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If this rate continues steadily we should be deep into negative territory by the end of the year.

I must admit I don't really believe this sort of extrapolation anymore, since it was predicted for last year and never happened.

I still haven't forgotten Riser's "once HPI gets to 0 it crashes" graph. I don't think it's made it there yet.

:(

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Guest Winners and Losers

Good News! Everyone will put their prices up (again), making property even more unaffordable and leading to over supply.

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Guest Winners and Losers

C'mon Bank Of England, curb this lunacy!

Hello? Hello? BoE? Is anyone there? Hellooo..........

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You might as well have the numbers as well NSA and SA, HPI at 7.4%

		NSA	NSA %	SA 	SA %	YoYJan	2004	142,105	 1.0%	145,737	 2.3%	18.3%Feb	2004	145,820	 2.6%	148,183	 1.7%	17.9%Mar	2004	149,816	 2.7%	151,509	 2.2%	19.0%Apr	2004	154,433	 3.1%	154,449	 1.9%	20.4%May	2004	159,103	 3.0%	157,785	 2.2%	21.8%Jun	2004	161,968	 1.8%	159,685	 1.2%	22.3%Jul	2004	163,505	 0.9%	161,466	 1.1%	22.2%Aug	2004	161,565	-1.2%	160,584	-0.5%	19.3%Sep	2004	163,423	 1.2%	162,669	 1.3%	19.8%Oct	2004	162,241	-0.7%	160,639	-1.2%	16.4%Nov	2004	160,658	-1.0%	160,259	-0.2%	14.3%Dec	2004	160,563	-0.1%	162,493	 1.4%	14.2%Jan	2005	159,956	-0.4%	163,682	 0.7%	12.6%Feb	2005	159,750	-0.1%	162,824	-0.5%	 9.6%Mar	2005	161,809	 1.3%	163,592	 0.5%	 8.0%Apr	2005	163,428	 1.0%	163,458	-0.1%	 5.8%May	2005	164,242	 0.5%	162,411	-0.6%	 3.2%Jun	2005	165,501	 0.8%	162,693	 0.2%	 2.2%Jul	2005	165,775	 0.2%	163,317	 0.4%	 1.4%Aug	2005	167,699	 1.2%	166,367	 1.9%	 3.8%Sep	2005	169,465	 1.1%	168,179	 1.1%	 3.7%Oct	2005	169,010	-0.3%	168,136	 0.0%	 4.2%Nov	2005	169,891	 0.5%	169,872	 1.0%	 5.7%Dec	2005	169,438	-0.3%	171,438	 0.9%	 5.5%Jan	2006	166,744	-1.6%	171,058	-0.2%	 4.2%Feb	2006	170,440	 2.2%	173,613	 1.5%	 6.7%Mar	2006	173,778	 2.0%	175,215	 0.9%	 7.4%

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On that basis HPI to hit double figures by July... oh well nevermind . I now think all this talk of an imminent crash is utter rubbish. HPI has risen for months now and more people will be sure to start buying now srping is here leading into the summer . With a potential interest rate cut in the summer too that will keep momentum going well into next year....

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Housing demand remains well underpinned by a strengthening economy, high employment and low interest rates. Labour market weakening, the continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings and pressure on householders' finances from the recent hikes in utility and council tax bills are, however, expected to curb demand.

So the economy is strenthening and the labour market weakening at the same time.

Who writes these reports - monkeys?

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On that basis HPI to hit double figures by July... oh well nevermind . I now think all this talk of an imminent crash is utter rubbish. HPI has risen for months now and more people will be sure to start buying now srping is here leading into the summer . With a potential interest rate cut in the summer too that will keep momentum going well into next year....

What potential for an IR cut is that then? Oh, the one not priced into the IR spreads... you could make yourself some money there pal... just put all your cash short on Uk IRs.... safely sorted :P

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So the economy is strenthening and the labour market weakening at the same time.

Who writes these reports - monkeys?

Why is this not possible, employment lags the economy. The economy is growing below trend, and therefore is not generating enough jobs, However the economy is indeed picking up at present.

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On that basis HPI to hit double figures by July... oh well nevermind . I now think all this talk of an imminent crash is utter rubbish. HPI has risen for months now and more people will be sure to start buying now srping is here leading into the summer . With a potential interest rate cut in the summer too that will keep momentum going well into next year....

Why a cut? Its World Cup season! People will be guzzling beer, buying football shirts, eating out, buying bbqs/food etc - surely this will mean more money out there? ;)

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According to the Halifax it bring the ANNUAL rise to 6.2%.

Now, they have predicted an ANNUAL 3% RISE for 2006.

Have I missed something here. Does that mean that over the remaining part of the year, house price inflation has to equal around 0% in order to bring the ANNUAL figure down to 3% ? I'm confused.

So surely Halifax should come out and say, "Houses aren't going to rise for the rest of the year".

Any bets?

Edited by Come On Down

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I must admit I don't really believe this sort of extrapolation anymore, since it was predicted for last year and never happened.

I still haven't forgotten Riser's "once HPI gets to 0 it crashes" graph. I don't think it's made it there yet.

:(

Neither do I.

I agree VI can distort stats to an extent, but we have to admit that at best, until now, prices have stabilized not crashed :(

HPI have been so strong that a single .25 cut could reignite the market again !?!? :angry:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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