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The Crashing Pound Theory Is Nonsense

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Lots of wishful thinking on the behalf of doom mongers.

I fully acknowledge that the British economy has been progressively trashed over the years and has been sold down the river by self serving politicians.

However, the same must be said for virtually every other Western Nation, there are very few that actually hold a surplus balance of payments, currently Sweden, Denmark and Germany do, perhaps a few others.

The point is, in troubled times every country will want to devalue, so it's all very well saying that the GBP is looking at a sharp fall, but against what ?

The GBP has been one of the most stable currencies around for the last 25 years or more, it is in no more trouble than 95% of the other Western nations, all of whom will be looking to devalue.

The only currencies that the GBP MAY fall against are the Asian currencies, however when Japan got too big for its boots in the early 90s the USA effectively bankrupted it into 15 years of deflation.

Do not understimate the power of the Western vested interests.

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The only currencies that the GBP MAY fall against are the Asian currencies

Yawn.

The pound is down 10% against the US dollar in the last year, 20% against the Canadian dollar, and 10% against the Mexican Peso, to name just three.

And you think it's not going to fall further if we don't raise rates while the rest of the world does? The only hope is that the US dollar sinks faster than we do, but that won't help against other currencies like the Euro.

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Lots of wishful thinking on the behalf of doom mongers.

I fully acknowledge that the British economy has been progressively trashed over the years and has been sold down the river by self serving politicians.

However, the same must be said for virtually every other Western Nation, there are very few that actually hold a surplus balance of payments, currently Sweden, Denmark and Germany do, perhaps a few others.

The point is, in troubled times every country will want to devalue, so it's all very well saying that the GBP is looking at a sharp fall, but against what ?

The GBP has been one of the most stable currencies around for the last 25 years or more, it is in no more trouble than 95% of the other Western nations, all of whom will be looking to devalue.

The only currencies that the GBP MAY fall against are the Asian currencies, however when Japan got too big for its boots in the early 90s the USA effectively bankrupted it into 15 years of deflation.

Do not understimate the power of the Western vested interests.

The pound crashed in the early 1990's when Soros and Co. pulled the plug--I was holding UKP at the time and got out about 2 days before the pound dropped from around 2.00 to the US$ down to about 1.50 in a few days. I believe this was known as "Black Wednesday." In the late 1970's the pound hit a bottom of 1.05 against the US$. The UKP tends to be unstable when bubbles exist as they do now.

You are right about many not knowing against which currencies the pound will crash in relation to next. Most EU countries do not have the personal debt problems that exist in the UK where debt is 2/3rd of GNP. The Europeans do not owe massive amounts on credit cards or mortgages as their homes are cheaper and there has been less internal speculation. I believe the UK has more credit card debt than all oof the EU nations put together.

The creditors are starting to call in the loans with tightening IR world wide in reaction to the Japanese moves that begun on 20th March. The Asian creditors have the money and they will set the IR whether the UK likes it or not. It is difficult to predict which way the US will go although my guess is that they will ride out the coming storm given the size of their economy and the dependence they have created among their Asian creditors who do not want a devalued dollar to be paid back to them.

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Lots of wishful thinking on the behalf of doom mongers.

I fully acknowledge that the British economy has been progressively trashed over the years and has been sold down the river by self serving politicians.

However, the same must be said for virtually every other Western Nation, there are very few that actually hold a surplus balance of payments, currently Sweden, Denmark and Germany do, perhaps a few others.

The point is, in troubled times every country will want to devalue, so it's all very well saying that the GBP is looking at a sharp fall, but against what ?

The GBP has been one of the most stable currencies around for the last 25 years or more, it is in no more trouble than 95% of the other Western nations, all of whom will be looking to devalue.

The only currencies that the GBP MAY fall against are the Asian currencies, however when Japan got too big for its boots in the early 90s the USA effectively bankrupted it into 15 years of deflation.

Do not understimate the power of the Western vested interests.

I think there are two angles to this.

The fact that our north sea oil and gas are depleting, at an even faster rate than forecast, means we have a different set of balance of payments issues to that of europe.

As the energy situation gets worse year on year it will put increasing pressure on GBP to devalue against the Euro.

Secondly when the USD eventually tanks against the Asian currencies, and it will, we are all going to be in deep shit.

The United States is almost certainly set for (hyper)inflation which will reduce their standard of living massively. Oil in particular will suddenly become *a lot* more expensive for them, driving further inflation.

I'm guessing GBP will be dragged down with it when this eventually happens. And then we'll probably be integrated into the Eurozone as a solution to the crisis.

House prices at this point will probably be totally irrelevant in terms of todays thinking. But in real-terms I think they'll certainly be lower. All these £1 million pound houses in london aren't going to be worth that if the economy is in tatters.

On the other hand I've heard speculation that if the chinese dumps the dollar it will cause total meltdown and all fiat currencies will effectively become meaningless.

Whichever way you look at it, it's bad.

Best bet is to hold gold.

With energy set to decline all fiat currencies are ultimately in a race to the bottom.

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Guest muttley

Lots of wishful thinking on the behalf of doom mongers.

I agree.

There is a tendency on this site to pick a "crash" scenario, and try to make the latest daily figures back them up.

House prices are at an all time high.They will either correct, or this is the new paradigm.Personally, I believe they will correct, but I think this will be drawn out- no sudden fix.

Try to keep an open mind.If you pin all your hopes on a rise in Interest Rates (via inflation, via collapse in the pound) you may find yourself demoralised by a possible IR cut.

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Lots of wishful thinking on the behalf of doom mongers.

I fully acknowledge that the British economy has been progressively trashed over the years and has been sold down the river by self serving politicians.

..... few that actually hold a surplus balance of payments........Germany do....

The point is, in troubled times every country will want to devalue, so it's all very well saying that the GBP is looking at a sharp fall, but against what ?

ehh...Against the German currency (AKA the Euro)?

If the dollar devalues the only logical currency for trading is the Euro.

I think there are two angles to this.

The fact that our north sea oil and gas are depleting, at an even faster rate than forecast, means we have a different set of balance of payments issues to that of europe.

As the energy situation gets worse year on year..... the USD eventually tanks ...... we'll probably be integrated into the Eurozone as a solution to the crisis.

House prices at this point will probably be totally irrelevant in terms of todays thinking.

Good point. New thinking is whats required

Best bet is to hold gold. But thats old thinking, surely??!!??

Good points here.

May I coin another phrase to describe the situation? How about the "Energy Emergency"?

We are at the steppes of an Energy Emergency. ;)

Not sure about gold..does it burn?

Personally, I believe they will correct, but I think this will be drawn out- no sudden fix.

Indeed, see above. This is shaping up to be a very protracted affair - up to 10 years.

Either way, crash or no crash, IR or terrorist attack trigger - property is a very bum investment.

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I think there are two angles to this.

The fact that our north sea oil and gas are depleting, at an even faster rate than forecast, means we have a different set of balance of payments issues to that of europe.

As the energy situation gets worse year on year it will put increasing pressure on GBP to devalue against the Euro.

Secondly when the USD eventually tanks against the Asian currencies, and it will, we are all going to be in deep shit.

The United States is almost certainly set for (hyper)inflation which will reduce their standard of living massively. Oil in particular will suddenly become *a lot* more expensive for them, driving further inflation.

I'm guessing GBP will be dragged down with it when this eventually happens. And then we'll probably be integrated into the Eurozone as a solution to the crisis.

House prices at this point will probably be totally irrelevant in terms of todays thinking. But in real-terms I think they'll certainly be lower. All these £1 million pound houses in london aren't going to be worth that if the economy is in tatters.

Clearly "The Crashing Pound Theory is Nonsense" theory is nonsense.

If the worldwide trend in IRs is up, the UK - no matter how much it may want to keep IRs down will have to put them up.

What counts is GBP vs EURO. If that tanks, GBP disappears as the UK joins the EURO as a 'quick fix'.

On the other hand I've heard speculation that if the chinese dumps the dollar it will cause total meltdown and all fiat currencies will effectively become meaningless.

Whichever way you look at it, it's bad.

Best bet is to hold gold.

With energy set to decline all fiat currencies are ultimately in a race to the bottom.

I remember speculation during the Cold War that the Soviets held massive gold reserves which they would dump on international markets all at once to collapse Western economies and bring about revolution.

When communism collapsed, the estimated quantity of gold was no longer there (though that is not to say that it was never there).

Maybe the, let's not forget, "communist" Chinese are planning a similar strategy... :ph34r:

Edited by newbie

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Not sure about gold..does it burn?

If you agree that energy will be declining in the near future;

then gold is really a no brainer.

To quote from Mike Ruppert's latest DVD:

"money, represents the ability to do work"

"energy is the ability to do work"

If there is declining energy available to do work then paper

money becomes worth less and less until it ultimately becomes worthless.

All currencies are in decline vs Gold. It's just that some are

declining at a faster rate than others.

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What counts is GBP vs EURO. If that tanks, GBP disappears as the UK joins the EURO as a 'quick fix'.

I remember speculation during the Cold War that the Soviets held massive gold reserves which they would dump on international markets all at once to collapse Western economies and bring about revolution.

When communism collapsed, the estimated quantity of gold was no longer there (though that is not to say that it was never there).

Maybe the, let's not forget, "communist" Chinese are planning a similar strategy... :ph34r:

Large quantities of gold have a habit of going missing in times of war and economic crises.

I've no doubt the chinese do have some sort of long-term strategy; the goal of which

I'm not sure about.

I used to believe that we were set for the chinese taking over

the whole world; after they've crashed our western economies.

They could just step in and enslave us.

However I'm not so sure it's that simple anymore.

The same elites that many on this forum claim own and control our central

banks and manipulate our money supply are also responsible for funding

Mao Tse-Tung; the guy that is largely responsible for making China the

totalitarian state that it is today. I'm not sure exactly how far this

influence extends.

If you listen to more far-out conspiracy theorists, that take the conspiratorial

view of history, and banking, they all say the same thing. That the banking elites

agenda is to bring about one world (fascist) government, with a one world currency.

And that they want to get rid of the middle-class and bring about a new age of

feudalism. If that wasn't bad enough they also want to reduce the world's population

by 85%.

It seems to me the housing bubble is merely a conduit to transfer massive amounts

of wealth away from the general population, effectively destroying the middle-class.

And enabling the elites to further consolidate economic and political power.

The chinese model of government seems to be a sort of experiment they're running

to see how well it would work if they managed to establish world government.

I can see one of two things happening after the dollar falls off a cliff.

The euro steps in as the world's reserve currency, and eventually gets pushed

as a global currency (to stop this crisis happening again). Or everything collapses

and a new currency is introduced; for the same purpose.

Or perhaps this is all a crock of paranoid tin-foil hat wearing shit;

and none of it will happen and we'll all live happily ever after.

:unsure:

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=26129&hl=

SOme how energy spikes up say crude takes out $200 or even $400... Thais can come from Iran strike or some thing else that leads to and Opec emargo ar some other energy related geopolitical situation comming together.

This forces official infaltion above targets and gives the Central banks an excuse to send rates up.

In this senario capital flight from investments start cos organisations realise there investied cash is not doing well as by now recession and negative economict sentiment abound.

Capital leaves Uk and is converted Disproporitnatley converted to USD more than other currancies because most will need USD to buy extreemly expensive enrgy (will need loadsa USD).

On its own this streagthens USD

And at the same time Need alot of USD to service dollor denominated debts...Significant number of recent debts over the last 2 years will be from a time the USD was weak so the currancy risk and high interest rates compound the amount of ther currenciers sold to raise enough USD to service the debts.

This adds to the strengthening of USD

Over here the result is sterlin gets trashed and BOE need to crack up higher and for longer to limit this importation of inflation via weak sterling this feeds back to increase capital flight from sterlin.

At the moment of victory the situations and nature of things become all alighned so that it seems all the forces of nature are working to make it effort less.

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Yawn.

The pound is down 10% against the US dollar in the last year, 20% against the Canadian dollar, and 10% against the Mexican Peso, to name just three.

And you think it's not going to fall further if we don't raise rates while the rest of the world does? The only hope is that the US dollar sinks faster than we do, but that won't help against other currencies like the Euro.

Thats why when the crunch comes we'll join the Euro. IR's at 2.5%....mmm hardly the recipe for a crash.

Edited by nodumsunreader

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Guest muttley

Thats why when the crunch comes we'll join the Euro. IR's at 2.5%....mmm hardly the recipe for a crash.

Not without another General Election we won't.

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Guest muttley

Or a referendum where both main parties would have no choice but to support joining.

That is pretty unlikely, IMHO.The Conservatives would have to ditch an election promise, purely to prop up a failing Labour government.

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I see that after all the hysterics of the last few days the GBP is back up against the Euro, USD, and most other Western currencies.

Look at the bigger picture, not the one day hysterics and headlines.

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Lots of wishful thinking on the behalf of doom mongers.

I fully acknowledge that the British economy has been progressively trashed over the years and has been sold down the river by self serving politicians.

However, the same must be said for virtually every other Western Nation, there are very few that actually hold a surplus balance of payments, currently Sweden, Denmark and Germany do, perhaps a few others.

The point is, in troubled times every country will want to devalue, so it's all very well saying that the GBP is looking at a sharp fall, but against what ?

The GBP has been one of the most stable currencies around for the last 25 years or more, it is in no more trouble than 95% of the other Western nations, all of whom will be looking to devalue.

The only currencies that the GBP MAY fall against are the Asian currencies, however when Japan got too big for its boots in the early 90s the USA effectively bankrupted it into 15 years of deflation.

Do not understimate the power of the Western vested interests.

Joined 5th April 06, already a forum expert, sounds like, looks like and smells like a TROLL POST!!

Asss Wipe.......

Ignor mode on

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The point is that the pound won't crash - it just doesn't stand up to any real examination.

Its the only thing left for you desperate bears to cling onto, but even that will wear thin by June, when despite all the hot air on here, the £ will be hardly changed on the ERI basis.

I'm going to bide my time, but in June, I'm sorry but I'm going to taunt RealistBear - he deserves it, after all the misleading posts he's been putting up recently.

I think he's just going after the zzg title of most prolific poster - zzg was a nutter too, and finally gave up on the whole thing, + the Monkey + a whole host of others.

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I think there are two angles to this.

I'm guessing GBP will be dragged down with it when this eventually happens. And then we'll probably be integrated into the Eurozone as a solution to the crisis.

..I wouldn't bet on that....the BAE thing today looks like a strategic position to me.

...we are sticking with the US.

....even the french can't get hold of bell labs via the purchase of lucent,alcatel have had to sell the satellite gear to thales,and lucent won't share the sensitive stuff.

BAE is in the driving seat,big takeover by lockheed or a merger with raytheon looks likely.

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Well Randall, if you can't cope with an alternative viewpoint then you shouldn't be on a forum.

Or is it only a forum for those who say the right thing, whatever that may be?

we have no problem with alternative points of view, just don't pretend you are a 'BRAND NEW POSTER'

Remember, your IP address may not back up that position.. ;-)

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Guest muttley

I think he's just going after the zzg title of most prolific poster - zzg was a nutter too, and finally gave up on the whole thing, + the Monkey + a whole host of others.

BBB

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sometimes on mid winter sunsets i look out to sea. as i gaze across the sanguine seagull cut clifftops and auburn pebble thrown shores, i often wonder what happened to the monkey and his quest for housing truth ?

was he rewrded for his boldness, his envisions ?

or has he languished his soul to a lamenting sonnet of ccjs.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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