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Down with the BBC

Bird Flu In Uk

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Well, after two thirds of the population die, there'll be lots of houses and few young buyers :).

Back in reality land, according to an article a couple of weeks ago it seems that bird flu would be hard to transmit from human to human since it lives in the lower levels of the lungs and hence doesn't get coughed out very much: and it would need several mutated genes to change that.

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Why would it mean a crash? Never quite understood the connection myself? :unsure:

Real things become important in crises. Not speculation. If HPs wernt overvalued then they would be fine for example food. Not overvalued and a necessity so stable in cirses.

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Why would it mean a crash? Never quite understood the connection myself? :unsure:

Well, there'll be a crash if the virus started killing off the human population - but I'd prefer high house prices :lol:

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Guest Winners and Losers

It will not pass to humans until 2008, enough time for everyone to get vaccinated.

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Well, after two thirds of the population die, there'll be lots of houses and few young buyers :).

Back in reality land, according to an article a couple of weeks ago it seems that bird flu would be hard to transmit from human to human since it lives in the lower levels of the lungs and hence doesn't get coughed out very much: and it would need several mutated genes to change that.

Needs 1 gene to mutate. And Goes to the lungs. The infection has already passed on by the time you get the effects. Well most of it like all diseases

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The news i hear is that from the Primary care trust is that:

a pandemic flu hits the world every 11 years roughly; we are 36 years overdue. So it is a question of WHEN not IF

this is because there is a gentic shift in the virus DNA, which means its completely new and we do not have any antibodies against it. This is different to genetic drift, where there are small changes enough so that we get the cold/flu like symtoms day to day, and get beter.

we dont know what this "new virus" (human-human) will be like, we dont know the mortality rate

however the mortality of the bird-human strain is something like 50-100% in poor countries. scary it is.

the spanish flu in 1800 killed if i recall 50 million worldwide. The last 2 pandemics (hong kong flu, and asian flu) only killed 1 million each. this is because of the availablilty of antibiotics, that deal with secondary infections might have helped

hopefully people will get the new flu - be off work 5-8 days and get better. If need be, they get antibiotics for secondary bacteria infections as the immune system is too busy dealing with the virus

what we are being told is to stock up on antibitotics and worse case scenairo prepare for upto 50% of workforce to become ill.

What the unknowns are is the mortality rate - however the last two pandemics have been favourable and not crippled the world

HOWEVER - many people maybe off work, so infrastructure may come to a holt - e.g. obtaining medicines, food, water etc may be more difficult

There is no vaccine because we dont know the structure of the new virus yet - it wont be available for months after the outbreak

We dont know WHEN its going to come maybe tommorow, 1 or 5 years time. But we are well overdue for a pandemic (and a HPC)

Tamiflu and similuar drugs - we dont know if it will work (but that might be a lie as the goverment is stockpiliing like no tommorow)

Masks dont provide 100% protection - BUT useful neitherless, to prevent hand to nasal mucosal transmission, and reduce inhalation of virus particles to a degree

There thats the lowdown

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My immune system is hard as f*ck, im thinking of selling my blood on ebay when the time comes :lol::)

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Talk about timing weren't hundred of vets and govternment folks involved in a bird flu test today? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4878198.stm

I bet that was fun in that office....

"hey guys... there's someone on the phone saying we've found bird flu in Fife"

"nah they're having a laugh...... the excercise is in Norfolk"

Damn you beat me to it. just read that now.

Yes can picture it in the office.

Thanks NANM. good lowdown. I agree with the Tamiflu conspiracy lol

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My prediction for bird flu.

1. During 2006, H5N1 infects all wild bird populations in Asia, Europe and Africa.

2. During 2007, H5N1 infects all wild bird populations in Australasia and the Americas.

3. For a couple of years the media screams "panic panic".

4. However, during this time the only human deaths are a few thousand per year in poor countries where wild birds intermingle with domestic poultry and domestic poultry intermingles in close contact with humans. And maybe a few tens of people who die in rich countries.

5. Everyone then starts to believe that H5N1 is a poor country's problem.

6. The low levels of death continue for about 5 years. There are vague, underfunded attempts to elminate H5N1 from domestic poultry in poor countries, but they keep getting re-infected from wild birds.

7. Ten years from now, a child is playing with a dead chicken in some poor country, and contracts H5N1. Inside the child, the H5N1 mutates into a human transmittable form.

8. The new virus spreads quickly and hundreds of millions if not billions of people die in rich and poor countries.

So you can see, it is not really what happens with wild birds in rich countries that is important, but what happens with domestic poultry in poor countries.

frugalista

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My prediction for bird flu.

7. Ten years from now, a child is playing with a dead chicken in some poor country, and contracts H5N1. Inside the child, the H5N1 mutates into a human transmittable form.

If you could give me the child's name, I will ensure his/her parents never meet (dons shades and leather jacket, loads Uzi)........

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8. The new virus spreads quickly and hundreds of millions if not billions of people die in rich and poor countries.

frugalista

Or it could happen today.

Looking on the bright side, You can get a kg of frozen chicken breast from lidl for £1 (maybe £1.5) at the moment.

I think the birds are getting us back for all the mean things we do to them

http://home.nycap.rr.com/useless/headless_chicken/

Other people in Mike's hometown began to chop the heads off of their own chickens in an attempt to get in on the scheme. One copycat headless rooster was named Lucky and he managed to live for eleven days before bashing himself into a stovepipe and dying

mike2.jpg

post-2255-1144269974.jpg

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The wild card is here.

All bets are off.

Hi,

I work in Canada often on business. I remember sarrs hitting Toronto, it caused a lot of panic and people stayed indoors for a while. After a year or so, it was still in people's memories but life was pretty much back to normal, from what I could tell. I think it would be very much the same here except maybe for London which is a very densely populated city with a crowded public transport system (far better breeding ground for influenza than toronto which is spacious and open with less crowded transport and where people tend to stay indoors anyway for 4 months of the year). Then again, Tokyo didn't fall off the edge of the map when sarrs struck (a more similar city to London) but if it is going to cause a problem, I think we will need some new news about genetic mutation of the current strain and a few cases in London before genuine mass panic would hit like the initial deaths in Toronto. In which case, I would make like the Gypsies on channel 4, buy a plot of land in the green belt and hitch a caravan up for a couple of years with a diesel generator, rain water collector, underground bunker of tinned foods and a shotgun. And a compass and a map and a flint. On the positive side, it may disuade mongolian illegals not to go roasting HRM Liz's swans in hyde park late at night.

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Dammit boom and bust, you beat me to it,

In the very best southern US accent,

"i think its time to buy me a jenny, house in the hills and a shotgun"

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Needs 1 gene to mutate.

Not according to these guys:

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art...rticlekey=60641

"H5N1 colonizes a much deeper, tough-to-access region of the lung -- making infection more difficult to spread and treat in humans, the researchers said."

"But Siegel believes the virus would have to undergo a number of complex genetic mutations to move up the respiratory tract. "And even if it does, that's still not an assumption that it's going to cause a severe pandemic," he said."

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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