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Waiting Patiently

Projected Future Interest Rates

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Dollar, sterling, euro, yen etc. Just updated ..............

http://members.cox.net/dmrc/Projected_Rates.htm

They aren't the because, the interest rates that cash flows of non-Treasury securities will be discounted at will include a risk premium over the Treasury yield for that maturity. The risk premium will incorporate such factors as that issuer's percieved credit quality, the issue's expected liquidity, and taxability of income.

So need to reduce the interest rate expectations at six months by about 0.15% and up to about 0.2% for longer.

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They aren't the because, the interest rates that cash flows of non-Treasury securities will be discounted at will include a risk premium over the Treasury yield for that maturity. The risk premium will incorporate such factors as that issuer's percieved credit quality, the issue's expected liquidity, and taxability of income.

So need to reduce the interest rate expectations at six months by about 0.15% and up to about 0.2% for longer.

are you sure this hasnt been added to the projections? What is your data suggesting, do you have similar graphs you can post?

Surly if you have to adjust by 0.2% downwards it means the spread after 6 months is also 0.2% upwards, the further away from now the bigger the spread, with this data showing the best guess....

Edited by moosetea

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are you sure this hasnt been added to the projections? What is your data suggesting, do you have similar graphs you can post?

Surly if you have to adjust by 0.2% downwards it means the spread after 6 months is also 0.2% upwards, the further away from now the bigger the spread, with this data showing the best guess....

Yep

Short sterling now 95.36 Sept. So thats 4.64% less 0.15% gives 4.49%

If you want the proper numbers, use the BBA repo number (Same as the Adjusted Short Sterling)

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=228&a=1451

1W	4.536672W	4.475003W	4.463331M	4.446672M	4.446673M	4.455006M	4.498339M	4.555001Y	4.61167

Or the BOE yield curve (However that seem to be being distorted downwards, because of the pension funds buying)

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...curve/index.htm

04 Apr 06	years:4.42	0.54.39	1.04.40	1.54.41	2.04.42	2.54.42	3.04.41	3.54.41	4.04.41	4.54.40	5.04.40	5.54.39	6.04.37	6.54.36	7.04.34	7.54.32	8.04.30	8.54.28	9.04.26	9.54.23	10.04.21	10.54.19	11.04.17	11.54.14	12.04.12	12.54.09	13.04.06	13.54.03	14.04.00	14.53.96	15.03.93	15.53.89	16.03.86	16.53.83	17.03.79	17.53.76	18.03.73	18.53.70	19.03.67	19.53.65	20.03.63	20.53.61	21.03.59	21.53.57	22.03.56	22.53.54	23.03.53	23.53.52	24.03.51	24.53.51	25.0

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Excellent. If they're accurate, then assume full on crash position in 2008

Why, that is a tiny rise - surely not enough to make any difference? :huh:

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Why, that is a tiny rise - surely not enough to make any difference? :huh:

1% increase in rates will be huge for anyone "stretched" on a mortgage set at 4.49% (or less) thats coming to an end. Think of all the people on IO mortgages too!

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If these figures also represent the maximum wage inflation which is going to occur then I think there's good reason to start taking up a lucrative hobby like Bank Robbery...

- Pye

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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