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Every time the pound drops a tenth of a cent, it gets a mention here. Silence though when it goes up. $1.7595 now. Speculation that the US probably only has one more rate rise to go caused the dollar to weaken. Woman on Bloomberg said 'UK rates unlikely to change this year'.

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I agree!

Unless the pound drops below 1.70 then it should not be mentioned. 1.65 is a battering.

I think there should be a balanced view on here.

BTW did I tell you that rightmove DROPPED to 365 yesterday ;)

TB

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Not so much the pound soaring as the dollar falling. Pound vs Euro tells a different story ;)

exactly £ testing lows vs Euro (our bigggest trading partners) - it's the dollar that is even weaker .

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There is a perception in the world that the "Miracle Economy" based on consumer spending (MEW based) and "low" inflation is worthy of a high pound. When the world wakes up and sees reality the pound will be fortunate to stay above 1.50.

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also slipped versus the dollar on Wednesday after a weaker-than-expected UK services sector survey and an unexpected drop in manufacturing output
.

Pound's overvaluation may be short-lived. The currency markets are manipulated and people make billions on small moves. I would be in anything BUT pounds right now. The truth is going to out very soon and the world will see that a credit bubble economy cannot last much longer.

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And dealers are buying Euros where there is 8%+ unemployment and competition with Asia just as fierce? France stalling and Italy tanking. Something wrong with this picture?

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What difference a couple of hours make: pound back down to 1.751 after heading just short of 1.759 this morning! Traders wary of an overvalued pound against ANY currency?

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What difference a couple of hours make: pound back down to 1.751 after heading just short of 1.759 this morning! Traders wary of an overvalued pound against ANY currency?

I think it is pretty clear you can read anything you want into these movements. Almost a couple of cents up over a couple of days ..... 8 tenths of a cent down ....

American economy is a mess with big borrowing, UK is same, Euroland still inefficient and over regulated, even if govrments want to slow borrowing - the finances are in such a mess they have to keep consumers spending. Low IRs are here for years.

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Not so much the pound soaring as the dollar falling. Pound vs Euro tells a different story ;)

i'm 100% with you on that one

You can not exchange a lot of UDS$ without forcing the exchange rate down and that’s the way money markets work. Everyone want out of the US$ but are so greedy that they think they can drip feed the currency back onto the markets without attracting attention but sooner or later they will all be forced to run for the door at the same time.

We are not talking devaluation here, more a meltdown and IMHO it’s about time too as we are all being forced via PetroDollars to finance the American debt.

Will the £Pound take a battering ! you bet

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I think it is pretty clear you can read anything you want into these movements. Almost a couple of cents up over a couple of days ..... 8 tenths of a cent down ....

American economy is a mess with big borrowing, UK is same, Euroland still inefficient and over regulated, even if govrments want to slow borrowing - the finances are in such a mess they have to keep consumers spending. Low IRs are here for years.

Were it so. IR are no longer under our control but in the hands of the creditors: Japan and China. Remember a .25% hike from the BoJ will ripple through the financial system to 1% in the UK. Japan may eventually want a rate of 2% which means something nasty our end.

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Well, I just did my bit for Sterling and shipped more money off to Canada. I'd been planning my house-buying based on CAN$2 to the pound, so with no sign of the BoE defending the pound I'll take anything better than that for now :).

Edited by MarkG

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Aren't the consequences of a lower pound against the Euro less important than its position in relation to the dollar?

Oil is priced in dollars, and hence exchange rate fluctuations have greater inflationary consequences.

Has anyone got any details about how the UK-EU trade relationship operates, and therefore what the inflationary impact might be of a falling £? What's the trade balance? What are our main imports?

JJ

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Aren't the consequences of a lower pound against the Euro less important than its position in relation to the dollar?

I would have thought that given most commodities are priced in dollars, but a while ago the bulls were saying the value against the dollar didn't matter because most trade was in Euros: they seem to have gone quiet now we're sinking against the Euro.

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Well, I just did my bit for Sterling and shipped more money off to Canada. I'd been planning my house-buying based on CAN$2 to the pound, so with no sign of the BoE defending the pound I'll take anything better than that for now :).

I did my bit two weeks ago in changing £300 into Ghanaian cedis (roughly c16,000 to the £). I still have c190,000 left and will keep this as a memento of my trip and a hedge against further sterling devaluation. The Ghanaians are self-sufficient in energy and have lower material expectations so I reckon they'll do better in any global energy crisis :P

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Aren't the consequences of a lower pound against the Euro less important than its position in relation to the dollar?

Oil is priced in dollars, and hence exchange rate fluctuations have greater inflationary consequences.

Has anyone got any details about how the UK-EU trade relationship operates, and therefore what the inflationary impact might be of a falling £? What's the trade balance? What are our main imports?

JJ

haven't got the figures to hand but think Germany, France and Holland are our most important trading partners. Add up all the Eurozone and nothing comes close. Oh and our gas comes thru pipes under the Channel.

We already run a large deficit with the Eurozone. Forgot where to call up the figures.

Pound is falling vs Euro for the 7th day in a row. Today 1 Euro has gone above 70p for the first time in over a year.

Edited by Sisyphus

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If the £ is really due to tank against the EUR, then MEWing and buying EUROland property doesn't seem like a stupid thing to do...

Of course this assumes that everything else does not change. If property drops significantly in the UK, the continent seems bound to follow. Personally, I think the order will be Ireland, UK, Spain and then it will ripple out to the rest of Europe.

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I did my bit two weeks ago in changing £300 into Ghanaian cedis (roughly c16,000 to the £). I still have c190,000 left and will keep this as a memento of my trip and a hedge against further sterling devaluation. The Ghanaians are self-sufficient in energy and have lower material expectations so I reckon they'll do better in any global energy crisis :P

Alternatively, if things go as badly as many here anticipate during the forthcoming global energy crisis, you can use the currency as fuel.

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haven't got the figures to hand but think Germany, France and Holland are our most important trading partners.

From the CIA Factbook....

Imports:

$483.7 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)

Germany 13%, US 9.3%, France 7.4%, Netherlands 6.6%, Belgium 4.9%, China 4.3%, Italy 4.3% (2004)

Exports:

$372.7 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)

US 15.3%, Germany 10.8%, France 9.2%, Ireland 6.8%, Netherlands 6%, Belgium 5.1%, Spain 4.5%, Italy 4.2% (2004)

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Alternatively, if things go as badly as many here anticipate during the forthcoming global energy crisis, you can use the currency as fuel.

it would be cheaper than buying the equivalent mass in paper. :rolleyes:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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