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Realistbear

Booms, Busts, And Where Opportunities Occur

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http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/3413

This article covers all of the following stages and deals with the BIG question:

So instead of asking, "Is it a bubble?" it's more financially intelligent to ask, "What stage of the bubble are we in?" Then, decide if you should be fearful, greedy, or hibernating.

Stage 1: A financial shock wave

Stage 2: Acceleration

Stage 3: Euphoria

Stage 4: Financial distress

Stage 5: The market reverses, and the boom turns into a bust

Stage 6: The panic begins

Stage 7: The White Knight rides in

Isn't it interesting that a mainline article appears on Yahoo USA whereas in the UK the subject of a "bubble", or reality, is overlooked by the mainstream press?

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http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/3413

This article covers all of the following stages and deals with the BIG question:

So instead of asking, "Is it a bubble?" it's more financially intelligent to ask, "What stage of the bubble are we in?" Then, decide if you should be fearful, greedy, or hibernating.

Stage 1: A financial shock wave

Stage 2: Acceleration

Stage 3: Euphoria

Stage 4: Financial distress

Stage 5: The market reverses, and the boom turns into a bust

Stage 6: The panic begins

Stage 7: The White Knight rides in

Isn't it interesting that a mainline article appears on Yahoo USA whereas in the UK the subject of a "bubble", or reality, is overlooked by the mainstream press?

I hope youre right about a crash as this will be a valuable entry point for many, including many an investor.

I still think we probably need a bid shock trigger to get it moving though.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/3413

This article covers all of the following stages and deals with the BIG question:

So instead of asking, "Is it a bubble?" it's more financially intelligent to ask, "What stage of the bubble are we in?" Then, decide if you should be fearful, greedy, or hibernating.

Stage 1: A financial shock wave

Stage 2: Acceleration

Stage 3: Euphoria

Stage 4: Financial distress

Stage 5: The market reverses, and the boom turns into a bust

Stage 6: The panic begins

Stage 7: The White Knight rides in

Isn't it interesting that a mainline article appears on Yahoo USA whereas in the UK the subject of a "bubble", or reality, is overlooked by the mainstream press?

we are definitely in stage 4!!!....people Maxed out on debt and re-mortgaging to keep afloat,that's a pretty good indication of financial distress.

likewise with companies,if they were not that bothered about costs they would be less reluctant to cut jobs.

but it's not just the IR's that are stinging,it's all the rest of the bills too,and they all add up.

the gas+electricity bill has gone up £400 p.a here.....that would be equivalent to 50bp or so rise in IR's on a typical mortgage.

water is going up too....and council tax.

only the phone is staying put.

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we are definitely in stage 4!!!....people Maxed out on debt and re-mortgaging to keep afloat,that's a pretty good indication of financial distress.

likewise with companies,if they were not that bothered about costs they would be less reluctant to cut jobs.

but it's not just the IR's that are stinging,it's all the rest of the bills too,and they all add up.

the gas+electricity bill has gone up £400 p.a here.....that would be equivalent to 50bp or so rise in IR's on a typical mortgage.

water is going up too....and council tax.

only the phone is staying put.

Yes but MP3 players and hamsters are still cheap.

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Yes but MP3 players and hamsters are still cheap.

Are you telling me there is a hamster in the national inflation basket?

What if it decides to escape, or worse, to eat the prepackaged food items, or gnaw through the DVD player's cables?

frugalista

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Jaws, Avalanche, Wyatt's Huricane, Volcano, House Price Crash .....

Same plot, different actors, different scenarios.

The basic plot is that an expert identifies a hazard but cannot convince the VI's to act as it would cost them money. The expert's credibility is also questionable as at some point he made a wrong prediction. In the end the disaster strikes with great damage and lost of life and the expert is vindicated.

As in the above stories, I do not believe a trigger for HPCis required. The housing market will at some point become so unstable that it will colapse under its own weight. A trigger is just something nice we like to have as reference point where started.

My gutfeel is to trust the experts, the others can go in the water or the ski slopes or whatever take their fancy.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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