This Article Sums Up Exactly How I Am Feeling About Hpi

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Found this to be a very balanced article and sums up how my view of HPI. Be interested in the view of more bearish members.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...4/cnhouse04.xml

[CaptainClamp]

Hmm, it's so balanced it isn't actually saying a lot. Also it isn't backing up its assertions with any numbers.

[Catch22]

basically its a piece built around the lenders press releases, they know affordability is the obvious block on rising prices. They also know positive sentiment is the key to them selling more loans, hence they are now painting a picture that shows house prices being in line with wage inflation. So look lads what we are saying is, it's pointless wasting all that rent money paying your landlords mortgage, you might as well get on the ladder now and have done with it.

Of course if they can can convince the last stubborn bears to buy, who will be left to buy the market ? Anybody fancy being the last guy to buy the "Top" Oh I forgot in this new age of economic cycles there will be no more market tops.

Quote the article:

The orthodox school of thought espoused by Mr Ellis, and indeed most City economists, is that house prices are still unaffordable for first-time buyers.

They argue that either house prices must crash or they must rise at a much slower rate for a number of years, until they are no longer out-of-reach..

Cut out all the, we think, we see, we hope VI stuff and the above is what you get.

The BOE will do this, the BOE will do that.........the BOE will do what external forces, not under it's control dictate it does.

So we will just have to wait and see

You either commit to the market..... stay commited to the market.....or you stay out of the market with your funds on deposit. Dependent on your take on future direction of the market, or the influnce your peers impress on you.

But remember all information released to the general public is designed to influence your view on reality......................it's called Information Management.................I found it is not always to be trusted

You pay's your money and you takes your chances...

Edited April 4, 2006 by Catch22

[BillyShears]

This is how I feel about the state of arguments about the property market.

Bears: The fundamentals and general economic trends indicate that property in the UK is overpriced and that there will be a correction.

Bulls: The market is still going up, you're wrong!

I.e. I think that bears are right in that fundamentals indicate that house prices should go down. But this is based on the house market being rational. Unfortunately, "irrational exuberance" is still strong in some areas.

Billy Shears

[Guest The_Oldie]

According to Halifax's chief economist, Martin Ellis, prices are unlikely to exceed wage inflation (currently 3.5pc) for the next 10-20 years. He claimed that higher household bills will make it harder for indebted households to pay their mortgage costs.

If Mr Ellis is correct, the number of people MEWing will almost certainly decrease over the next 10-20 years.

If indebted households find it harder to pay their mortgage costs, it seems likely that a proportion of houses will be repossessed. High levels of repossessions will probably lead to a house price correction.

Since MEW money is currently propping up the economy, I don't think I'll buy just yet .