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John Smith

Have Previous Crashes Been Predicted?

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Just read a thread along the lines of saying the crash has not and will not happen as "we predict" ... therefore IT WILL NOT HAPPEN and we are all wrong.

So, have previous crashes been predicted? or did they just happen ... sort of silently humming along then BANG!

If they were predicted/or mentioned/discussed in the press, then did people believe/act upon them?

I am too young to remember previous crashes and the events leading up to them ...

Is there too much optimism at the moment along the lines of things will never change/just get better - surely they can't? There appears to be many (seemingly) unconnected events happening which are gradually coming together and making the situation more and more fragile - and something will happen to tip the balance - the inability to predict these synergistic events could catch people out by surprise - more so in a system which seems to have very little slack i.e. too much debt to enable a buffer to manage tough times.

Any views - or am I just wrong ... it would be great if some soft people based theories could be used rather than the same old hard indicators such as record low IR's/low unemployment/affordability/etc ... what about the emergence f!"£$%d off youngsters going on the rampage like in France? What about no inheritances in years to come 'cos its all been spent on pensions? Change in government and subsequent people views?

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IN a free market economy crashes just happen. The economic cycle is unbeatable as no one has managed to create economic perpetual motion. Gordon "Miracle Economy" Brown thought he had beaten the laws of economic gravity by borrowing billions of cheap money from the world banking system to keep HPI going--forever. Gordon thought that perpetually rising house prices would give people perpetual sources of income as the ever rising equity would cover the perpetual MEWs.

What Gordon failed to take into account is the economic cycle. Cheap IR eventually become expensive IR and imbalances self-correct.

Rates have been so low for so long that the economic cycle has a longer and more painful period to go through to adjust the imbalances.

Let us hope that the next chancellor will be known as:

___________" There ain't no free lunch" ___________

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The last crash, in 1989, was predicted in at least 1 newspaper article i remember reading at the time. I recall agreeing with the reasons given for the prediction, and that no-one agreed with me when I relayed it to them.

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i am too young to remember, but what i do know is people on masse do things without thinking.

When a few people start running for the exit, everyone else is going to follow like a stampeed. :lol:

(the clever ones stand by the exit just in case, in the first place)

Edited by notanewmember

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Just read a thread along the lines of saying the crash has not and will not happen as "we predict" ... therefore IT WILL NOT HAPPEN and we are all wrong.

So, have previous crashes been predicted? or did they just happen ... sort of silently humming along then BANG!

If they were predicted/or mentioned/discussed in the press, then did people believe/act upon them?

Well the usual saying is that the bears have successfully predicted 8 of the last 2 crashes.

In fact, a correction is well under way. Annualised HPI is below wage inflation and cost of living inflation (obviously you should not pay any attention to the mickey mouse inflation rate put out by Gordy's spin team).

HTH

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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