Phil Spencer admits that prices have fallen

[hawkeye]

Is Phil Spencer finaly turning Bearish? Probably not, but at least he is starting to include some negative news in his articles, even if still says that it is the right time to buy.

The one really bullish comment that I find really amazing, is his assumption that the public have accepted that there is NOT going to be a crash. On what research has he based this assumption on!!!!!!!!

"The Bank of England is getting exactly what it wanted; the medicine is working. They have successfully manipulated economy and interest rates to slow the housing market without inflicting serious injury upon it.

Activity levels remain low. Public sentiment has finally accepted there will not be a crash, however, buyers and sellers continue to look in opposite directions. Sellers are waiting for prices to pick up again at the start of next year and buyers anticipate better deals in the run up to Christmas. There is true in both scenarios. Generally speaking the supply of fresh property to the market is at reasonable levels for this time of year and the very top of the market is the busiest. However, the market is as polarised as ever with different areas and price brackets behaving independently from one another.

There are a lot less buyers around which means they can be very choosy about what they buy and how much they pay. The majority of sales agents seem to have adjusted their asking prices to reflect the buyers market but over the coming month, as stock levels begin to dwindle, they will find it tempting to over-value in order to win instructions. We will be monitoring the situation closely.

Primelocation's survey of the prime London market reveals an increase to average sales value of +0.6% during October. In September there was 14.9% more stock on the market than there had been six months previously - but in October this fell back by -2.0%. Looking across the entire country October figures record price falls of -0.4% (Nationwide) and -1.1% (Halifax). Whilst these statistics might appear gloomy - let's remember annual house price inflation this year stands at +15.3%.

The long-term picture does remain one of growth, albeit at a slower pace. Over the past 20 years house prices in the Capital have risen at an average compound rate of 10% - analysts are now saying long-term growth is likely to be no more than 4 or 5%. Although when you consider that the economy is strong, inflation and interest rates are historically low, the population continues to grow and the supply of new homes remains limited - such creeping growth may turn out to be pessimistic.

Whilst numbers and forecasts provide a useful guide (when interpreted accurately!) my personal feeling is that it's not possible to understand property markets by simply delving into the numbers. Housing is a place to live, a roof over our heads, where we live has a bigger impact on our quality of life than any other expenditure. It follows that the behaviour of homeowners doesn't readily lend itself to desktop analysis by academics.

My advice is that this winter is a time of opportunity for purchasers who are prepared to hold out for quality and negotiate hard"

The article is on Primelocation.co.uk, along with a pretty picture of Mr Spencer!

[zzg113]

Hawkeye, you have to accept that Phil Slaphead has absolutely no evidence for ANY of his assumptions. The man is a non-stop provider of verbal diarrhea. You have to learn to not pay attention to anything he says.

[hawkeye]

Hawkeye, you have to accept that Phil Slaphead has absolutely no evidence for ANY of his assumptions. The man is a non-stop provider of verbal diarrhea. You have to learn to not pay attention to anything he says.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I get the impression he is off your christnmas card list!. Seriously, I am trying to ignore him, but it is interesting how his articles and many other commentators, are starting to turn round (all be it like a super tanker). When the time comes, it will be interesting to look at an article by him in July 2005, and compare it to July 2004.

[rockdoctor]

Presumably the Spencer definition of 'prime london property' is 'that property which is experiencing price rises'.

[Confiteor]

Phil Spencer's published analysis can be summed up thus: there is NEVER a bad time to buy; some times better than others, perhaps, but there is never a BAD time.

And while I respect his right to believe this, I do not respect his right to PRETEND to believe this.

I firmly believe he knows things would be far from rosey for any FTBer stretching to buy right now, but he is willing to pretend otherwise to support his business interests and reputation.

For this, he deserves a good, hard smack in the puss. And anyone who lives in London and is not planning to deliver said punch when he leaves Garringtons of an evening needs to take a long, hard look at themselves.

Do I need to get on a train?

[zzg113]

I think he lives in Wandsworth somewhere. there was an article in The Times a while back about his house.

[Confiteor]

Steady on ZZG! I was joking!

I'd settle for someone giving him an intellectual smack in the chops.

[zzg113]

Or maybe Krustie could give him one of her pork chops.

[Confiteor]

I'd put the chances of a gentle slowdown ahead of the chances of Krustslap sharing food.

[rockdoctor]

If he lives in Wandsworth he has no excuse at all. For the past 2 years the market here's been flatter than a very flat pancake that's been run over by a steamroller, pushed through a mangle, then sanded until it is nearly transparent.

[Confiteor]

If he lives in Wandsworth he has no excuse at all. For the past 2 years the market here's been flatter than a very flat pancake that's been run over by a steamroller, pushed through a mangle, then sanded until it is nearly transparent.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ah, but you're forgetting that, according the the Master, the FTBer has to move out of the popular centres and to the margins, where the pancake starts to curve upwards. Get with the programme, man!

[zzg113]

according the the Master, the FTBer has to move out of the popular centres and to the margins

Begone with you FTBer to the wastes of Siberia, where you truly belong! Go f*ck yourself Phil.

[rockdoctor]

There's an idea - if the house price boom was truly global, rippling out from London, New York, Paris etc, through the Midlands, and ending up in inaccessible/undesirable areas like the Weslh valleys, where would it go next?

Within Europe I guess geographical/economic remote areas like rural Portugal, or the far northern bits of Scandinavia, then spreading out through the more prosperous ex-Iron Curtain countries into the better 3rd World countries.

Finally we would see booms in places like Iraq, Chechnya, Darfur.

What kind of estate agent ads would we see in the local papers?

"Airy southern aspect"; trans. The main wall was blown out by a tank shell yesterday.

"Lively town centre location with lots of tourists"; trans. most of whom are males wearing camouflage.

[woody]

....however, buyers and sellers continue to look in opposite directions. Sellers are waiting for prices to pick up again at the start of next year and buyers anticipate better deals in the run up to Christmas. There is true in both scenarios.

Er! How can they both be true.