Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Columbo

East Asian Economies Must Prepare For Usd Collapse

Recommended Posts

Bump.

This is the most frightening headline I have ever read. The dollar collapse is a bit like those 'The End Is Nigh' sandwich boards but it looks like the end really is nigh. Look how precious metals jumped at exactly the same time!

Maybe no-one cares on here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmn..

I want fuel..

East..

I want electronics

East

I want cars

East (italian too.. well.. I am a lost cause..)

I want service

East

I want Programing..

East..

What is not done better and cheeper in the east?

apart from shopping and borrowing..?

What I am saying is that the shift of the world economies has already happened..

Edited by apom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the opinion of HPCers do you think a dollar collapse will affect us in Britain badly, and if so what do you think would be a good hedge against this? I think it would be a bad idea to invest in Canada, Mexico, and East Asia as Canada and Mexico are too exposed by the US market and East Asians hold the debt. Germany could be hit because it's a big exporter which might impact the Euro, the Swiss Franc would probably get too high as cash tries to find a safe haven, the oil exporters might get hit by lower US demand as the price would rocket from a US dollar point of view.

Whilst the story might not be accurate so called "moral hazard" is a problem with a debt the size of the US's because it is almost all dollar denominated and a lot is held by foreigners. If they were to default on the foreigners it would cut the debt by a 3rd, if they were to have a bought of dollar hyperinflation the debt could be gotten rid of in a couple of years whereas if they pay it back at the record rate of the Clinton presidency it'd take 70 years and that's very optimistic. The most Clinton payed back was $223 billion in 2000, this year Bush will borrow $423 billion.

Whenever I see these type of headlines I always wonder how I could profit from this in sterling terms, if it was a predicted rise in the dollar it would be clear I had to buy dollars, but I am not so sure how to profit from a downward movement in a lowish risk way, apart from going to the US and buying a lot of consumer goods whilst they were still very cheap in sterling terms before a rising cost of imports increased prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

The USA is the world's number 1 economy. I should imagine if they go tits-up, so will a lot of other countries. To whom will the Chinese sell cheap tat?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness

The most frightening headline I could read would be

70s hairstyles back in fashion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most frightening headline I could read would be

70s hairstyles back in fashion

During the long dark recessions of the 1970's when house prices sank almost as much as during the Great Crash* the length of women's skirts were very long--much as you see today with the "Gypsy-Spanish" influences in women's wear. A far more reliable guide than the prognostications from the economists?

______________

* 1989-96. The "Great Crash" is so named due to the frightening loss of values sustained over a 7 year period where inflated house markets in many regions around the world were affected simultaneously. Several causes have been suggested for the crash with a sharp rise in the cost of fuel leading the list. The Great Crash was one of a long series of house price corrections that have occured throughout history and by no means the most severe. According to some views, the largest crash occured in California following the "Gold Rush" bust of 1849. The sudden drop in the value of gold sent property prices accross the state and eventually accross the entire country in a sharp downward spiral that took decades to recover. The events following the Great Crash have led many to believe that the intensity of regularly occuring house price crashes will increase due to the availability of cheap credit and the shifting of production from traditional house price inflation markets to new world economies of Asia. While it may be difficult to find a consensus among economists as to the timing of the next house price crash, a clear majority accept that the economic cycle as it relates to booms and busts in house prices has not been eliminated.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.