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Sisyphus

Uk Rates To Hit 4.75% By Year End.

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The December 3month sterling Libor future is now yielding 4.75%.

The market is pricing in a 1/4% rate rise by year end.

But the media keep repeating the next move is a cut.

Where will we finish the year?

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The December 3month sterling Libor future is now yielding 4.75%.

The market is pricing in a 1/4% rate rise by year end.

But the media keep repeating the next move is a cut.

Where will we finish the year?

You are better off spending your time in a field guessing the colour of the next sheep to come along.

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The December 3month sterling Libor future is now yielding 4.75%.

The market is pricing in a 1/4% rate rise by year end.

But the media keep repeating the next move is a cut.

Where will we finish the year?

Yep but you leep forgetting to adjust for credit risk

-0.15 for 6 months

100 -Sept 95.3 is 4.70% less credit risk (0.15%) give 4.55%

and the longer out you are the more the credit risk increases

Here are what the Yeild curves imply

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yieldcurve/

years:	30 Mar 060.5	4.421.0	4.391.5	4.402.0	4.402.5	4.403.0	4.393.5	4.384.0	4.384.5	4.375.0	4.365.5	4.356.0	4.346.5	4.327.0	4.307.5	4.288.0	4.268.5	4.249.0	4.229.5	4.2010.0	4.1810.5	4.1611.0	4.1411.5	4.1212.0	4.1012.5	4.0713.0	4.0413.5	4.0214.0	3.9814.5	3.9515.0	3.9215.5	3.8816.0	3.8416.5	3.8117.0	3.7717.5	3.7418.0	3.7018.5	3.6719.0	3.6419.5	3.6120.0	3.5920.5	3.5621.0	3.5421.5	3.5222.0	3.5122.5	3.4923.0	3.4823.5	3.4724.0	3.4624.5	3.4525.0	3.45

And here are the repo rates

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=228&a=1451

1W	4.460002W	4.456673W	4.450001M	4.438332M	4.440003M	4.453336M	4.501679M	4.555001Y	4.59333

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Remember the good old days, in fact only 3 or 4 weeks ago when it was generally accepted by the media, economists and sheeple that rates were set to fall,

It embarrassing how they got it so wrong

YOU CAN'T RESIST THE MARKET

up up and away :D

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Guest consa
HALF (ie 36) of the people voting here thought rates would be 5% or higher by year-end.

Not surprising, since it is a Bearish website. But let's see what happens.

Is it bearish?, I hadn't noticed :unsure: what did you vote for? I promise not to tell Sam :lol:

Edited by consa

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Remember the good old days, in fact only 3 or 4 weeks ago when it was generally accepted by the media, economists and sheeple that rates were set to fall,

It embarrassing how they got it so wrong

YOU CAN'T RESIST THE MARKET

up up and away :D

I could aslo find you posts from Bears on this site, absolutely certain they were going to rise about 6 months ago!

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The yield curves only reflect expectations today as to future rates.

I bet the yield curves for NZ, Oz, Japan, US, and others 18-24 months ago were very different to today.

Sorry, one query for the rate/yield curve bods, have previous unexpected rate increases (and thus in part HPCs) 0eg the late 80s rate increases - been accurately forecast well in advance by the yield curves? I say no. If not, how can they now?

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It seems the BoE will hold out from increasing interest rates for as long as possible. The problem with this is it will require more hikes later than would otherwise be nessasary. Oh well...

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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