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doog

The Long Cycle..

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There is clearly no doubt that there are lots of people on here that REALLY WANT THE HPC NOW and post day in - day out and taunt bears with the 'haha so where is the HPC then'?

It seems obvious to me however that the housing cycle, like most cycles within advanced industrial economies, work on a slightly longer timescale than tmrw, next week or last year. What's needed is a slight step back to see the bigger picture, the externalities that are now hitting UK PLC, the obvious and historically accurate fact that prices go down as well as up, the level of personal debt in the UK (75% of all european personal debt) etc etc. Lets not miss the forest by barking at the trees...

Just wait...

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Guest Winners and Losers

The cheek.....two posts & you're telling the forum what to do!

Nasty, mean TTRTR. :rolleyes: Give the newbie's a break! ;)

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Guest consa

I will repeat it for him:

There is clearly no doubt that there are lots of people on here that REALLY WANT THE HPC NOW and post day in - day out and taunt bears with the 'haha so where is the HPC then'?

It seems obvious to me however that the housing cycle, like most cycles within advanced industrial economies, work on a slightly longer timescale than tmrw, next week or last year. What's needed is a slight step back to see the bigger picture, the externalities that are now hitting UK PLC, the obvious and historically accurate fact that prices go down as well as up, the level of personal debt in the UK (75% of all european personal debt) etc etc. Lets not miss the forest by barking at the trees...

Just wait...

:P

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The housing market doesn't move at the speed of internet forums. I'm new to this forum, and see incredible short-termism in the replies and analysis.

If you're a sensible property investor you don't even care about these short-term cycles. Buy at right price, rent for positive cash flow, and any capital appreciation (which will come in the long term) is a bonus.

Neil

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You'd have bought at the right price back then, generated positive cash flow during those years, remortgaging when possible to buy other properties to generate more positive cash flow... now you have a portfolio of properties generating cash, in which you have no money invested.

Many investors actually don't sell. Why sell a cash-generating asset when you've got any deposit out of it long ago ? (that's if you didn't find a bmv deal in the first place)

Neil

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If you do take the long term view, what yield are you expecting in terms of rental income and capital appreciation?

I'd be interested in seeing how the long term sums add up - as when i was looking into btl a few years back i could never make the sums add up given the perceived risks to me.

There are probably a lot of things you could buy that will be worth more in 25 years - i just sold a whole collection of stuff on ebay that will be worth more in 25 years than now, but the hassle of keeping it outweighs the returns. With BTL does the hassle of tenants really make it worth it - some may be lucky, but a lot probably aren't.

I would rather keep making the 20% returns that i make on my trading and other investments, rather than dabble in property at what i perceive to be on it's way to it's peak. If i'd got in 10 years ago, i'd probably be saying something different - but i didn't so i have to look at the situation as it stands.

The problem with anything that people are led to believe they can make money on is the herd - once the herd arrives, you know you should be looking elsewhere to make money.

With property the herd is worse than with other commodoties as i think the herd is bigger and stupider. They've all been told they're guaranteed to take money - but none are really aware that they may have to let the investment run full term.

The herd also arrived a long time ago - so the time bomb must be ticking.

I'm not bashing those that got into btl, or those that make money out of property - fair play and as long as you pay your taxes (be they fair or unfair) then i don't have a gripe with making money. However, i believe property is overvalued and it is the dense members of the herd that will be lead of the cliff whilst following the other lemmings. (Can you have a heard of lemmings?!)

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The cheek.....two posts & you're telling the forum what to do!

:rolleyes: The capacity to form a reasoned conclusion and an observation about this forum is not dependent on the number of posts one has made. The argument stands or falls on its merits. B)

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:rolleyes: The capacity to form a reasoned conclusion and an observation about this forum is not dependent on the number of posts one has made. The argument stands or falls on its merits. B)

Well said. Just because some has posted a 1000 times does not mean that they are any wiser.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Well said. Just because some has posted a 1000 times does not mean that they are any wiser.

TTRTR proves this point admirably.

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The housing market doesn't move at the speed of internet forums. I'm new to this forum, and see incredible short-termism in the replies and analysis.

If you're a sensible property investor you don't even care about these short-term cycles. Buy at right price, rent for positive cash flow, and any capital appreciation (which will come in the long term) is a bonus.

Neil

and alot of landlords on SP will say that the capital appreciation is the only place to make any decent money, that they dont mind so much about positive yields.

dont care about short term cycles yet buy at the right price, surely the right price isnt at arguably the peak of a massive boom, oh sh*t sorry i forgot about BMV :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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