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Guest boredwaiting

What Is Your Market Sentiment?

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Guest boredwaiting

There is a lot of talk about sentiment turning. I was hoping that we could take a look and see where people see themselves now. I didn't want to put a million choices, just want to see if people here still see themselves as they were when they first started to read this forum.

Myself - I was very bearish about house prices, i wouldn't say I am a bull but I really just don't know what to do anymore. I won't buy a house at these prices, but it doesn't mean i think the market will crash anymore.

BW

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I am a bear and remain a bear. For the record I sold to Rent back in summer 2004 and I’m glad that I did. Am I sweating over this latest suckers rally ? am I b******s.

The only figures for house prices I have even a modicum of faith in are Hometrack’s because they take a much bigger / wider sample than the Haliwide and relate only to England and Wales, therefore they are not skewed by Scotland and NI, as I live in the South East ( Windsor and Maidenhead ) they are bound to be more accurate for people living in these areas, like me.

According to Hometrack prices fell consistently from summer 2004 to December 2006, down about 4.7%. They have, this month, after all the hyping, gone positive Y.O.Y by 0.1% - big deal, that is still a fall in real terms. So for the last 20 odd months that House Prices have been falling, if you had put your cash into a no frills deposit account then your money would have earned 5% P.A, or 9% over the 20 months, whilst house prices have dropped by about 4.6%. Making a net difference of 13.6% very approximately – not a bad return.

So am I sweating no – nor should you.

I have witnessed several Bears on here loose their nerve in the face of VI spin and hype and Troll b******s. Just remember the fundamentals ahve not changed and I dont mean low unemployment ( joke) , low interest rates ( not for much longer !):

Average House Price to Earnings ratio now somewhere between 6 and 8.5 depending on whose stats you believe. Long term trend 3.5. They have always returned to the trend and always will do. House prices are obscenely overvalued ( by approx 40% according to the OECD and 30% by the Economist) – don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Yes I know the bulls will say that the important figure is affordability, and its not a problem because interest rates are low. They are missing the point , the Great British public has put itself into debt up to its eyeballs at these low rates, they are maxed out at 4.5%. A tiny rise in rates will bring the whole thing down just as it was doing with rates at 4.75% – and the world is raising rates ( we cannot stand alone and cut ).

First Time Buyers at record low numbers – are they likely to come flooding back any time soon ? no of course not.

In the last crash it took the Halifax something like two years to register a fall after the event is now acknowledged to have started.

In the last crash , as now , there was at least one suckers rally.

Still, if you have lost your nerve go ahead , stretch yourself to the limit for a pile of bricks and mortar – pay 5 - 10 times the construction cost if it makes you happy – I’m going to carry on renting until Price to Earning hits 3.5 again.

Yes I realise that I am paying rent to a private Landlord but is that any worse than paying rent to a Bank in the form of interest on a mortgage ?

HOLD YOUR NERVE. - DONT BLINK

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Guest boredwaiting

My, you are confused, wish I could understand what you're trying to say...

Are you joking?

I don't really know how to make it clearer. I would really like house prices to crash - but just because I want to doesn't mean I believe that they will. However I do believe that house prices are too high and I won't buy a house - but i don't think that makes me a bear. When I first found this forum i was absolutely convinced house prices were going to crash. But it's been a long wait and now I am not sure that house prices will drop... I understand the logic - but people aren't logical....

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I must admit i'm frustrated, I was expecting serious signs of the slide to be showing by now, which they are not in my area. Stagnant / slow market at best.

BUT..........the way I look at it is......... ok some of us may have been a bit optomistic on the timing of the slide, but have ANY of the fundamentals changed for the better ??

The answer is NO !! If anything it just getting worse !!

Which will hopefully make the correction even more marked.

Part of the problem with reading this forum every day, is it's "the watched kettle" syndrome.

Show some faith, stick to your beliefs and get on with something else & SAVE like mad !!!

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Guest Bart of Darkness

It's often been said that when the last bear turns bull, the downturn wll have begun. Now this is not something that I can claim to fully go along with, but if this is the generally accepted view of markets, then current bear "defections" and the high number of "I was a bear but..." votes here must surely be encouraging.

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Guest boredwaiting

It's often been said that when the last bear turns bull, the downturn wll have begun. Now this is not something that I can claim to fully go along with, but if this is the generally accepted view of markets, then current bear "defections" and the high number of "I was a bear but..." votes here must surely be encouraging.

You have no idea how much I hope that this is the case..... :)

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Im a bear and although it would be nice to see more positive news I am in no hurry. I need to save more before I could afford a place even at affordable prices. I guess in the year I have been reading here I have become more sure that a correction will occur. I have also realised that if things do not improve then I will find better opportunities elsewhere.

I am happy paying my resident landlord, it is more like a house share and with no council tax or bills to pay I am pretty content. When there is little pressure to buy it is easy to be patient.

Everyone at work thinks I am as mad as a spongy brained cow, they just keep asking why I need to save so much, my reason is that it wont be so cheap to borrow money soon so i would rather have my own.

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I'm as much a bear now as I was last year.

I've never had any personal beliefs on when house prices will come down or even what will cause it. I just know a mid terrace house that was worth £40k in 2001 isn't worth £160 now.

I have no expectations about the housing market excpet that prices are too high and will one day come down. Giving it a time frame is a waste of time as I can't predict the future of say how people will react.

I just sit back and get on as best I can with what I have.

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According to Hometrack prices fell consistently from summer 2004 to December 2006, down about 4.7%. They have, this month, after all the hyping, gone positive Y.O.Y by 0.1% - big deal, that is still a fall in real terms. So for the last 20 odd months that House Prices have been falling, if you had put your cash into a no frills deposit account then your money would have earned 5% P.A, or 9% over the 20 months, whilst house prices have dropped by about 4.6%. Making a net difference of 13.6% very approximately – not a bad return.

But are you really better off? Say it's a £250K property (only a guess, but one could adjust the figures)

13.6% = £34K

Moving costs to move out then move back in - estimate £12K?

Rent maybe £1000 a month? = £21K

They're only rough guesses, but that leaves you only a tiny bit better off than if you'd stayed. And no matter what the real figures are I wonder if the genuine profit so far is worth the aggravation. I'm sure some STRs are making the huge profits they boast of here. But I tend to think that for the strategy to really work it needs more dramatic falls than this.

Not knocking you personally - I respect anyone who had the balls to take this gamble. But I sometimes wonder if there is a little bit of false bravado in the accounts of those who STRed a few years ago. And I do think that anyone considering it now needs to be honest about how fast prices need to fall to justify the decision.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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