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Without_a_Paddle

House Price Crash Coming Soon... (not)

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I would make this compulsory for all home owners. They must do their civic duty and MEW up to the full price of their properties and spend it NOW. Your country NEEDS YOU.

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Actually, I think that deflation is a real threat to the economy, and a HPC trigger.

who knows? i don't. i just think there's more going on out there that your average uk punter realises.

yup that's a funny one bart

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Guest muttley

I'm sure deflation would be great for house prices (from an FTB's or bear's point of view :) ) Deflation should be good if you are debt free, holding cash, and in a job. But do you think it is likely in the West, if the banks nail rates to the floor again ?

I just think we are different to the Japanese. They have always saved loads, and when economic trouble came, the saving went into overdrive, even with rates at zero. (Real rates were still positve. Everthing but cash was going down). It's like they are insecure. Getting nuked and losing a world war may be a factor in their mentality. But I think deflation in the west, with banks determined to stop it, seems unlikely. Or at least less likely than Japan.

I'm not making any calls here, just considering the possibilities.

Deflation occurs when people stop spending.It might be because they are saving, or it might be because they haven't got it to spend.

If it happened to the second biggest economy in the world, then it could happen anywhere.The "Two World Wars and One World Cup" Defence is irrelevant.

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It's £2.70 a pint wher I live mate.

I used to go out and get drunk on a fiver.

No longer!

Try £2.85 where I am and it's probably gonna go another 10p within a month or so!!

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WaP

You used an example of help there that quite frankly gets on my t@ts!

Help from parents.

Why the **** should my mum and dad, who are pensioners, give me money from their PITTANCE of a pension to inflate this bubble. For a start I would not have the heart or CHEEK to even ask them. ITS IS NOT THEIR PROBLEM!

So what happens when I buy my £30k Council house for £300K in 25 years time? This so called GOOD INVESTMENT will have to be sold off to pay for my childrens homes? Can't say that's a good idea is it - I thought it was supposed to top up my pension which the Government also STOLE FROM ME!

The goal posts seemed to have moved soo much on house buying with this FACIST government.

fas·cism ( P ) Pronunciation Key (fshzm)

n.

often Fascism

A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, stringent socioeconomic controls, suppression of the opposition through terror and censorship, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.

A political philosophy or movement based on or advocating such a system of government.

Oppressive, dictatorial control.

There has be a system before Nu-Labour that has worked since 1952. Only greed causes a boom and its greed that causes the bust. That tw@t Brown states "No More BOOM and BUST". He allows the BOOM but no bust??? That is FACIST - they supply the tools, we do the work, they take the money!

Its like Sky Sports this government. Sky Sports dont believe there was football before 1992, this Goverment think that history didnt happen before 1997. Vote these assholes out a.s.a.p. they are NO GOOD for the future of this country. Not so sure Conservative are the answer but I think it will be an UNFORTUNATE party that takes over this shyte that GB has got us in!

HISTORY

Your Born

You meet someone

Your get married (or co-habit)

You Buy a House

You have Children

You move up the property ladder when you have built up equity

You retire

You enjoy your pension and grandchildren

You die and leave your house to your siblings.

Nu-LABOUR

Your Born and given an ID card - Parents pay for it

You meet someone (to try and buy a house with coz its unaffordable)

Your get married (or co-habit)

You Buy a House (3% shared ownership - Renting is banned from 2010 you pay direct to the government)

You have Children (You hire them for £1,000 a week. To see what you are missing)

You move up the property ladder when you have built up equity (Your 3% equity has only made you 79p, you decide Im stuck here!)

You retire (Your 96 and looking forward to resting but have to find a part-time job to buy some baked beans)

You enjoy miss your pension, and are lonely

You die and leave your house to the government

WHY CAN PEOPLE NOT SEE THIS?????

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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one fascinating point about bubbles is that as they stretch to the bursting point, you get halfwit 'pundits' crawling out of every nook and cranny trying to justify why 'its different this time' and 'its not a bubble' and then later 'but it wont burst'.

Mangling old stats is actually the laziest expression of this highly amusing trend - it requires no imagination or brains even, and so is used by the most intellectually challenged Vested Interest.

Which means old paddleboy is probably an estate agent!

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one fascinating point about bubbles is that as they stretch to the bursting point, you get halfwit 'pundits' crawling out of every nook and cranny trying to justify why 'its different this time' and 'its not a bubble' and then later 'but it wont burst'.

Mangling old stats is actually the laziest expression of this highly amusing trend - it requires no imagination or brains even, and so is used by the most intellectually challenged Vested Interest.

Which means old paddleboy is probably an estate agent!

:lol:

Actually CIUW, I'm an electronics design engineer.

I design high spec comms equipment (radios to you)

Care to test me?

(to see if I'm really an EA?)

... if people keep building up their debt at a rate of 10% a year

I've heard this one a lot. can someone break this down into real figures?

I assume the UK average debt to disposable income ratio is climbing at 10% a year.

i.e. it is 15% first year and 16.5% the next year. (probably around 20% today).

This is the UK average figure. It is bound to be slowly going up as the UK gains more and more homeowners as council RTB properties get sold. I'd imagine BTL affects it too.

If I am right on this stat, it has only been climbing at 10% pa for the last couple of years. before that, more like 5% pa.

At the last boom in 1988-89 it grew at 20% pa.

Is 20% of income going on debt repayments at crisis point yet?

(I'm not convinced as to how useful the UK average figure is)

And now again, a soft landing or price not "lowered" by inflation would be the first time. But, to be honest with the debt here, in the US, in France (relatively low though)…. for me the question is not will there be a major adjustment but when and true for me the sooner the better and this is why I am upset.

I'm not suggesting that prices won't correct over time. Just that there probably won't be a crash in nominal terms like last time (UK average).

Read my reply to Dr Bubb about long term fixed interest rates. It may be better to buy today with a long term fixed loan compared to waiting for an inflation adjusted dip in prices.

Why? because you will be paying higher rates against a loan of the same amount (prices stagnate in terms of £££) when you do eventually buy. Today's fixed rate buyer will be better off and will end the mortgage sooner (and be in their own home sooner)

This is what usually happens during a price correction. the 1990s nominal price crash was unique in the UK.

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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Guest The_Oldie

.............I'm an electronics design engineer.

I design high spec comms equipment (radios to you)

Care to test me?

(to see if I'm really an EA?)

I'm surprised you manage to design any radios given the amount of time you spend on this forum :rolleyes:

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I'm surprised you manage to design any radios given the amount of time you spend on this forum :rolleyes:

I'm off work this week. Also I've got broadband now and I leave it running, often with this site still up in the background.

I use the same PC for other work and writing control code for stuff at home.

But you are right. I have been posting a lot lately. It's the novelty factor of broadband. (well that's my excuse)

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Guest Winners and Losers

It's the novelty factor of broadband. (well that's my excuse)

And mine.

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Has everyone noticed how these calculations in favour of increasing House prices never include children.

Man earns 25K

Women earns 17k

Total 42k

Mortgage 160k

Repayments £1000

Earnings £3000

There you go no problem

Having a family is quite often very important to a couple in a long term relationship (I know there is exceptions).

I love the common misconceptions from the bulls arguments like "no fear tax credits will make up for a womens loss of earnings". Has anyone seen what the tax credits currently are? Anyone earning 25k a year would be lucky to get more than about 50 quid a month with one child.

Or how about she can just go back to work and give the kids to a child minder or Grandparents. Many women want to stay at home with children to watch them grow up, at least till they start school. If not they may as well have them fostered and go round and visit them a few times a week.

Poncing money off your parents and expecting them to give me free child care is ludicrous. They both work and need to with the current state of affairs in this country.

Continued HPI = A break down in fundamentals of family life.

This is why I believe high house prices are doomed.

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The simple fact is that a terraced house bought in 1999 for £40k is now £160k and there is no legitimate economic argument for this.

House prices could have been undervalued ?

Like any share now days, some are undervalued and people buy them.

Why do you think there has to be a legitimate answer for anything to do with the economy. Things dont work that was and will always buck trends which you dont think is possible.

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Don't forget about maternity pay and child tax credits. Also people (mums?) can change career and work from home these days via the internet.

You're having a laugh, aren't you?

:o

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You're having a laugh, aren't you?

:o

No, not really.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3645475.stm

A revolution in technology has at last made the work-from-home dream a reality for millions of British workers.

Teleworking, once a quirky concept, has become a realistic choice for many wanting to save time, spend more of it with their families and have more control over their work-life balance.

One year on from the introduction of new UK laws on flexible working - and during Work From Home Week in the UK - new evidence has emerged that more and more of us will soon be working away from the office.

More than 2.1 million people work from home and around 8 million spend at least some of their working week in the house instead of at the office, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

That is double the number since 1997 when ONS research in this area began.

At last, office capability at home is available at a reasonable price, says Alan Denbigh, executive director at the Teleworking Association.

"With broadband, people can use the internet, check e-mails and transmit documents in the same way as they would in the office, so why be in the office.

"We've seen this strong growth in the last 6 years during a time when the conditions weren't right and legal obstacles were in the way.

"Now it is much better from a legal point of view, so I think we'll see a lot more people doing this in the future."

The trick is to avoid the scams. (Usually SPAM emails about how to earn £££ at home)

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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No, not really.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3645475.stm

The trick is to avoid the scams. (Usually SPAM emails about how to earn £££ at home)

You do know, though, don't you, that childcare is a full-time job? That's why people who go to work have to pay for childcare. :rolleyes:

The idea that you can work from home (full time or part time) and care for your child/ren at the same time is a fantasy. In order to do the working from home you'd have to put your child into nursery so you could do it.

That's before we get into how realistic it is to suggest that large numbers of mothers, many in their 30s, having had a specific career or professional training, should "change career and work from home" just like that ('cause it's that easy, folks! :blink: ) What about all those women who work in, oh, I don't know, office jobs, or admin, or secretarial work, or as teachers, or as doctors, or lawyers, etc. etc. - why don't they all give up work, start their own business selling double glazing over the internet with the baby on their knee? After all, it's not like it's not going to need feeding, or changing, or playing with, or washing, or be screaming for 4 hours straight, or anything like that while you "work from home" pissing your career and your skills away doing piecework telecommuting just so you can afford to keep up the payments on your overpriced mortgage.

Would *you* do it, Paddle? Would you give up your career to change job, "work from home" and do a full day's childcare at the same time? Can it be done? I had a friend who was writing a PhD who had a baby thinking it would be possible to do a bit of writing and research while the baby was asleep, do a bit of work every day when she got a few spare moments. She didn't even turn her computer on for a whole year after the baby was born - she never had those few spare moments. The idea that she would have time to "work from home" was laughable.

edited for typos

Edited by Zaranna

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paddles is 'an electrnics engineer'.

jeez. no wonder our manufacturing industry went tits up.

u didn't use to work for Marconi did u?

oh - hang on, what am I doing.. believing ANY of the crap u regularly spout. Estate Agent Troll.

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I'm off work this week. Also I've got broadband now and I leave it running, often with this site still up in the background.

I use the same PC for other work and writing control code for stuff at home.

But you are right. I have been posting a lot lately. It's the novelty factor of broadband. (well that's my excuse)

What modifications would you have to perform to the output of a Wein bridge sine oscillator oscillating around 0v to make it suitable to pulse width modulate the output of a TL494CN PWM IC?

BTW: I'm not an electrical engineer so the question is quite likely to be garbled.

Billy Shears

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I would argue that the higher utility bills of today are offset by the lower cost of imported goods today.

Cars, washing machines, televisions, computers, kitchenware etc etc have hardly gone up in price.

(Same with beer :) )

thats fine if your buying Cars, washing machines, televisions, computers, kitchenware. i suspect we're not.

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What modifications would you have to perform to the output of a Wein bridge sine oscillator oscillating around 0v to make it suitable to pulse width modulate the output of a TL494CN PWM IC?

BTW: I'm not an electrical engineer so the question is quite likely to be garbled.

Billy Shears

Jeez. a Wein Bridge oscillator. I made one of those when I was a kid. Two in fact (using op amps and bulbs) to make a highly linear two tone audio generator to test SSB radios. Still got it today.

The output intercept point of the two tone generator was very good with 3rd order products better than -80dBc at full output. Tested on a HP (Agilent) Spectrum analyser. Later tested on a PC sound card.

Wein bridge oscillators are 'old' style tech BTW. They tend to give unstable outputs when first powered up but they give a good clean sine wave output.

Do I have to look up the datasheet on the TL494CN?

If you are looking for a quick answer I would guess you would have to square up the waveform and level shift it to suit the interface spec of the PWM IC.

Also you won't get much modulation info unless you are able to alter the duty cycle of the (now square) waveform. i.e. alter its pulse width.

Nowadays you wouldn't start with a Wein bridge oscillator. You could do the whole thing digitally. In its simplest form use a simple RISC MCU and write some simple assembler code (I can do this too) to accept the modulation info (modn data fed in from a text file via a UART from a PC based terminal program?) and use a 16bit timer in the MCU to output a nice square waveform that varies in pulse width. feed it to the PWM chip.

Like I said, i haven't bothered to look up the datasheet on a TL494CN so I don't even know if you made this part number up...

If you are not happy with this answer then better to pm me rather than bore the pants off other HPCers with more electronics stuff...

Edit:

I couldn't resist looking up the TL494. It's a poxy PSU chip! I assumed you were talking about something more interesting like a PWM radio transmitter! (my solution offered above would have generated the baseband modulation signal)

The TL494 appears to have its own internal oscillator anyway. Some regulators accept external reference inputs (sometimes done to synch up banks of regulators to minimise noise etc) No way am I going to wade through the datasheet to see if it can be clocked externally.

The TL494 looks quite old... I've recently designed step down regulators using devices like the Nat Semi LM2676 in TO-263 package. These are highly efficient, require only a few external components and give low noise and ripple and they are reliable.

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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Jeez. a Wein Bridge oscillator. I made one of those when I was a kid. Two in fact (using op amps and bulbs) to make a highly linear two tone audio generator to test SSB radios. Still got it today.

The output intercept point of the two tone generator was very good with 3rd order products better than -80dBc at full output. Tested on a HP (Agilent) Spectrum analyser. Later tested on a PC sound card.

Wein bridge oscillators are 'old' style tech BTW. They tend to give unstable outputs when first powered up but they give a good clean sine wave output.

Do I have to look up the datasheet on the TL494CN?

If you are looking for a quick answer I would guess you would have to square up the waveform and level shift it to suit the interface spec of the PWM IC.

Also you won't get much modulation info unless you are able to alter the duty cycle of the (now square) waveform. i.e. alter its pulse width.

Nowadays you wouldn't start with a Wein bridge oscillator. You could do the whole thing digitally. In its simplest form use a simple RISC MCU and write some simple assembler code (I can do this too) to accept the modulation info (modn data fed in from a text file via a UART from a PC based terminal program?) and use a 16bit timer in the MCU to output a nice square waveform that varies in pulse width. feed it to the PWM chip.

Like I said, i haven't bothered to look up the datasheet on a TL494CN so I don't even know if you made this part number up...

If you are not happy with this answer then better to pm me rather than bore the pants off other HPCers with more electronics stuff...

I knew he was an estate agent....

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WAP,

Tax credits do not amount to much for individuals on an average salary. With two children we only received £45 p.m as we earn too much, apparently, yet our nursery costs are astronomical. I actually believe childcare costs have risen above inflation due to tax credits. I have an associate who only pays 30% of their nursery costs as she is is a single parent, but we can not afford to send our children to the same nursery as it is too expensive :o . As for Mat. Pay, when averaged it amounted to 3 months full pay. We survived by using our savings, which is exactly what they were for.

Hi,

Outside of any affordability considerations, I just will NOT pay 250K what someone paid 150K just five years ago. This is plain simple, I just can't…. why would I have to strain myself while my mate has a good life for similar job and pay? No way.

My sentiments exactly. Logically, it just does not sit comfortably with me and when I try to understand it my stomach knots! I am at the stage where I just can't see the benefits of borrowing money to purchase a home, even if prices fall. I am unsure if this is a good thing or not.

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My sentiments exactly. Logically, it just does not sit comfortably with me and when I try to understand it my stomach knots! I am at the stage where I just can't see the benefits of borrowing money to purchase a home, even if prices fall. I am unsure if this is a good thing or not.

While I perfectly understand the profit and speculation motive, and understand why people would in the current environment take advantage of the situation, what I don' t understand is how people who own these homes think they DESERVE these kind of profits. They got lucky, and good luck to them but I can't understand smugness. Apart from sheer boredom, that is is the reason it would actually turn my stomach to buy in the current situation. I don't want to feed smug gitism while accepting a risk that they would never have taken on.

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You do know, though, don't you, that childcare is a full-time job? That's why people who go to work have to pay for childcare. :rolleyes:

The idea that you can work from home (full time or part time) and care for your child/ren at the same time is a fantasy. In order to do the working from home you'd have to put your child into nursery so you could do it.

That's before we get into how realistic it is to suggest that large numbers of mothers, many in their 30s, having had a specific career or professional training, should "change career and work from home" just like that ('cause it's that easy, folks! :blink: ) What about all those women who work in, oh, I don't know, office jobs, or admin, or secretarial work, or as teachers, or as doctors, or lawyers, etc. etc. - why don't they all give up work, start their own business selling double glazing over the internet with the baby on their knee? After all, it's not like it's not going to need feeding, or changing, or playing with, or washing, or be screaming for 4 hours straight, or anything like that while you "work from home" pissing your career and your skills away doing piecework telecommuting just so you can afford to keep up the payments on your overpriced mortgage.

Would *you* do it, Paddle? Would you give up your career to change job, "work from home" and do a full day's childcare at the same time? Can it be done? I had a friend who was writing a PhD who had a baby thinking it would be possible to do a bit of writing and research while the baby was asleep, do a bit of work every day when she got a few spare moments. She didn't even turn her computer on for a whole year after the baby was born - she never had those few spare moments. The idea that she would have time to "work from home" was laughable.

edited for typos

Then turn this situation into your advantage. open your own daycare nursery and charge people £600+ per month to dump their kids.

5 kids =£3k/month.

You could afford to pay someone else to look after the kids whilst you go back to work after 6 months.

You could rent or buy another property for this and take on staff.

10 kids =£6k a month.

etc. (or is running a daycare nursery rocket science, and therefore only possible for the elite?)

Or, if you are so career minded, you keep your job and pay someone else £600pm to care for your child when you are ready to go back to work. £600pm is not that big a chunk out of your combined salary (if you have a good career and your partner is also in employment)

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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What a load of ******

Yes of course, lets all start up a nursery and make lots of money, don't forget the expenses, all the modifications etc to comply with regulations, all the staff to hire... If it is such a good idea WAP why dont you quit the engineering and do exactly that...

It is obvious that you do not have much experience with children, and if you now say that you have got children I would feel very sad for the poor kids, have you ever heard of nurturing by the parents????

And as for your example, not sure that wages were quite that low back in 1989 compared to now, there has not been many wage rises since then...

Edited by Waitingstill

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  • 332 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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