Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
crash 2005

House Prices Rising, Lending Losing Momentum.

Recommended Posts

With reports of mortgage lending losing momentum and house prices increasing (probably just london and N.ireland skewing the average), isn't this a sign that the suckers rally is almost over?

I think there will be a lot of disapointed spring time sellers, that will be faced with cutting asking prices after easter, once they realise there has been no spring bounce.

This will probably coinside with a rate rise, and NHS strike action, and maybe another gas rise.

does that sound about right?

forgot to mention the proposed council workers 2 day strike action over pensions (unison) to coinside with local elections

ISN'T THIS COUNTRY IN GREAT SHAPE GORDON CLOWN (AND YOU AIN'T GONER MAKE TO No.10)

Edited by crash 2005

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will be the third time running that the "spring bounce" has failed to materialise here for some sellers.

Almost all of the same properties from 3 years ago will still be on the market at fanciful prices and those will still be on the market at the same fanciful prices after Spring. The only thing which might change that later is the cost of having the HIPS pack done.

In the meantime, property new to the market either goes on at a realistic price and sells (a tiny fraction of the property on the market) or more commonly just joins the pages and pages of property for sale on Rightmove to sit there for two years or more.

I've noticed a tendency to "try the p*** take, then be realistic" - e.g. new house comes on the market at 379k, a month later (I guess this is what happens) the agent rings the vendor who agrees it backfired because there were no viewings, and it's then cut in one go to 325k.

Then it either goes 315k, then 295k, then 275k, then 250k.... or it sits on the market for 3+ years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Who knows, but I've been hearing this for the last few years and I've just financially screwed myself by waiting. I can't wait and see much longer.

well go buy an overpriced house then if you think thats a better solution.

Edited by right_freds_dead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Fiddlesticks

With reports of mortgage lending losing momentum and house prices increasing (probably just london and N.ireland skewing the average), isn't this a sign that the suckers rally is almost over?

I think there will be a lot of disapointed spring time sellers, that will be faced with cutting asking prices after easter, once they realise there has been no spring bounce.

This will probably coinside with a rate rise, and NHS strike action, and maybe another gas rise.

does that sound about right?

forgot to mention the proposed council workers 2 day strike action over pensions (unison) to coinside with local elections

ISN'T THIS COUNTRY IN GREAT SHAPE GORDON CLOWN (AND YOU AIN'T GONER MAKE TO No.10)

Hi Crash2005,

You're right about London, where I am things have been taking off very uncomfortably for the last few weeks, and it seems to be the same across London.

My gut feeling now is that I can't see it going down anytime soon, and the mortgage approvals figures seem to point that way too. Have you seen KingofNowhere's graph on mortgage approvals from another thread?

HouseHPIapprovals.GIF

This suggests we've got a good few months of price rises to come yet. I think it's going to be Crash2007 at best.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What you are seeing is the prelude to the next rate cut.

Yes, ECB, Fed, Japan all rising but we in the UK being entirely unaffected by global inflationary factors will keep cutting. :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What you are seeing is the prelude to the next rate cut.

What facts do you base that on? You are just trolling now. Have you no tenants to look after?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Fiddlesticks

Here is the average number of approvals per month (for house purchase) in a year and the HPI for that year

If anyone think a fall back to 115K will reduce annual HPI (Bearing in mind the numbers dropping out are from when approvals were 100K) then they should think again IMHO. I agree the MoM figures might slow down from the average 0.8% per month but the YoY will keep picking up IMHO

HPI	Av Appro1987		15.5%	1201988		34.0%	1321989	 5.1%	 971990	 0.2%	 891991	-2.4%	 881992	-8.3%	 741993	 2.0%	 831994	-0.8%	 841995	-1.3%	 761996	  7.4%	 911997	  5.4%	 971998	  5.2%	 871999	11.3%	 952000	  5.5%	 942001	11.9%	1052002	25.7%	1192003	16.1%	1142004	15.0%	1052005	  5.0%	1002006	1Q06	119

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

What you are seeing is the prelude to the next rate cut.

Of course, We're going into recession, so of course there will be rate cuts.

Open your eyes people.

Look at what's just happened during 2005.

The Bank Of England have (experimentally) determined the level of interest rates that would send the house market into a nosedive: 4.75%. An emergency rate cut in August was needed to 'bend' the HPI graph back upwards again as it got perilously close to zero.

This rally means they won't have to cut. YET.

It is very interesting to see Mr Rents implicitly predicting a downturn in the housing market and economy by predicting a rate cut. Even in spite of the mounting evidence of SOMETHING of a spring bounce at least.

Welcome to the Bear camp, Mr Rents. Please select an avatar. I don't think BooBoo bear is taken yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.