Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) - British home loan approvals fell on the month in February for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years while mortgage lending rose less than expected, official data showed on Wednesday. The Bank of England said mortgage lending rose by 8.055 billion pounds last month compared with forecasts for a rise of 8.9 billion. That was below a downwardly-revised 8.877 billion pounds in January. The BoE also said that seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made and widely seen as a guide to house prices six months out -- fell for the first time since October 2004, to 115,000. That was down from January's revised 121,000 although they are still up 34 percent on a year ago. Separately, the BoE said consumer credit rose by 1.416 billion pounds, the biggest rise since June 2005 and more than the 1.2 billion economists had expected. The data suggested that the recovery in the housing market may be moderating while consumer spending is holding up and will likely reinforce expectations that rates will remain steady at 4.5 percent for several months to come. Note "seen as a guide to house prices six months out." I've been predicting a downturn kicking-in at year-end / 2007 for a long time. Ignore me at your peril Though feel free to carry on panicking if you like http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/mor...1&in_page_id=58 Rising prices stall homebuyers Simon Lambert, This is Money 29 March 2006 THE first drop for almost 18 months in the number of mortgages being approved has added weight to claims the recent property market revival could be set to stumble. As for this gem Borrowers expecting rate cut 29/03/2006 The number of borrowers choosing a discounted variable-rate mortgage has increased, indicating that consumers are anticipating an interest rate cut in the near future, according to research by independent mortgage broker Hamptons Mortgages. The figures show that demand for a two-year variable-rate mortgage rose by 9.7% in a month, from 19.27% in February 2006 to 29% in March. In contrast, the number of home buyers choosing a two-year fixed-rate deal fell by 16% over the same period. According to Hamptons, the number of homeowners remortgaging their property has also increased, rising by 15% since December 2005 to account for 31.8% of new loans it brokered in March. Edited March 29, 2006 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) - British home loan approvals fell on the month in February for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years while mortgage lending rose less than expected, official data showed on Wednesday. The Bank of England said mortgage lending rose by 8.055 billion pounds last month compared with forecasts for a rise of 8.9 billion. That was below a downwardly-revised 8.877 billion pounds in January. The BoE also said that seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made and widely seen as a guide to house prices six months out -- fell for the first time since October 2004, to 115,000. That was down from January's revised 121,000 although they are still up 34 percent on a year ago. Separately, the BoE said consumer credit rose by 1.416 billion pounds, the biggest rise since June 2005 and more than the 1.2 billion economists had expected. The data suggested that the recovery in the housing market may be moderating while consumer spending is holding up and will likely reinforce expectations that rates will remain steady at 4.5 percent for several months to come. Note "seen as a guide to house prices six months out." I've been predicting a downturn kicking-in at year-end / 2007 for a long time. Ignore me at your peril http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/mor...1&in_page_id=58 Rising prices stall homebuyers Simon Lambert, This is Money 29 March 2006 THE first drop for almost 18 months in the number of mortgages being approved has added weight to claims the recent property market revival could be set to stumble. Where can I send a straw for you to grasp at? 115,000 approvals in February - down from 121,000 in January - up 34% from a year ago. A year ago everyone was marvelling that mortgage approvals were down 30%. Guess what - they're back up again! Multiply 115000 by 12 and you get 1,380,000 house sales a year. That is more than has sold in any of the last 5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted March 29, 2006 Author Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) First downward move for 18m - it's significant methinks. Oh, well, let's meet up online in a years time and see who's proved right. Nos Da Gruff Edited March 29, 2006 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) The problem is that the downturn is on seasonally adjusted figures (SA correction +17%, but slightly uncertain given the behaviour a year ago), and even the current level of 115k SA, acording to the HPI to approvals correlation, implies a surprisingly large HPI this year. It looks as though the approvals need to fall even more to be consistent with single digit HPI. Edited March 29, 2006 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) I don't know why people on this site get so bothered by the day-to-day data. The whole story is unfolding quite nicely... Edited March 29, 2006 by BandWagon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The problem is that the downturn is on seasonally adjusted figures (SA correction +17%, but slightly uncertain given the behaviour a year ago), and even the current level of 115k SA, acording to the HPI to approvals correlation, implies a surprisingly large HPI this year. It looks as though the approvals need to fall even more to be consistent with single digit HPI. When you say 'fall even more' - you mean fall even more than the 34% MORE than they were a year ago. For heaven's sake get a grip. The bloody market is back to normal. Normal levels of transactions and, excuse me for farting in church, some bloody HPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 A monthly approval rate of 115k SA is really rather high and implies a large positive HPI. Discussion on this thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=26933 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 30, 2006 Share Posted March 30, 2006 (edited) The bloody market is back to normal. The market is absolutely not back to normal. You state earlier what the annual sales numbers wouldbe if you multiply 115k by 12. Durr! Also, that London has had a good few months - so what. It'll stop dead after the spring. The rest of the country is doing badly now. New builds are dead. Auctions are dead. Mortgage brokers are all wondering why they didn't resign and join The Apprentice. Even Nationsh1te and Scamifax say the market is dying. Do wake up Marina and smell the golden roast. Edited March 30, 2006 by Financial Planner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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