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Halifax's Martin Ellis Says House Prices Are

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“Martin Ellis, chief economist at HBOS … predicts house prices are unlikely to rise in *real* terms for the next 10-20 years.” – Well, that’s really putting one’s neck on the line!

Stop the press and grab you towel! :lol::lol::lol:

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If you or me said it it means nothing but coming from someone whos business it is to sell products which enable the purchase of property, it's significant.

Put it into context.

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As some HPC bears turn bull , the VI (Nationwide last week) bulls turn bear!

http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle...VersionID=81153

:P

I personally don't expect prices to rise in real terms. If they don't drop in nominal terms then it's not a problem for myself (and most people). If you see prices stagnant in nominal terms, then why not let inflation take care of the debt?

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If you or me said it it means nothing but coming from someone whos business it is to sell products which enable the purchase of property, it's significant.

Put it into context.

Here we go again. First Nationwide, now the Halifax.

When they report HPI - they're talking rubbish - VI ******** - shouldn't be allowed to manipulate the market.

When they report House Prices Static - they're the experts, they're the kiddies, everyone take notice of what the experts are saying!

It really is pathetic.

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When they report HPI - they're talking rubbish - VI ******** - shouldn't be allowed to manipulate the market.

When they report House Prices Static - they're the experts, they're the kiddies, everyone take notice of what the experts are saying!

I hate to say this, but that comment is simplistic, especially coming from someone who has written a lot of very good posts in the past.

You know very well how much VI influence is put in to the market to ruthlessly play on people's perceptions of owning property, and to encourage the culture in which people are taking a cavalier attitude towards debt.

Criticisms of the vested interests in the market are ENTIRELY VALID and I would defend the right for them to appear.

The fact that even a VI is talking things down is definitely significant, and I take it for what it is.

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The thing about this kind of story is that other VIs pick up on the bullish comments and ignore bearish comments. Hence - if they'd suggested big rises over the next 10 years = BBC Headline. No increase in real terms for 20 years = Citywire.

Edited by gruffydd

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I hate to say this, but that comment is simplistic, especially coming from someone who has written a lot of very good posts in the past.

You know very well how much VI influence is put in to the market to ruthlessly play on people's perceptions of owning property, and to encourage the culture in which people are taking a cavalier attitude towards debt.

Criticisms of the vested interests in the market are ENTIRELY VALID and I would defend the right for them to appear.

The fact that even a VI is talking things down is definitely significant, and I take it for what it is.

But if they are transparently wrong to report a rising market - why are they so clearly right when reporting a static or falling market. Has the way they collect and interpret their figures changed? Or is it just that when you don't like a message you say it's drivel and when you do like a message you say it isn't?

That's how it looks to me. What worries me is that for the last 2 years I have been saying the VIs have been talking drivel. When I could see the evidence of a falling market - they reported a rising market. Now I see a rising market - they are reporting the opposite.

Of course criticisms of VIs are ENTIRELY VALID, but only if they are consistent.

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If you or me said it it means nothing but coming from someone whos business it is to sell products which enable the purchase of property, it's significant.

Put it into context.

So I guess you will argue that these things as true as well ... :lol:

Martin Ellis, Chief Economist, HBOS.

"Base rates are likely to fall further in 2006. Further evidence of below trend economic activity, and confirmation that the rise in oil prices is not raising inflationary prospects in the medium term, are likely to trigger at least one 25 basis points reduction."

"The housing market is expected to be flat in 2006 with modest nominal house price growth and no change in real terms.

"UK house prices are forecast to rise by 3%, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation. House prices have risen by less than the long-term average (8% per annum) in 2005 for the first time since 2000."

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I'd say it is fairly bearish, compare

'House prices will probably go up in the next decade or two'

to

'House prices set to rise 20% in next 12 months, buy now

bfore you miss the boat'

which is what we were hearing not so long ago.

Maybe they are trying to lengthen expectations, after all, a fifty year mortgage

might not seem such abhorrent slavery if people imagine they will

be up on the deal after only the first couple of decades.

ABB

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Guest Winners and Losers

What is that a reference to?

There was a thread a while back 'Who is your HPC Hero' - i.e. who makes good posts/has good knowledge. I am sure you were mentioned. I voted Realist Bear. ;)

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Look it is clear what has happened. Marina has gone on holiday and his pet figured out how to use the pc.

untitled.JPG

Yes you are confused again. What really happened?

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That's how it looks to me. What worries me is that for the last 2 years I have been saying the VIs have been talking drivel. When I could see the evidence of a falling market - they reported a rising market. Now I see a rising market - they are reporting the opposite.

I think that the VIs are to an extent playing down this "mini-boom" is because they are trying to avoid a rise in Interest Rates.

They know very well that the 3.5%->4.75% rise and Mervyn King's comments in 2004 nearly led to a full-scale crash and I just think it's part of their strategy. The VIs know very well that their market is rotten to the core and they're secretly enjoying the last of the winner's curse money coming in.

You cannot ignore the series of property professionals and international investors who have pulled their money firmly out of Real Estate.

I trust my instincts. You can stay bullish if you like, Marina. Some of us have no choice other than to be bearish because that's the only thing we have left.

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If you look at the mortgage approvals (other thread) it’s clearly taking off again, so he needs to head off an interest rate rise without spooking the buyers - obviously he talks about “real prices”, “possible rises, but no more than inflation”, “flat for years”, “stagnation is real terms”, etc.

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I think that the VIs are to an extent playing down this "mini-boom" is because they are trying to avoid a rise in Interest Rates.

They know very well that the 3.5%->4.75% rise and Mervyn King's comments in 2004 nearly led to a full-scale crash and I just think it's part of their strategy. The VIs know very well that their market is rotten to the core and they're secretly enjoying the last of the winner's curse money coming in.

You cannot ignore the series of property professionals and international investors who have pulled their money firmly out of Real Estate.

I trust my instincts. You can stay bullish if you like, Marina. Some of us have no choice other than to be bearish because that's the only thing we have left.

So an acknowledgement of a 'mini-boom' but a continuation of the mistrust in the VIs - i.e. they are still spinning. I have to say I completely agree with you there. So I wouldn't use their sudden conversion as evidence of anything - other than, as you say, an attempt to continue to distort the truth.

I am not bullish. But I am not taking a position and sticking it to it either. I took a position - as you know - a bearish one. The decrease in IRs last year killed off what was looking to turn into a full scale crash. I think the VIs know that (so do you). I think Gordon Brown and the BOE know that. I think they'll let sterling fall a longish way before they risk - or are forced into - another IR rise. I see a mini-boom going on. Will it last? Who knows? My guess is probably longer than most people here think.

I think rising property prices are insane. I think this country is going to become progressively a worse place to live - particularly for young people.

Am I going to continue to repeat the bearish arguments of old? No. I'd love to see a HPC. I think that after a painful period some useful lessons will be learned and this country will be a better place for it.

Is a bull someone who wants rising property prices? That's not me. Is a bull someone who thinks property prices are rising - that's me - at least in my little part of the world.

Is a bear someone who wants falling property prices? That's me. Is a bear someone who thinks property prices are falling - that's not me - at least not here.

What I would really like is for you guys to make your voices heard. I believe that is the only way you will change this juggernaut of a market - with the majority of people in the country, the government and the banks etc all with an interest in keeping this farce going - you aren't going to stop it by adopting a bearish stance.

Some people are a bit dense - and think I have become a bull. One of the failings of this site is the adversarial stance taken against bulls. A few people come on here to wind you up and people rise to the bait every time. A shame people are not as quick to get their voices heard by a bigger audience.

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Guest Winners and Losers

One of the failings of this site is the adversarial stance taken against bulls. A few people come on here to wind you up and people rise to the bait every time. A shame people are not as quick to get their voices heard by a bigger audience.

There is a difference between a bull (respected actually here I think) and a troll.

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One of the failings of this site is the adversarial stance taken against bulls. A few people come on here to wind you up and people rise to the bait every time.

Being adversarial against bulls on this forum and rising to their obvious bait is not my style and never really has been.

I just don't have the energy anymore to get angry about it and give myself a heart attack.

I'm just staying out of the madness and doing my own thing.

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Utter cobblers IMO. Yes, sales have increased; but, I don't see prices rising though.

Do you have any hard facts to support this claim?

House opposite me sold at 340k a few months after I moved here. i.e. it sold just before Christmas and Land Registry said it went for that figure. Neighbours tell me it had been on the market for over a year. 10 houses further up the street went on the market about 4 weeks ago. Very similar property, sold within days. Went on at £389,950. Don't know the figure yet - friend knows the vendor - said they got full asking - have to wait for Land Registry to be sure.

This is but one example. I watch the market like a hawk. Until Christmas I was convincing myself (despite a sense of a pick-up even in those dark November and December days) the market was still buggered. (It has been here all through 2004 and the first 9 months of 2005). But in January I could kid myself no longer. I have NEVER seen so many signs turn from FOR SALE to SOLD in my life. Literally hundreds of local properties suddenly sold. I cannot pretend to understand it. I don't want it to happen. But I can't deny it is happening.

So, 'UTTER COBBLERS IMO' - Care to attempt to justify your remark? Do you live in East Berkshire. Are you familiar with the local market? Would you deny that monthly mortgage approvals are not back at brisk bull market levels?

If you think this makes me happy, you're nuts.

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Utter cobblers IMO. Yes, sales have increased; but, I don't see prices rising though.

Do you have any hard facts to support this claim?

You can predict HPI surprisingly accurately *if* you have the approval data. And the level we have at the moment is consistent with renewed positive HPI – fact! But if approvals fell sharply, i.e. if people stopped buying houses, then HPI would fall and we could have a price crash.

And yes, plenty of hard facts and analysis. :)

Edited by spline

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Marina

I also live in Maidenhead, and I watch the market very closely indeed. There are properties selling, always have been and always will be. But I am absolutely certain that prices are not increasing at all - props I started looking at in Oct 05, vast majority still up for sale, several with reduced prices. I am registered with 6 of the agents in town, their mailshots continue to market the same old properties, many of which are now multi-agency. Would be sellers are also now putting their houses on the rental market - there is huge amounts of property for rental in Maidenhead, check the Advertiser and have a look. Very much a stand off between buyers and sellers. I simply do not see any uptick in HPI in this area.

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Yes, I do live in E Berkshire as it happens and like yourself, I monitor the local market continuously.

With the odd exception, prices are most definitely not going up. On average, this year's crop of properties are being valued lower than last year. There are always exceptions from the likes of PSK, Hamptons, Saviils, etc. so don't base your assumptions on just a hand full of properties round your posh neighbourhood.

On Monday I reported 6 previously sold properties reappearing back on the market over the weekend in Cookham alone. A couple have now reverted to SOLD STC once more. This suggests to me that there's a lot of hard-bargaining going on out there, gazundering in other words.

Most of the properties you see being sold, are grotty rentals changing hands between speculators, as ordinary people can no longer afford to buy nor are they willing to pay the prices greedy vendors are after atm. OK, on occasion there's always some mug willing to take the bait, though, they're becoming a rarer species as of late.

Look at the number of empty offices in the region. Do you really think that the local economy can justify/sustain further HPI in the coming years? Have you taken a look at the number of rentals available in the region? How can you fail to have noticed that rents are caving in? Even my rental agent admits to that much and they think it's only gonna worse btw...

Stop panicing and watch the remaining idiots do their thing and trust that it will be to your benefit in the long run...

Your area is a lot posher than mine - I used to live in Cookham. Lovely place, wish I had never moved.

But anyway there is no Hamptons, Savills or any of the other upmarket agents in my nearest local town - Wokingham. Wokingham is a market town with a sprawl of estates around it. Never really thought about it before - there is no 'up-market' agent around here.

Unlike many people - I will not dispute what you say for the simple reason I have no idea what the market is doing where you are. I will at least do you the courtesy of assuming you do, so I take what you say as being correct (although, of course, we are all guilty of seeing things how we want to see them.) That said, I am, as you may know STR - I would very much like prices to be falling. But they aren't - not in my little patch.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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