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Message For Panicking Bears

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Just thought I'd post a quick one for those bears out there who suddenly seem to have lost the plot and are now braying 'its going to rise forever... we were wrong... its the end of the world... asking prices rose 0.3% last month' etc.

Any trend, examined in detail, is actually a 'sawtooth' line, with ups and downs. If you zoom out enough you can, however, see that even taking the little ups and downs into account, the overall effect is ...

down.

Interest rates are set to rise this year (or inflation will spiral out of control as the GBP tanks against the greenback and others). A half a percent rise will CRUCIFY a lot of BTL numpties out there.

Which brings us to the main point -

Even in the depths of the worst house price crash in history, houses still sell

Even if we get our usual 35% crash this time, in the middle of it, people will still be buying and selling houses, perhaps only at 50% of the rate they did at the height of the previous boom, but even so, they will still be changing hands.

Repossessions, forced sales due to illness, death, jobs, family circumstances etc, 'Gastineau Girls' with more money than sense, BTL suckers using daddy's cash (which therefore isn't real money!) and other subsectors will continue to buy and sell property, all the way to the bottom.

So why panic now? Do you REALLY think the VIs and sad little Estate Agents will suddenly stop their tricks for some reason? What you are seeing now is the usual combination of some fools still buying as above, and the old 'lets slap a sold sticker up' tricks.

By the end of the year you lot will be wiping sweat from your brow and praising the gods you didn't buy in 2007, the year the crash became unstoppable.

DONT PANIC

We have enough halfwit bulls posting tripe on here as it is.

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Okay, hands up, I'm mildly bullish on my particular area (its all I can comment on) which is Scotland, but have you actually read that post back to yourself, and how desperate it sounds? :blink:

So on one thread, we have Dr Bubb saying the crash will now be an overnight sensation, a real bolt from the blue, and your in this thread saying its going to be a long drawn out affair. Joined up thinking? I've seen two bulls get shot down for a lot less (get your stories straight, you cant even decide etc etc)

Fair enough, if your evidence is from where you are. Not in this little part of the UK though fella.

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Just thought I'd post a quick one for those bears out there who suddenly seem to have lost the plot and are now braying 'its going to rise forever... we were wrong... its the end of the world... asking prices rose 0.3% last month' etc.

The born again bulls!

I don't think they're true converts. Just using the old - "I used to be like you but saw the light" chestnut in an attempt to validate their spurious arguments.

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Okay, hands up, I'm mildly bullish on my particular area (its all I can comment on) which is Scotland, but have you actually read that post back to yourself, and how desperate it sounds? :blink:

So on one thread, we have Dr Bubb saying the crash will now be an overnight sensation, a real bolt from the blue, and your in this thread saying its going to be a long drawn out affair. Joined up thinking? I've seen two bulls get shot down for a lot less (get your stories straight, you cant even decide etc etc)

Fair enough, if your evidence is from where you are. Not in this little part of the UK though fella.

Dr Bubb saying the crash will be an overnight sensation? I dont think so! :lol::lol:

1% falls over a period of 24/36 months more like.

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I'm not in the UK anymore, and no longer have any intention of buying in chav island.

My opinion is a restatement of what happened last time, and imho what is happening again. I see no reason why 'its different this time'. My experiences in bothe the housing market and most other markets lead me to believe that this 'new paradigm' is bo11ox.

I'm nothing to do with the good doctor. His ideas are his own. If he thinks it will crash 'tomorrow' than that is his affair. Or are you trying to suggest we are the same person????!! Ha!

Sorry if it sounds 'desperate' to you, but that's whats happening. As I no longer live in the UK, and to all intents and purposes have no 'vested interest' anymore, my opinion is essentially impartial now, I'm just calling it as I see it. You particular area may very well be holding up ok right now for all I know, but I'll tell you this for nothing -

You lot are being sucked down a whirlpool, and you will be screaming like drowning rats before the end.

It's nothing personal, its just cycles, stoopid.

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So on one thread, we have Dr Bubb saying the crash will now be an overnight sensation, a real bolt from the blue, and your in this thread saying its going to be a long drawn out affair. Joined up thinking? I've seen two bulls get shot down for a lot less (get your stories straight, you cant even decide etc etc)

I wasn't aware that we all had to share the same future predictions.

Is that part of the forum rules and regs?

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Guest wrongmove

No, the bears mantra (pinched from an old thread) is

Hurry crash now, hurry crash now

Crash now, crash now, hurry, hurry.

:)

Edited by wrongmove

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No, the bears mantra (pinched from an old thread) is

Hurry crash now, hurry crash now

Crash now, crash now, hurry, hurry.

:)

Twist ...bugger I ment to say Snap .....meaning I really ment to say ..... I'll buy Old Kent Road .....no no sell Park Avenue is what I really ment....................just a minute what t*sser put that snake on the top of my ladder? .............Come on Ref sort this game out will ya :D

Edited by Catch22

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I'm not in the UK anymore, and no longer have any intention of buying in chav island.

My opinion is a restatement of what happened last time, and imho what is happening again. I see no reason why 'its different this time'. My experiences in both the housing market and most other markets lead me to believe that this 'new paradigm' is bo11ox.

....

As I no longer live in the UK, and to all intents and purposes have no 'vested interest' anymore, my opinion is essentially impartial now, I'm just calling it as I see it. You particular area may very well be holding up ok right now for all I know, but I'll tell you this for nothing -

You lot are being sucked down a whirlpool, and you will be screaming like drowning rats before the end.

It's nothing personal, its just cycles, stoopid.

Ditto. UK is absurd, so I left. It's 3 am here in NZ, but the smell of Tony Blair in the country is keeping me awake.

Previous UK Labour governments got their accounts in a mess by overspending; this one has cunningly got the population to do most of the overspending on their behalf, and the only thing that prevents voters from realising how much debt they have taken on is HPI. I don't think New Labour engineered the situation, they are not smart enough, but thay can be accused of helping it along because it is to their advantage. Other banks and governments e.g. in NZ, America and OZ have been much more honest about the risks of loose lending than Mervyn King and Gordon Brown have. Down here in NZ and OZ, we get frequent warnings like this from the central banks. It's well worth reading in full.

Statement from the Australian Reserve Bank in the Sydney Morning Herald - 30/3/06

The Reserve reiterated its concern over the proliferation of lenders offering low-doc, no-deposit mortgages with high repayment levels. While this relaxation of credit standards had given Australian households access to cheaper and more flexible loans, it had also created heightened risks in the event of an economic downturn, the central bank warned.

"Lenders and investors have had no experience with how a household sector with current levels of debt is likely to behave in less favourable economic circumstances," it said.

While a strong labour market and income growth had so far helped households to shoulder their heavy debt burden, an increase in defaults was likely over time, the central bank warned.

"To date, the supportive economic environment has meant that this general lowering of lending standards has not led to an increase in banks' overall bad debts expense, although, in time, an increase is likely," it said.

While housing credit growth has slowed over the past two years, overall debt levels remain high, with the average ratio of interest payments to income now almost double the 1990s average at 11 per cent. "In these circumstances, it is important that both borrowers and lenders recognise that the benign credit environment of the recent past may not be the best guide as to how the future unfolds," the central bank said.

The Treasurer, Peter Costello, endorsed the Reserve's warning to lenders.

"The [Reserve] Bank notes that banks need to be careful that they do not overly relax credit standards, and that's something the Government would certainly endorse,"

A couple of years ago, everyone I met seemed to be a property speculation genius - they had made huge gains and, let's be fair, so far they have held onto them. Since then, stock markets around the world boomed and commodities have soared. So, are we all gifted speculators, or, just maybe, when there seems to be almost no bad place to invest money, apart from in the bank, is there a bit of inflation about? I think that the more honest central Banks are warning us and at the same time trying not to panic us. The good times are almost over - we are coming to the end of the era of cheap money and loose lending, the down-cycle that was delayed after 9/11 will soon arrive and when it does it will be ugly.

If I was in the UK, I would be very worried that the Australian central bank is worried at all. OZ is the country whose mineral reserves are used to produce all that Chinese and Japanese stuff that we are all so fond of. Britain exports "services" and ....?

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When I was a kid we used to get some deliveries by horse and cart - can you believe that? Just as recently as the 1950s.

Anyway, the horses were made to wear blinkers so they couldn't see what was going on around them - so they wouldn't be startled into action.

Occasionally one of the horses would have a look sideways - by really craning his neck - and see that, of all the creatures about the place, he was the only one with a bit in his mouth, with blinkers on and with his movement throughout the day governed by someone else holding the reins. When he got back to his stable he used to go on the internet and post in forums about the terrible things he had to endure.

Around the country a few like-minded souls were doing the same thing and they all came to believe that because they had once been free to roam the fields one day the cycle would complete of its own accord and they would be free again.

But, when the cycle did end, it wasn't freedom that awaited them. It was the knacker's yard.

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When I was a kid we used to get some deliveries by horse and cart - can you believe that? Just as recently as the 1950s.

Anyway, the horses were made to wear blinkers so they couldn't see what was going on around them - so they wouldn't be startled into action.

Occasionally one of the horses would have a look sideways - by really craning his neck - and see that, of all the creatures about the place, he was the only one with a bit in his mouth, with blinkers on and with his movement throughout the day governed by someone else holding the reins. When he got back to his stable he used to go on the internet and post in forums about the terrible things he had to endure.

Around the country a few like-minded souls were doing the same thing and they all came to believe that because they had once been free to roam the fields one day the cycle would complete of its own accord and they would be free again.

But, when the cycle did end, it wasn't freedom that awaited them. It was the knacker's yard.

Sorry, your precise point is?

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Was reading a book last night, stated that £ and $ were bad currencies and best to convert to Euro, Swiss Francs, Yen or Canadian Dollars (good call). Also states house prices in UK, Australia and US were a bubble and best to get out and wait for a correction (another good call). Also stated debt was getting out of control. Just thought I'd share!

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I think he's very bitter at having STRed way too early and is now taking it out on the rest of the forum. Looks as if he blames this site for having convinced him to make the wrong decision and is now attempting to lure others into buying just at the wrong time.

The sudden hostility/contempt shown to fellow members is all too revealing IMO...

step up that young man and receive your winners............. CRACKER JACK PENCIL.......Marina....... sorry mate you picked up to many CABBAGES....................this nostalgia twaddle is good innit :D

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No, the bears mantra (pinched from an old thread) is

Hurry crash now, hurry crash now

Crash now, crash now, hurry, hurry.

:)

Hey that was mine - chanted to the tune of 'hare krishna' etc, where's my royalties?

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I think he's very bitter at having STRed way too early and is now taking it out on the rest of the forum. Looks as if he blames this site for having convinced him to make the wrong decision and is now attempting to lure others into buying just at the wrong time.

The sudden hostility/contempt shown to fellow members is all too revealing IMO...

Don't be a wally. It will be a cold day in hell before I let anyone on here convince me to do something. I STRed for my own reasons. I could buy again now for cash - if I wanted to. But I don't. I don't want to live where I live now and I don't want to incur the costs of buying and selling again in a few years.

Hostility/contempt - not really - I'll leave that to the bulls.

Sorry, your precise point is?

I hate people that say what I am about to say - but you leave me no choice.

If I have to explain it to you ....

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Hostility/contempt - not really - I'll leave that to the bulls.

Oh bugger I ment to say Bear ....... I think I ment to say Bear....................MAUREEN my love have you a minute ....... am I a Bull or a Bear .......................Pardon, what day is it, it's Wednesday but what's that got to do with it? :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Edited by Catch22

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Okay, hands up, I'm mildly bullish on my particular area (its all I can comment on) which is Scotland, but have you actually read that post back to yourself, and how desperate it sounds? :blink:

So on one thread, we have Dr Bubb saying the crash will now be an overnight sensation, a real bolt from the blue, and your in this thread saying its going to be a long drawn out affair. Joined up thinking? I've seen two bulls get shot down for a lot less (get your stories straight, you cant even decide etc etc)

Fair enough, if your evidence is from where you are. Not in this little part of the UK though fella.

I am seeing this every other day on here that "Scotland" is still doing well. Scotland is a big place. The only places that have had double digit growth are the places nobody wants to live, but can still afford. This has maintained the supposed increase.

The early stars like Edinburgh and Glasgow are NOT experiencing increases of any magnitude. Depending on what you read and who you believe prices here are falling or standing still.

NDL

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I'm not in the UK anymore, and no longer have any intention of buying in chav island.

My opinion is a restatement of what happened last time, and imho what is happening again. I see no reason why 'its different this time'. My experiences in bothe the housing market and most other markets lead me to believe that this 'new paradigm' is bo11ox.

I'm nothing to do with the good doctor. His ideas are his own. If he thinks it will crash 'tomorrow' than that is his affair. Or are you trying to suggest we are the same person????!! Ha!

Sorry if it sounds 'desperate' to you, but that's whats happening. As I no longer live in the UK, and to all intents and purposes have no 'vested interest' anymore, my opinion is essentially impartial now, I'm just calling it as I see it. You particular area may very well be holding up ok right now for all I know, but I'll tell you this for nothing -

You lot are being sucked down a whirlpool, and you will be screaming like drowning rats before the end.

It's nothing personal, its just cycles, stoopid.

The U.K. is great and has done me no harm, but I have decided to opt out for a time, a time to reflect and reassess the current situation. Life is good, but far too short and I am determined to make the most of it.

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Guest wrongmove

Hey that was mine - chanted to the tune of 'hare krishna' etc, where's my royalties?

Very funny it is too. The cheque is in the post :P

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I am seeing this every other day on here that "Scotland" is still doing well. Scotland is a big place. The only places that have had double digit growth are the places nobody wants to live, but can still afford. This has maintained the supposed increase.

The early stars like Edinburgh and Glasgow are NOT experiencing increases of any magnitude. Depending on what you read and who you believe prices here are falling or standing still.

NDL

Fair enough NDL, I respect what you say, but all I can comment on is here, and I'm glad you understand that. Like I said in another thread, my house isn't even on the market yet, and I've had friends of friends asking me for a viewing/can they have a sniff off the price etc. So, things are definitely not in the toilet for sales then.

As for my BTL stuff (cue the Exorcist music) I have one due vacant in 6 weeks; the guy who came tonight to service my boiler knows this, and has asked if I'll give his brother first refusal. He has looked at a few flats, and they have all been sh!tholes apparently, and Craig, my plumber, knows mine are legit, LL safety certificated etc, and hence I never need to advertise if they are due vacant. So he wants a favour for his brother. So that side of things, especially if your a straight arrow and not some fly by night tw@t LL chancer (honestly, we're not all the same), is still great as well.

Maybe it all just shows the level of regional variation across the UK as a whole?

Edited by billy-g

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The born again bulls!

I don't think they're true converts. Just using the old - "I used to be like you but saw the light" chestnut in an attempt to validate their spurious arguments.

Actually geneer, your absolutely right. I at least am not a true convert. I am a pragmatist. I have wasted far too much of my precious life on the wrong end of the seesaw at the wrong time but obsessed with owning. Its like swings and roundabouts - just when my finances swing in the price roundabout swings out. I am no longer prepared to waste anymore of my precious life on an obsession that doesn't offer the opportunity to manifest. My two thinkings are:

Its like unrequited love. You feel it. It hurts like hell, you hunger, you allow it, and at some stage you get over it... and wonder, "since he wasn't so great, what was that about?" and then there is property "some little shitty terrace in the middle of a treeless street, what was that about?"

Homeowning is a fashion - it goes in and out of, dependant on economics - just like the empire line. When it becomes unfashionable that is when is possible to truly see what is stylish!

I am not a born again bull at all geneer. I am a pragmatist bear who doesn't have a time-callibrated crystal ball.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Actually geneer, your absolutely right. I at least am not a true convert. I am a pragmatist. I have wasted far too much of my precious life on the wrong end of the seesaw at the wrong time but obsessed with owning. Its like swings and roundabouts - just when my finances swing in the price roundabout swings out. I am no longer prepared to waste anymore of my precious life on an obsession that doesn't offer the opportunity to manifest. My two thinkings are:

Its like unrequited love. You feel it. It hurts like hell, you hunger, you allow it, and at some stage you get over it... and wonder, "since he wasn't so great, what was that about?" and then there is property "some little shitty terrace in the middle of a treeless street, what was that about?"

Homeowning is a fashion - it goes in and out of, dependant on economics - just like the empire line. When it becomes unfashionable that is when is possible to truly see what is stylish!

I am not a born again bull at all geneer. I am a pragmatist bear who doesn't have a time-callibrated crystal ball.

Hey Lizbeth. :)

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Fair enough NDL, I respect what you say, but all I can comment on is here, and I'm glad you understand that. Like I said in another thread, my house isn't even on the market yet, and I've had friends of friends asking me for a viewing/can they have a sniff off the price etc. So, things are definitely not in the toilet for sales then.

As for my BTL stuff (cue the Exorcist music) I have one due vacant in 6 weeks; the guy who came tonight to service my boiler knows this, and has asked if I'll give his brother first refusal. He has looked at a few flats, and they have all been sh!tholes apparently, and Craig, my plumber, knows mine are legit, LL safety certificated etc, and hence I never need to advertise if they are due vacant. So he wants a favour for his brother. So that side of things, especially if your a straight arrow and not some fly by night tw@t LL chancer (honestly, we're not all the same), is still great as well.

Maybe it all just shows the level of regional variation across the UK as a whole?

Apologies to the board as I posted completely off topic. Apologies also to you billy-g as I unintentionally took my frustration out on you regarding the whole "Scotland" thing.

I agree that most tenants would rather rent from a professional landlord who is clearly no fly by night. If the price is right of course!! :P

Though I am admittedly bearish on property, I personally believe there is a place for professional landlords. BTL speculation is another matter. Even then though I don't have that much of a problem with it. What I will have a problem with is if I hear them all beating when they get their fingers burned.

I'll shut up now with my off topic post!

NDL

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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