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El_Pirata

The End Of History?

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Bulls are telling us to admit defeat. It's now clear to everyone that the HPC will never happen, they say. In other words, house prices are going to continue inflating into a glorious sunset and all will be happy ever after (exept those stupid missed-the-boaters!). Banks can continue printing money ad-infinitum to push houses to ever great salary multiples, without any negative impact on the economy. Interest rates will stay low for ever. The cycle of boom and bust has come to an end and boom has triumphed. We are at the end of history.

I remember not so long ago some else thought we had come to the end of history. He wrote a book about it, his name was Francis Fukuyama. He said (to sum up brutally) that now the cold war was over, Western liberal democracy had triumphed for good and the clashes between ideologies that had characterised human history were over.

For a while it seemed he was right. The 90s were a pretty peaceful time by and large. Then one September day an event that none of us could have predicted changed everything. History started again.

It is part of the human condition to imagine that we are living at the end of history. When times are bad, we tend to think they will always be bad. When they are good we believe they will go on forever. When Argentina imploded five years ago we thought it was in terminal decline. Now it is booming again and second only to China for economic growth. Will it last? No. Of course not.

And nor will the HPI dream. Things are looking up for the bulls at the moment, it's true. But something will come along and ***** it, and probably when least expected. We will wake up one morning or turn on the afternoon news and some momentous event will be unfolding. Perhaps it will be an attack on sterling like last time. Perhaps some debt crisis. We do not know and can only speculate. But happen it will.

Bulls will call me a pessimist. But I am just a realist, and am all the happier for it. Despite all the wind-ups, I feel very zen today. There is no yin without yang

Peace out

El P (+2 bottles of Malbec)

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I remember not so long ago some else thought we had come to the end of history. He wrote a book about it, his name was Francis Fukuyama. He said (to sum up brutally) that now the cold war was over, Western liberal democracy had triumphed for good and the clashes between ideologies that had characterised human history were over.

For a while it seemed he was right. The 90s were a pretty peaceful time by and large. Then one September day an event that none of us could have predicted changed everything. History started again.

As chance would have it I have just been listening to Francis Fukuyama on NPR this very night. Interesting guy. Basically he has conceded that history is still going after all and has recanted his neoconservative position.

Peace be upon you.

frugalista (+ couple glasses of bordeaux)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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