Am I The Only One That Noticed This

[AgeingBabyBoomer]

Housing may have hit turning point

Or is everyone too busy admitting they were wrong?...

To my mind this is the Nationwide prepping the market for the inevitable.

Cheered me up no end

ABB

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

You're right, the people who say they're wrong are wrong to change because they were right all along.

Err, or something like that.

[AgeingBabyBoomer]

I don't know abou that

To me this is as big as the SIPPs U turn, about as close as we will

get to hearing both the Halifax and Nationwide admit to saying the

market is fekked.

I expected to see hats thrown in the air, hankies waved etc.

ABB

[BuyingBear]

This was posted on another thread, they're just hankering for a rate cut next week.

[AgeingBabyBoomer]

I guess that anwers the question then.

'Whoop' anyway

ABB

[apom]

good find ..

so thats AMEX and Nationwide this week.

HSBC telling its investors a few weeks ago to avoid housing..

Uhm..

BTL mortage lenders not lending....

Most lenders turing bear

[Marina]

How come everything the Nationwide has said up until now was complete rubbish?

Now, suddenly, they are believable, credible, experts etc etc i.e. the exact opposite of everything people on here have been saying about them for the last 2 years.

Nationwide say house prices went up 1% last month - boo, hiss, tossers, liars, w@nkers, VI bull shitters

Nationwide say housing market MIGHT be about to level out - hooray! get the bunting out! these guys really know their onions!

It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic.

Edited March 27, 2006 by Marina

[apom]

How come everything the Nationwide has said up until now was complete rubbish?

Now, suddenly, they are believable, credible, experts etc etc i.e. the exact opposite of everything people on here have been saying about them for the last 2 years.

Everyone takes a while to see it..

Frustration at an organisation for not seeing the situation as I did when I did is valid.

but for them to then admit that the market that they had used to market their product had turned was innevitable.

Their timing was wrong, it had turned before.

Notice the BBC did not mention this though.

Marina, you knw as I do that Gordon Brown and Mervin King have promised no wage push inflation.

to that end this market turning would mean price drops.

Is it possible that this will be the first market ever in history that has ever not turned, it being the biggest boom ever I think it would be unlikley.

I mean, the economic ccycle has always been there...

Is the biggest boom ever the most likely place for it to be fixed?

[music man]

How come everything the Nationwide has said up until now was complete rubbish?

Now, suddenly, they are believable, credible, experts etc etc i.e. the exact opposite of everything people on here have been saying about them for the last 2 years.

Nationwide say house prices went up 1% last month - boo, hiss, tossers, liars, w@nkers, VI bull shitters

Nationwide say housing market MIGHT be about to level out - hooray! get the bunting out! these guys really know their onions!

It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic.

It's simple my dear Watson, they are agreeing with the forum and we're quoting their acknowledgements.

It's like having them say 'you know what, that bloody HPC forum was right'. Bells and whistles to them if they really do agree with the site view.

Nothing personal but it's good news for almost all here I would expect.

Edited March 27, 2006 by music man

[Guest]

Marina,

I was told that the Halifax and Nationwide are audited, and this has certain implications with respect to what they can claim.

For example, I've seen a Halifax regional report (from their web site) which indicates some rises, and some falls YOY across the regions in January 2006. Cambridge -4%, Oxford -10%, if I recall right. Some other areas +10% YOY. Maybe they HAVE to report the real stats, but quietly slip them out the back door.

What gets most people here is forward looking statements, and yearly comparisons "Oooh look how much better it is this year - 30% up on Feb last year blah blah blah" where 30% of bugger-all is still bugger-all.

But I do have a bear-spin filter when reading HPC, and have always kept an eye on what's going on in my local area. Huge properties not selling, small properties languishing for a year - but suddenly:

March 2006: All the "dogs" at the shit end of the market that have been hanging round for a year - the embarrasments - have all SIMULTANEOUSLY gone Under Offer on Rightmove!!!! What's that all about? Some new entries have appeared which have been marked up a bit!

I find this more than a little 'sus' that so many of these should suddenly go, all at once.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on my local Rightmove now, at least.

Apom,

In the nicest possible way, I really think you need a holiday.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

In the nicest possible way, I really think you need a holiday.

Good advice.

[Badger]

How come everything the Nationwide has said up until now was complete rubbish?

Now, suddenly, they are believable, credible, experts etc etc i.e. the exact opposite of everything people on here have been saying about them for the last 2 years.

Nationwide say house prices went up 1% last month - boo, hiss, tossers, liars, w@nkers, VI bull shitters

Nationwide say housing market MIGHT be about to level out - hooray! get the bunting out! these guys really know their onions!

It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic.

Splitter!

Edited March 28, 2006 by Badger

[CrashIsUnderWay]

except for the facft that the writing style is the same, I'd assume Marina's account had been hacked.

Patience, kiddies.

The toilet is always fullest just before the flush.

[Catch22]

Splitter!

Come on fair do's if you believe the reasons behind adopting a certain position regards the market have changed, I think it is reasonable to change your market position. That said it does not mean Marina is right in doing so, but it is his decision, me I'm still taking the opposite view mind. But I do believe Marina has experianced strong upward movement on prices in his area, and lets face it ones own experiances dictate what decisions you make.

All that said, and as we know the BBC sets much store on the pontifications released by the Nationwide and the Halifax, did the BBC cover this story? If it did not then it only strengthens my view that the BBC has now become nothing more than an extension of the Government Propaganda Machine, and is being selective as to what "news" it prints.

The toilet is always fullest just before the flush.

Nice one CIUW Edited March 28, 2006 by Catch22

[othello]

This was posted on another thread, they're just hankering for a rate cut next week.

I don't think so. They are managing expectations IMO. I expect to see the figures showing significant falls over the rest of the year. They can then play it all down and say it is as predicted.

As I said on a thread I started yesterday, I agree that this is a very significant statement and should not be overlooked.

Edited March 28, 2006 by othello

[CrashIsUnderWay]

its a brilliant find - its the NationWideboys admitting that the fraudulent measures they have been using to disguise the crash have now become inadequate to the task at hand.

[Badger]

How come everything the Nationwide has said up until now was complete rubbish?

Now, suddenly, they are believable, credible, experts etc etc i.e. the exact opposite of everything people on here have been saying about them for the last 2 years.

Nationwide say house prices went up 1% last month - boo, hiss, tossers, liars, w@nkers, VI bull shitters

Nationwide say housing market MIGHT be about to level out - hooray! get the bunting out! these guys really know their onions!

It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic.

Maybe, if this site was called Housepriceambiguity.co.uk, but it isn't, hence the bias..surely you remember that from your 2,000-odd posts?

[munimula]

Marina,

I was told that the Halifax and Nationwide are audited, and this has certain implications with respect to what they can claim.

For example, I've seen a Halifax regional report (from their web site) which indicates some rises, and some falls YOY across the regions in January 2006. Cambridge -4%, Oxford -10%, if I recall right. Some other areas +10% YOY. Maybe they HAVE to report the real stats, but quietly slip them out the back door.

The Halifax report was for 12 months to Dec 2005

Somerset had the largest fall: -10%, Oxford was -9%

If you stripped out Scotland and NI rises for the UK then UK HPI for 2005 by Halifax figures would have been negative

38 counties have seen a modest fall (an average of 4%) in prices over the past year with these counties being mainly in southern England and the midlands. Four of the 10 counties recording the biggest falls are in the South East, two in the South West and West Midlands and one each in the East Midlands and East Anglia. The biggest house price falls over the past year have been in Somerset (-10%), Oxfordshire (-9%) and Hertfordshire and West Sussex both with -7%. These falls, however, need to be viewed in the context of the substantial price rises recorded in these parts of the country during the last few years.

Edited March 28, 2006 by munimula

[BillyShears]

The Halifax report was for 12 months to Dec 2005

Somerset had the largest fall: -10%, Oxford was -9%

If you stripped out Scotland and NI rises for the UK then UK HPI for 2005 by Halifax figures would have been negative

Can we then say "house prices are falling in England"?

Billy Shears

[munimula]

Can we then say "house prices are falling in England"?

Billy Shears

Definitely.

These are the only counties posting positive HPI in 2005;

County Region 2004 Average Price* 2005 Average Price* % change

Co-Londonderry N-Ireland 105,839 122,180 15%

County-Tyrone N-Ireland 102,959 115,480 12%

Grampian Scotland 120,065 133,376 11%

County-Antrim N-Ireland 112,531 124,983 11%

Fife Scotland 107,919 119,551 11%

Dyfed Wales 143,344 156,400 9%

County-Armagh N-Ireland 104,819 114,328 9%

Gwynedd Wales 140,657 153,122 9%

Strathclyde Scotland 116,747 126,548 8%

Highland Scotland 130,749 141,465 8%

Tayside Scotland 122,112 130,830 7%

County-Down N-Ireland 128,955 138,142 7%

Central Scotland 114,811 121,725 6%

Mid-Glamorgan Wales 115,490 122,262 6%

County-Fermanagh N-Ireland 111,187 117,524 6%

Lancashire North-West 127,148 133,876 5%

Borders Scotland 140,061 147,198 5%

Lothian Scotland 161,095 168,786 5%

Dumfries-&-Galloway Scotland 117,993 123,283 4%

Cumbria North 142,532 147,538 4%

Northumberland North 143,228 147,956 3%

Merseyside North-West 139,088 142,002 2%

County-Durham North 123,555 125,950 2%

Cleveland North 126,629 128,668 2%

Gloucestershire South-West 195,406 198,280 1%

South-Yorkshire Yorks-and-Humb 124,412 126,192 1%

West-Glamorgan Wales 128,135 129,953 1%

West-Yorkshire Yorks-and-Humb 135,159 136,457 1%

North-Humberside Yorks-and-Humb 124,349 125,196 1%

[right_freds_dead]

BTL boom, as landlords wake up to the reality of what low yields mean in an era of boring to zero capital returns?

without the insane capital gains, housing for most single property btlrs is a long drawn out hassle for very little. most were expecting the obligatory 20k profit in 4 months on top of the yeild. the yield was a side issue more many.

Lancashire North-West 127,148 133,876 5%

funny then that my friends mum has had her NW 3 bed semi on the market for 16 months. a house i looked at in oct is still for sale. houses round here go on initially for dream money, then after a while the boards just disappear and the house comes off the market.

5% rises - i dont think so....in reality.

Edited March 28, 2006 by right_freds_dead

[BillyShears]

Definitely.

Then why do most people I know think that prices are going up? Yes, I know, because UK prices as a whole went up a bit and that is what was reported in the press.

Rather than a list of places where prices went up and/or down, do the Nationwide/Halifax figures allow a true HPI/D value for England to be calculated?

Edit: Wait a second, those were changes to DEC 2005. When do we get newer figures?

Billy Shears

Edited March 28, 2006 by BillyShears

[Catch22]

Maybe, if this site was called Housepriceambiguity.co.uk, but it isn't, hence the bias..surely you remember that from your 2,000-odd posts?

Nice one