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Bagehot

Bear: Ready To Admit You Were Wrong?

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I havent posted here for ages. I am conceding the HPC is not going to occur - without an shock to the system (which can happen at any time)

I think this site is becoming redundant

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Guest The_Oldie

You may think this site is now redundant, but others don't :).

With regard to HPC not occuring, you've said that before on more than one occasion.

There are more rabbits to be pulled out of the hat! Our current account deficit is "only" 3%ish. The Americans are at 7%+ and rising. If he gets rid of the golden rule, which he has to an extent, he can carry on borrowing and spending and places like the North East can continue to have 20% of its workforce on incapacity benefit and 40%+ on the public sector payroll or jobs that exist because of public spending.

There will be no HPC for a few more years yet.

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yawn.

I suppose if your average underemployed estate agent troll creates 10 new identities a day, he's bound to forget a few, and only find them again when he's REALLY bored, and is cleaning up his email inbox cos NOTHING IS SELLING which is, of course, the precursor to THE BIGGEST HOUSE PRICE CRASH OF ALL TIME when measured either in absolute or relative terms.

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With regard to HPC not occuring, you've said that before on more than one occasion.

That wouldn't be 68 times would it?

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I havent posted here for ages. I am conceding the HPC is not going to occur - without an shock to the system (which can happen at any time)

I think this site is becoming redundant

Time for you to buy lots of property then!

Billy Shears

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Guest Fiddlesticks

With regard to HPC not occuring, you've said that before on more than one occasion.

Bagehot, thou hast not been a true exponent of the faith. Thy doctrine has been impure and thou hast allowed doubt to cloud thine eyes. Begone to the eternal fiery pit, where Kirsty and all her demons shall torment thee with the dogma of the heretics for all eternity.

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As I have been predicting for two years now, a downturn will kick-in between late 2006 and the end of 2007. I might be wrong, but I was one of the few who got out of (1) Asia and (2) Internet bubble with only 2 and 4.5 months to spare on each occasion. I've STRd this year in readiness.

Watching with interest!

The downturn will come when the mainstream is least expecting it. I take heart every time a read a post like yours B):)

Edited by gruffydd

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As I have been predicting for two years now, a downturn will kick-in between late 2006 and the end of 2007. I might be wrong, but I was one of the few who got out of (1) Asia and (2) Internet bubble with only 2 and 4.5 months to spare on each occasion. I've STRd this year in readiness.

Watching with interest!

The downturn will come when the mainstream is least expecting it. I take heart every time a read a post like yours B):)

Remember 2000? The tech bubble may have poppled in early March 2000, and there were steep falls in the spring. However there was a long, Indian summer, when many tech shares rallied strongly. I suspect that this is what's happening with property. When the bubble pops, the bulls, and those who think they've got another chance to buy 'cheaply' will support the price. I'm not sure, but I think a similar thing happened when the property bubble popped in the late 1980s. Put another way, we could well be seeing a strong, dead cat bounce. If you're clever, and particularly if you focus on London, you might be able to trade the bounce, but in my opinion one shouldn't delude oneself into thinking it's a recovery. Perhaps it's time to sell into strength?

Edited by Scipio_Africanus

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Bagehot, thou hast not been a true exponent of the faith. Thy doctrine has been impure and thou hast allowed doubt to cloud thine eyes. Begone to the eternal fiery pit, where Kirsty and all her demons shall torment thee with the dogma of the heretics for all eternity.

Another estate agent?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I havent posted here for ages. I am conceding the HPC is not going to occur - without an shock to the system (which can happen at any time)

I think this site is becoming redundant

Did you not say Gordon Brown was your Boss, well if anything is redundant dear old Gordon will soon be. ;)

I will ask my boss along, the great Boom and Bust GB.

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i just dont see anything happening. The media tends to exaggerate and so do many people on this site. i do think that the next decade will be a nasty one. I do think that the direction for this country is a wrong one. But I think the economy and Govt finances - despite all the media exagerations - are in a good state.

Secondly, we have to conede there is a structural improvement to the UK economy (the supply side reforms worked!) and the global economy (introduction of 3 billion workers from China and India) resulting in sustainablly low inflation and low IRs for the rest of the decade.....

...unless there's a shock to the system.

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Stuff I have been reading about China recently suggests they are going to shift from quantity to quality and on profitability instead of lots of capacity. Pay rates for certain grades of staff are also rising fast. I'm not sure how long the cheap imported 'inflation' will last. Keep an eye on the next 5 year plan as it unfolds.

Let's put the housing market in a different context - would Warren Buffet be buying property now?

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i just dont see anything happening. The media tends to exaggerate and so do many people on this site.

I'm viewing a house tomorrow... sold in 2001 for £250,000. Asking price today is £199,950. Compared with what you can get for that price now this house is seriously over-priced but I'm intrigued to see it. Does that constitute nothing happening? I wonder if the vendors would share your view? :unsure:

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I am was a bear (this does not mean I am a bull now). I am ready to admit that we will not see significant price falls in the next two years, possibly for the rest of this decade. I am 99% sure we will not see prices at pre 2003 levels ever!

It's looking a bit pathetic when you see people grabing hold of every bit of news and predicting complete collapse of the market tommorow.

ANy HPC HAS to be time dependent. No one would predict house prices falling back to 1979 levels.

I am saddened that the stupidity and greed of the masses means that house price levels are sustainable (give or take a few percentage points either way)

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I am was a bear (this does not mean I am a bull now). I am ready to admit that we will not see significant price falls in the next two years, possibly for the rest of this decade. I am 99% sure we will not see prices at pre 2003 levels ever!

It's looking a bit pathetic when you see people grabing hold of every bit of news and predicting complete collapse of the market tommorow.

ANy HPC HAS to be time dependent. No one would predict house prices falling back to 1979 levels.

I am saddened that the stupidity and greed of the masses means that house price levels are sustainable (give or take a few percentage points either way)

cheers for your valuable insight. not much left for you to do now other than de-register from this forum. why not pop back in two years to discuss how your predictions turned out ?

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I am was a bear (this does not mean I am a bull now). I am ready to admit that we will not see significant price falls in the next two years, possibly for the rest of this decade. I am 99% sure we will not see prices at pre 2003 levels ever!

It's looking a bit pathetic when you see people grabing hold of every bit of news and predicting complete collapse of the market tommorow.

ANy HPC HAS to be time dependent. No one would predict house prices falling back to 1979 levels.

I am saddened that the stupidity and greed of the masses means that house price levels are sustainable (give or take a few percentage points either way)

When I see prices rising again in my back-yard then, and only then will I worry.

I have saved £50k by not buying a property in 2005 that I liked, it has been reduced

that much.

I’m still waiting for LR to give me details on another property in my street that sold last month,

I have seen prices dropping here for just under a year now!

Remember the sort of Government we have in power at the moment! then ask yourself

am I being told the truth????????

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i just dont see anything happening. ...unless there's a shock to the system.

theres IS something happening. ftbs are not buying in any kind of the volume needed to support the bubble.

the crash is underway, but it takes MONTHS and MONTHS. like watching a fuel gauge empty. takes time. you can see it move, but look back in an hour and its moved. thats the current market.

i wish i could be buying but im not. no one i know is buying. i wish i had some anecdotal about it, but all i have are two sellers who are struggling over 12 months now with no sale and hardly any viewings. the prices are a fantasy.

this site will be dull and pointless from here on in as the job is done and the bubble is deflating.

by the time you have read this post an average house would have falled by at least 50p.

imagine the price in 3 years.

the market has eaten the very last buyers. only the cautious and the priced out remain awaiting.

its now a waiting game.

houses wont rise as they have to where to go.

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I am coming to bleive I underrated the structural reasons why a significant HPC may not occur, they include (below).

-Supply side reforms of Thatcher continued by New Labour (though slowly chipping away)

-Low inflation thanks to immigration

-Low inflation thanks to emerging economies: China, Eastern Europe

-Baby boomers financially helping children via capital donations/inheritance

-Significant increase in BTL and middle classes diversifying from equities after tax-perks in PEPS and ISA completley removed

-Significant increase in prosperity amongst public sector employees

-Booming world economy after the pro-market reforms

-REITS (when they come and diversiy more towards residential property complexes in the major cities)

-The beating of high inflation and high interest rates (it took two decades by the policy makers eventually did it)

If we accept structural changes than we can explain some of the HPI (clearly sentiment and irrationalism has a major role to play).

Can you think of reasoned non-childish arguements against above.

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I havent posted here for ages. I am conceding the HPC is not going to occur - without an shock to the system (which can happen at any time) I think this site is becoming redundant

Here we go, someone has lost his bottle. You have probably gone put yourself into hock with a grossly overpriced property.

Unemployment is rising rapidly. The rise this year could be as high as 200,000. Repossessions and bancrupcies are rising rapidly. Does it not occur to you what the inevitable outcome of this process will be?

I don't think you are bull at all, you are an ex bear with a large brown stain in your trousers.

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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