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New Bear

Fewer Sellers Says The Guardian

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The Guardian article posted on the blog gives quite a balanced view of what seems to have been happening in the market this year:

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/st....html?gusrc=rss

Essentially there are fewer houses on the market but a burst of buying.

This conforms to my own impressions in North Warwickshire:

i) some houses still on from last year with small reductions in price

ii) but many taken off last December, still to reappear

iii) number of for sale boards growing but not to the level they were at last autumn

iv) the proportion of for sale to sold signs has gone up - now about 2:1.

Seems to me sellers may have given up or are holding off. Why?

And will it last if they see headlines saying the market is moving again?

Edited by New Bear

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Has this caused the first ever winter bounce (as it was called in an earlier thread)?

Can anyone, particularly the bulls tell us whether this is a pattern they expect to happen from now on. That is, instead of the traditional upturns expected in spring and autumn we now have them in winter. Has this winter pickup been caused by those holding off buying throughout last year?

The fact that traditionally slow months such as November to now have had stronger activity than the spring / summer of last year still leads me to believe that the recent crowing about a pickup in activity and prices will be an anomaly rather than a pattern.

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Has this caused the first ever winter bounce (as it was called in an earlier thread)?

Can anyone, particularly the bulls tell us whether this is a pattern they expect to happen from now on. That is, instead of the traditional upturns expected in spring and autumn we now have them in winter. Has this winter pickup been caused by those holding off buying throughout last year?

The fact that traditionally slow months such as November to now have had stronger activity than the spring / summer of last year still leads me to believe that the recent crowing about a pickup in activity and prices will be an anomaly rather than a pattern.

Its probably down to the massive city bouses paid out the last couple of years in the Dec to Mar period.

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Its probably down to the massive city bouses paid out the last couple of years in the Dec to Mar period.

Whilst it is certainly a cliche to cite city bonuses as factors around this time, it is far too significant that current price rises are london based and in the mid to top end of the market for it to be anything different.

The problem is that the sight of this removed-from-normality market performing well continues to inspire those down the curve that things are cheap and worth further investment. Essentially the top of market performing no longer relies on the FTB kicking off the chain, but instead is self-fulling as any price rise is enough to encourage further investment at the levels further down. Completely @rse about tit.

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There's almost certainly a bonus effect, but it's not confnied to the top end as many people seem to think.

The big guys taking 6+ figures make the headlines, but back office reasonably junior accountants are taking enough for a flat deposit.

The only thing I would question is timing. Traditionally they're not paid until the end of Jan once the prior year end numbers are finalised (there are some exceptions) so if the indices you refer to are driven by completions, it's a bit quick.

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There's almost certainly a bonus effect, but it's not confnied to the top end as many people seem to think.

The big guys taking 6+ figures make the headlines, but back office reasonably junior accountants are taking enough for a flat deposit.

The only thing I would question is timing. Traditionally they're not paid until the end of Jan once the prior year end numbers are finalised (there are some exceptions) so if the indices you refer to are driven by completions, it's a bit quick.

Timing is important if bonuses are to be used as an explanation of the London rise. Though I suppose if city workers knew a big bonus was coming they might move on buying a house before they actually received it.

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Timing is important if bonuses are to be used as an explanation of the London rise. Though I suppose if city workers knew a big bonus was coming they might move on buying a house before they actually received it.

Exactly. I work with a lot of city firms with comp and bens advice. A lot of these guys know about their bonus' before the year end and most are paid in Jan. Then you have to look at last years share options etc that are coming up to vest etc. Its not the people at the top I was talking about. Its they guys on 50k a year that get a bumper 20k bonus' and want to get on the ladder. More people got large (relitavely as a proportion of salary) bonus' this year than ever before.

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This post just confirms how out of touch many, many people are on here with the real world.

It would then follow that they are out of touch with what is really happennong in the property market.

This would then explain why us bulls find it titteringly funny that you are still waffling on and on and on.

So, city bonuses are having an an effect on the winter market? well they may be in central London but I can assure you that we have not felt their effect in Brierley Hill.

This is what really makes me chuckle, the reneralisations regarding the property market.

X happens in area 1 so X will also happen in area 2.

Wrong.

Sure, there may be some larger factors that will influence the market as a whole, but only to a degree.

The market is so diverse with so many submarkets that to believe that you can assess what is happenning accross the whole UK housing market at any one time is a little silly and overconfident.

Dont you think?

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Seems to me sellers may have given up or are holding off. Why?

i have mentioned on a couple of posts my recent visit to the Halifax MA - just to re-iterate, she said there were fewer houses coming onto the market because 'People cannot afford to move. They can't afford the extra £50k for an extra bedroom so they are borrowing £10 and doing up their existing places'. They are her words, not mine.

So, it would appear all those bulls who think houses are affordable are talking crap as usual.

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This post just confirms how out of touch many, many people are on here with the real world.

It would then follow that they are out of touch with what is really happennong in the property market.

This would then explain why us bulls find it titteringly funny that you are still waffling on and on and on.

So, city bonuses are having an an effect on the winter market? well they may be in central London but I can assure you that we have not felt their effect in Brierley Hill.

This is what really makes me chuckle, the reneralisations regarding the property market.

X happens in area 1 so X will also happen in area 2.

Wrong.

Sure, there may be some larger factors that will influence the market as a whole, but only to a degree.

The market is so diverse with so many submarkets that to believe that you can assess what is happenning accross the whole UK housing market at any one time is a little silly and overconfident.

Dont you think?

Fantastic! Thanks so much! What a great point!! Who'd have guessed it!!! Really I'd never thought of that before. The scales have fallen from my eyes! Now I suddenly see why they break down price reports into regions and that sort of thing. Well and here's me thinking they were being a little bit over-fussy. OMG why didn't I see that before! You must be ever so clever! You should write to the telly and let them know too! Maybe they'll give you a prize. They should!!

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This post just confirms how out of touch many, many people are on here with the real world.

It would then follow that they are out of touch with what is really happennong in the property market.

This would then explain why us bulls find it titteringly funny that you are still waffling on and on and on.

So, city bonuses are having an an effect on the winter market? well they may be in central London but I can assure you that we have not felt their effect in Brierley Hill.

SNIP

LATK, the reach of the London money gravity well reaches deep into the provinces. Very few of those I know in the financial services industry are buying in the capital: I'm thinking Hull, Whitstable... S Yorks. And the purchases are for different reasons: investment, weekender, to be nearer the family in the future, etc.

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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