nodumsunreader Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Lots of bad news for retailers over the last few months. See graph: The graph shows MEW, both in monetary value and also as a % of post tax income. If retailers think they have it bad now, then this shows how much worse it can get. The graph shows that MEW has fallen by £10 billion from its peak. That is £10 billion not available for people to spend in retailers. Looking at the graph there is still around £8 billion being spent via MEW. This represents about 4% of post tax income. I noticed in some other graph a while back that MEW went negative during the last crash (ie. people actually over paid on their mortgages rather than securing further borrowing). If sentiment changes so that this happens again, and for arguments sake MEW goes negative on this graph to the tune of £2 billion (very possible IMHO) then the retailers would lose a possible £10 billion more. Comments? Economy moving away from being consumer based to export based. There are only so many consumer goods that can fit into the average 3 bed semi after all. In all seriousness, Britain has been on a consumerist orgy for the past 30 years or so. People are consumered out. The economy is changing to something more sustainable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Live_in_hope Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 (edited) Retail certainly a changing place which I'm sure most of their will get through with goods costing a lot less than they did in 1999, I can't see margins being affected too badly. Just a case of each retailer closing down a few shops / stores & getting on with it. Edited March 27, 2006 by Live_in_hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Economy moving away from being consumer based to export based. There are only so many consumer goods that can fit into the average 3 bed semi after all. In all seriousness, Britain has been on a consumerist orgy for the past 30 years or so. People are consumered out. The economy is changing to something more sustainable. ah - so you anticipate a smooth changeover from a consumer-based economy to an export led one, do you? so tell me what the UK has that the rest of the world want to buy - rover cars? pork chops from dewhurst? the UK manufacturing base has been in decline since the start of the 20th century - we couldn't even make the shells to fire during world war one and imported 2/3 of them from the US/canada... i was browsing the BBC website - does the link below remind you of anyone? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pict...sis/html/10.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodumsunreader Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 ah - so you anticipate a smooth changeover from a consumer-based economy to an export led one, do you? so tell me what the UK has that the rest of the world want to buy - rover cars? pork chops from dewhurst? the UK manufacturing base has been in decline since the start of the 20th century - we couldn't even make the shells to fire during world war one and imported 2/3 of them from the US/canada... Have a look: http://www.mediacentre.lloydstsb.com/media...eak_Economy.pdf http://www.cbi.org.uk/ndbs/press.nsf/0363c...7f?OpenDocument Exports and services not doing quite as badly as you may be led to believe. The smooth transition may already be here!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Have a look: http://www.mediacentre.lloydstsb.com/media...eak_Economy.pdf http://www.cbi.org.uk/ndbs/press.nsf/0363c...7f?OpenDocument Exports and services not doing quite as badly as you may be led to believe. The smooth transition may already be here!! thanks for those meanwhile in the real world the UK appears to be running RECORD deficits in both goods and services http://business.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=737&id=209302006 the second paragraph of your CBI link indicates that "property, management and legal services" are booming whereas everyone else is feeling the pinch. apart from legal services based in the City servicing a global clientale, what in the way of property and management services do we export? i have not seen any shiny suited foxton EA's in downtown shanghai recently... so i ask again. "what does the UK have which the rest of the world wishes to purchase?" the link above indicates not very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 "what does the UK have which the rest of the world wishes to purchase?" Property! Australia has a healthy export market does it not? If so, it did not stop house prices falling. What is causing house prices to fall in Oz is A LACK OF FTB's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brainclamp Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 nodumsunreader - thanks for those links they are illuminating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichM Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Back in reality manufacturing has lost a million jobs over the past 9 years, investment is at a record low, and we still running a trade deficit. Back step Germany, China, and Japan, marvel at the mighty export-led UK recovery! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
music man Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 nodumsunreader - thanks for those links they are illuminating. They really are, it's great that they're not going down more, or they'd be completely dead, like Rover. And to see the spin is always good for a laugh. http://business.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=737&id=209302006 has a more balanced bigger picture story with historical indicators. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Back step Germany, China, and Japan, marvel at the mighty export-led UK recovery! Maybe we're going to start exporting overpriced houses . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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