othello Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 A piece of news reported in the Observer seems to have been overlooked by many but seems to be the most profound acknowledgement from two of the biggest building societies that the property market is about to fall. Nationwide economists (with supporting comments by the Halifax) have said that the property market may have reached a turning point - in other words for the first time as far as I am aware they acknowledge that the market is likely to fall. That is not to say a temporary drop, but a TURNING POINT. Given that these two VIs probably have a better view of what is actually happening than anybody else and given their general propensity to talk the market up, I assume that they see the writing on the wall and are unable to argue that black is white any more. They will never openly admit to the possibility of a crash (until it has happened) but looking beyond the spin, I think this is a dramatic statement. http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/st...1739418,00.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Just as I was about to turn into a bull too (not) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wifeling-smi Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 'We're at a turning point,' said Fionnula Earley, Nationwide's chief economist. 'I think we are at the stage where affordability constraints are biting - and there are other things on the horizon that will stop people splashing out: higher utility bills, rising unemployment.' yes - nothing to do with ridiculously over-inflated house prices - blame everything else.... utility bills and unemployment are just the straws breaking the HPI's back... still can't admit it can they... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashIsUnderWay Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 damn fine post. All these 'oh it hasnt REALLY crashed where I live yet so it never will' posts just crack me up - the giant supertanker that is the UK property market is about to run aground, and NOTHING any of you can do will stop it. It's just too big. The little blips along the way are just that - little blips, insignificant in the context of a few years hindsight, just as they were insignificant during the previous (now ended) boom. Get used to the fact that property for the next 5 - 10 years will be cheaper (possibly a LOT cheaper) than it is today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 (edited) Get used to the fact that property for the next 5 - 10 years will be cheaper (possibly a LOT cheaper) than it is today. Amen to that. I cannot understand the hysteria on here in recent weeks. As CIUW said, the data over recent months has just been "blips" up one month, down the next as overall, the trend was and is basically static. When Mervyn King spoke a couple of years ago with "debt is real", he knew it. When he spoke more recently with the "nice era is ending" he knew it. The Nationwide et al are now starting to see, particularly with what is going on in the world credit scene - it is TIGHTENING and TIGHTENING FAST. 2006, will be the year where the sh1t really starts to hit the fan. I still believe the crash started in late 2004, but later this year we are likely to start seeing the appearance of nominal falls. Edited March 27, 2006 by BubbleTurbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 2006, will be the year where the sh1t really starts to hit the fan. I still believe the crash started in late 2004, but later this year we are likely to start seeing the appearance of nominal falls. Started in Oz in late 2003, but no reports of falls until early 2005. What does that make it, about 18mths of denial, stagnation, then smallish falls, bit of a 'phantom recovery' at end of 2005, stagnation again - more falls next? I think UK is at 'phantom recovery'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
othello Posted March 27, 2006 Author Share Posted March 27, 2006 I still believe the crash started in late 2004, but later this year we are likely to start seeing the appearance of nominal falls. Absolutely. The crash started in South East England in 2004 but was disguised by continuing rises in the North, Outer Hebrides etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solvent Celt Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 damn fine post. All these 'oh it hasnt REALLY crashed where I live yet so it never will' posts just crack me up - the giant supertanker that is the UK property market is about to run aground, and NOTHING any of you can do will stop it. It's just too big. The little blips along the way are just that - little blips, insignificant in the context of a few years hindsight, just as they were insignificant during the previous (now ended) boom. Get used to the fact that property for the next 5 - 10 years will be cheaper (possibly a LOT cheaper) than it is today. Doesn't help that the majority are still lounging on the sun deck with a view of the blue skies showing aft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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