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classixuk

Get On The Ladder...get On The Ladder

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This short post is in response to all of the nonsense I have been reading here lately by a HUGE amount of bulls (even bears turned bulls) saying "The market's turning again where I am", "Your generation will be priced out for ever and you'll never own a home" blah blah blah.

Have you stopped to think for one second that perhaps some people are actually happy renting? Yes; H-A-P-P-Y. It's that emotion you feel when you can take your partner out for a nice romantic meal, it's watching your kid's eyes light up when you take him to the park at weekends to feed the ducks, it's sharing time with your elderly parents or grandparents. All these things are what make life special. Whether you rent or own a home, it acheives the same objective...a warm shelter with a roof to keep you dry. Happiness isn't a mortgage or a lease, and for those of you who appear to think it is, you have my sympathy.

Your lives must be pretty lonely if your hobby is to find internet sites where you can gloat over complete strangers how you own a home and they will never get the chance to do the same. Don't you have any real friends or family you could socialise with? I guess with an attitude like that I certainly wouldn't want you as a friend.

I think that genuine Bulls are made more than welcome here as they contribute a great deal to the discussions; smug and arrogant snakes however should be left to slither back into the holes they appeared from. If their real friends and family won't entertain them at weekends, why the hell should we get left with the job?

All snakes from here on in will be placed in my ignore list. If everyone else does the same and refuses to reply to their obnoxious posts, their topics will slide straight off the front page and into oblivion!

Edited by classixuk

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Guest Winners and Losers

Get on the ladder quick, before it is too late.

It may collapse soon, and you will miss the chance to experience negative equity.

It provides a valuable learning experience for those that can learn no other way

It surely does, it surely does. Thank goodness that prices started to fall in Australia first and I decided to do some research. Otherwise I could be lumbered with an overpriced UK property as well. Double whammy. Me and Mr WAL are very happy renting - we might not want to stay in this neck of the woods forever. The freedom of it is wonderful. Having been a home owner for 10 years and pretty much stuck.

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Of the people I ask, usually in a light manner, about the future of the housing market, the overwhelming majority believe that there will be no house price crash. And yes, they do believe that house prices will keep going up forever.

Surprisingly, the only person I know personally who said that she thought that house prices are likely to experience a "correction" is my sister who is a journalist!

Billy Shears

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I thought happiness was watching your kids eyes light up when they see 'their' room, not their 'rented room'.

But if you live in rented property you get to see their eyes light up when they see their new room more frequently.

TTRtR, would you be interested in a bet with me? Real house prices in five years time. If the real prices are higher then I pay you £1 for each percentage point that they are higher than they are now. If the real prices in five years are lower, then you pay me £1 for each percentage point that they are lower than they are now.

Billy Shears

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I thought happiness was watching your kids eyes light up when they see 'their' room, not their 'rented room'.

Yea because the difference is very important to a child.

WTF

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Guest Winners and Losers

I thought happiness was watching your kids eyes light up when they see 'their' room, not their 'rented room'.

I could answer that, if I had kids. :P:lol:

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But if you live in rented property you get to see their eyes light up when they see their new room more frequently.

TTRtR, would you be interested in a bet with me? Real house prices in five years time. If the real prices are higher then I pay you £1 for each percentage point that they are higher than they are now. If the real prices in five years are lower, then you pay me £1 for each percentage point that they are lower than they are now.

Billy Shears

Billy, no personal offence intended, but in 2011, I hope I can't even remember your name, let alone that we made a bet.

Anyway, would you really want to remember this for 5 years for a potential upside no greater than £100 (100%), but in reality, not likely to ever exceed £30?

Give me a bet on nominal prices at £10 for every % & I'll think about it.

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Guest wrongmove

Of the people I ask, usually in a light manner, about the future of the housing market, the overwhelming majority believe that there will be no house price crash. And yes, they do believe that house prices will keep going up forever.

Do all these people have a connection with the VIs ?

Anyone here who isn't uber-bear is accused of being paid by the VIs. Yet in the wider (real) world, most people are neutral to bullish. :lol::lol::lol:

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There is no housing ladder anymore for the majority.

For the 'housing ladder' to work as it did in the past you need the average persons wages to increase at a far faster rate than the cost of housing does.

If HPI is constantly higher than wage inflation then there is no housing ladder.

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Billy, no personal offence intended, but in 2011, I hope I can't even remember your name, let alone that we made a bet.

Anyway, would you really want to remember this for 5 years for a potential upside no greater than £100 (100%), but in reality, not likely to ever exceed £30?

Give me a bet on nominal prices at £10 for every % & I'll think about it.

Nominal prices are quite a different kettle of fish. I see inflation returning with a vengence as a quite likely method of returning house prices to long term average. In fact it's on my list of things to do to research further how to protect my deposit in case the pound tanks. Where's that investment forum? But returning to the topic, I think the chance of nominal prices being lower in 5 years is greater than 50% but I'm not sure enough to bet on it.

I have electronic calendars, so could easily put details in the calendar 5 years ahead of time. And I never ever bet, except where it's unavoidable (rent or buy), so even the pound per point is quite radical for me. But I wasn't serious about the bet.

Billy Shears

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Get on the ladder quick, before it is too late.

It may collapse soon, and you will miss the chance to experience negative equity.

It provides a valuable learning experience for those that can learn no other way

Also.. Everyone will be priced out.. you will miss your chance..

So everyone will get priced out?

Will they..?

Can an item actually retain a value that its market cannot afford?

Well as depending on which report you read prices are either dropping or rising slower then inflation..

So lets wait and see at no risk

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I thought happiness was watching your kids eyes light up when they see 'their' room, not their 'rented room'.

Only because that makes you happy, not because they care I think. Kids are far more resilient than adults. They wouldn't let something as idiotic as house ownership be the determinant of their happiness. By the time they have been burdened with the petty cares of the materialistic adult world and so might actually have their happiness altered by the status of their parent’s property, they will be near enough ready to go out and buy their own house and perpetuate the whole sorry affair. Before that, thankfully, I doubt they give a hoot.

You betray only your own insecurities through a statement like the one you make above. Very telling.

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Billy, no personal offence intended, but in 2011, I hope I can't even remember your name, let alone that we made a bet.

Anyway, would you really want to remember this for 5 years for a potential upside no greater than £100 (100%), but in reality, not likely to ever exceed £30?

Give me a bet on nominal prices at £10 for every % & I'll think about it.

TTRTR I remember on a spreadbetting post you didnt believe in gambeling!!! :D

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Here's a novel way to protect your deposit:

Buy a property, the rampant inflation you speak of will mean your deposit grows along with the growth of the price of the property you buy.

Thats rubbish growth.

Why not research the markets and play for a 15-20% growth?

I got about 28% in the last 12 months. I am smart enough to know that is not sustainable.

If it were, then I could invest 1K today and see it grow to 31million quid by the time I retire aged 65.

If you think property is a good way to make money then you are just plain wrong. Even a property boom has provided modest returns.

Its just a fashionable thing to do right now, so everyone is paying fashionable prices.

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Also.. Everyone will be priced out.. you will miss your chance..

So everyone will get priced out?

Will they..?

Can an item actually retain a value that its market cannot afford?

Well as depending on which report you read prices are either dropping or rising slower then inflation..

So lets wait and see at no risk

It's just that YOU will be priced out. Not that the maket can't afford it. You are a very small part of the market & if you haven't got the balls to buy, your landlord will for you. It is still YOU affording the market, only through an intermediary.

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I thought happiness was watching your kids eyes light up when they see 'their' room, not their 'rented room'.

That's nonsense. I grew up in prison service accommodation and I never felt that my room was any less than that.

We live in rented and we can decorate.My children feel quite secure and at home thankyou.

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It's just that YOU will be priced out. Not that the maket can't afford it. You are a very small part of the market & if you haven't got the balls to buy, your landlord will for you. It is still YOU affording the market, only through an intermediary.

If all this is so self evident to you, and makes such perfect logical sense, why would one need "balls to buy"? Saying that indicates that you (would like at least to) believe that there is some sort of risk involved, and only the bold will take it. If you are definitely right about buying property as being the obvious logical way forward with no downside, as you are suggesting, then there is no risk, and so logically, there is no need to have "balls" to get involved, since it is a sure bet. But then, I know logic isn't your strong suit. :P

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This short post is in response to all of the nonsense I have been reading here lately by a HUGE amount of bulls (even bears turned bulls) saying "The market's turning again where I am", "Your generation will be priced out for ever and you'll never own a home" blah blah blah.

Have you stopped to think for one second that perhaps some people are actually happy renting? Yes; H-A-P-P-Y. It's that emotion you feel when you can take your partner out for a nice romantic meal, it's watching your kid's eyes light up when you take him to the park at weekends to feed the ducks, it's sharing time with your elderly parents or grandparents. All these things are what make life special. Whether you rent or own a home, it acheives the same objective...a warm shelter with a roof to keep you dry. Happiness isn't a mortgage or a lease, and for those of you who appear to think it is, you have my sympathy.

Your lives must be pretty lonely if your hobby is to find internet sites where you can gloat over complete strangers how you own a home and they will never get the chance to do the same. Don't you have any real friends or family you could socialise with? I guess with an attitude like that I certainly wouldn't want you as a friend.

I think that genuine Bulls are made more than welcome here as they contribute a great deal to the discussions; smug and arrogant snakes however should be left to slither back into the holes they appeared from. If their real friends and family won't entertain them at weekends, why the hell should we get left with the job?

All snakes from here on in will be placed in my ignore list. If everyone else does the same and refuses to reply to their obnoxious posts, their topics will slide straight off the front page and into oblivion!

I was planning on taking a break from posting here, too many snakes, but I'd like to say that that was a 1st rate post. The question I've asked them is why post here? My only reasoning as to why the snakes (those that aren't employed by the VIs) are here is that they're at the fear/anger stage. Perhaps money is getting tight and they're no longer going out so come here and spit their venomus bile at us. If everything really is fine then why waste hours of your life here gloating or is it trying to convince yourself that everything is ok?

One suggestion for the mods, publish weekly stats on the most popular domains (bt.com, ntlworld.com, rightmove.co.uk) in terms of visits or posts per week (I'm sure there is some techie here that can give info on how to do it). This might at least help hpc'ers see if some VI's are actively bothering us.

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It's just that YOU will be priced out. Not that the maket can't afford it. You are a very small part of the market & if you haven't got the balls to buy, your landlord will for you. It is still YOU affording the market, only through an intermediary.

How does an economy function if workers cannot live in it?

Your arguments about never ending inflation beating growth are just b0ll0cks.

Exactly what kind of a future do you predict? One where ten people share every residential room in London?

How would that work? You couldn't even stock enough food in supermarkets for that kind of living density.

Your point of view is built on large gaps in knowledge. Recent leaps in UK property prices are on a knife edge sustainability limit. Prices can just about hold onto where they are now, but if anything rocks the boat they will correct downwards. Property is still fashionable that’s why we are talking about it. The reason the market has leveled off is because there's no room for it to climb higher, lenders cannot lend much higher multiples without exposing themselves to unnecessary risk.

You should cash out of property and wait for the next wave

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If all this is so self evident to you, and makes such perfect logical sense, why would one need "balls to buy"? Saying that indicates that you (would like at least to) believe that there is some sort of risk involved, and only the bold will take it. If you are definitely right about buying property as being the obvious logical way forward with no downside, as you are suggesting, then there is no risk, and so logically, there is no need to have "balls" to get involved, since it is a sure bet. But then, I know logic isn't your strong suit. :P

You have 2 options:

1/ Sign up for a mortgage. Low flexibility, high entry costs, a long term contract.

2/ Take a tenancy. High flexibility, low entry costs, a short term contract.

The balls bit comes in accepting the long term contract really, doesn't it? If you can't see past the next year, you're unlikely to have the nerve to take the option that has the most long term benefits for you, buying.

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Here's a novel way to protect your deposit:

Buy a property, the rampant inflation you speak of will mean your deposit grows along with the growth of the price of the property you buy.

You are quite right. If I thought we were going to have a period of (hyper) inflation then I'd borrow as much as I could and punt it into every tangable asset class I could.

What happens if the rampant deflation (as I speak of) happens.

Get as liquid as possible - Get cash (out of banks accounts) and Govn. bonds.

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You have 2 options:

1/ Sign up for a mortgage. Low flexibility, high entry costs, a long term contract.

2/ Take a tenancy. High flexibility, low entry costs, a short term contract.

The balls bit comes in accepting the long term contract really, doesn't it? If you can't see past the next year, you're unlikely to have the nerve to take the option that has the most long term benefits for you, buying.

There are 2 reasons why one might enter into an agreement of the type of option (1) above:

A/ Because one is able to see iwith total clarity into the future, using awesome powers of foresight, AND in doing so one sees that in fact that option is going to definitely deliver benefits above those of option (2).

B/ Because one is able to see some mirky picture of the future, with imperfect knowledge, based upon a mixture of hunches and educated guesses, and one decides that while option (1) may not definitely pay off better than option (2), and could in fact be a worse option, it nevertheless has the potential to pay out a large benefit, albeit that that is also offset by the possiblity of a large loss. Set against that is option (2) which, while it appears safer in the short term, has no obvious way of offering large benefits in the future. Weighing these up, one then decides that the possibility of large benefits outweighs the certainty of small benefits, albeit in the face of a risk of some size of potential loss. One is therefore taking a gamble. One might then be described as "having the balls" to take a risk of some unknown but non-zero size that one will actually lose out in the long term by choosing option (1), for the chance (high but not certain) that one will win out in the long run, for not having chosen option (2).

If the reason is (A) (which of course we know in reality is acutally impossible, because nobody can see the future for sure), then "balls" are not required. If on the other hand, the reason is (B), then "balls" are required, and the amount of balls rises with the potential risk of loss offsetting the potential gains.

That is my point: In a nutshell, only if you know that option 1 will DEFINITELY pay better returns than option 2 can it be said that there is no merit in option 2, and that it MIGHT turn out that those standing to gain less by doing option 2 actually gain more than those taking option 1. In such a case, "balls" would not be required, and so option 1 is the obvious no-brainer choice. If "balls" are required, then there is by implication some risk of loss to set against the potential larger gains of option (1).

So EITHER you are saying you are taking a risk by doing (1) which MIGHT mean you lose out, but MAY mean you win bigger gains, OR there is no risk in (1) and you by implication are saying that you can see the future with perfect clarity (i.e. you're lying).

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There are 2 reasons why one might enter into an agreement of the type of option (1) above:

A/ Because one is able to see iwith total clarity into the future, using awesome powers of foresight, AND in doing so one sees that in fact that option is going to definitely deliver benefits above those of option (2).

B/ Because one is able to see some mirky picture of the future, with imperfect knowledge, based upon a mixture of hunches and educated guesses, and one decides that while option (1) may not definitely pay off better than option (2), and could in fact be a worse option, it nevertheless has the potential to pay out a large benefit, albeit that that is also offset by the possiblity of a large loss. Set against that is option (2) which, while it appears safer in the short term, has no obvious way of offering large benefits in the future. Weighing these up, one then decides that the possibility of large benefits outweighs the certainty of small benefits, albeit in the face of a risk of some size of potential loss. One is therefore taking a gamble. One might then be described as "having the balls" to take a risk of some unknown but non-zero size that one will actually lose out in the long term by choosing option (1), for the chance (high but not certain) that one will win out in the long run, for not having chosen option (2).

If the reason is (A) (which of course we know in reality is acutally impossible, because nobody can see the future for sure), then "balls" are not required. If on the other hand, the reason is (B), then "balls" are required, and the amount of balls rises with the potential risk of loss offsetting the potential gains.

That is my point: In a nutshell, only if you know that option 1 will DEFINITELY pay better returns than option 2 can it be said that there is no merit in option 2, and that it MIGHT turn out that those standing to gain less by doing option 2 actually gain more than those taking option 1. In such a case, "balls" would not be required, and so option 1 is the obvious no-brainer choice. If "balls" are required, then there is by implication some risk of loss to set against the potential larger gains of option (1).

So EITHER you are saying you are taking a risk by doing (1) which MIGHT mean you lose out, but MAY mean you win bigger gains, OR there is no risk in (1) and you by implication are saying that you can see the future with perfect clarity (i.e. you're lying).

I can see the future. In the future, I will need a place to live, I won't want it to be at the mercy of a private landlord, I won't want it to be at the mercy of a social landlord, I will allow it to be at the mercy of the MPC though. In short, there is nothing I can do to relieve myself of my housing need. All I can do is make sure my housing need matches my financial ability to pay for it. I can see that the more I pay in my younger years, the less income I'll need in my older years to pay for it. If I rent instead, my income will need to rise year after year for me to afford to continue to rent. Buying is the only option for the future I can see.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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