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Rain'ard

What Happened To The Spring Bounce

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Well it’s nearly April, for sale boards are springing up like daffodils in my area and I was wondering what happened to the “Spring bounce” this year.

Are we having one or not? Is the housing market going so well that we don’t need one, it’s not necessary? Or was last year’s spring bounce such a flop that nobody dares to mention it.

Another thing wot bothers me is: If there are so many BTL’s around now. How can we have a sustained housing market if such people have bought for the long term?

So many bears now turning bull…. come on it’s still a bubble

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Guest wrongmove

I thinkk there will be a "Spring Bounce" based on the number of approvals for home purchase over the last few months (Feb figures are out on Wednesday).

In the meantime, we seem to be having a Winter Bounce:

_41415510_house_prices_mar06_gra203.gif

post-210-1143448396.gif

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I thinkk there will be a "Spring Bounce" based on the number of approvals for home purchase over the last few months (Feb figures are out on Wednesday).

In the meantime, we seem to be having a Winter Bounce:

_41415510_house_prices_mar06_gra203.gif

Seemed like the EA's got together at their Christmas do, and decided -come on chaps, -lets get this going again-

The new properties we coming on in January at inflated prices compared to those which had been on their books from months previous for comparible properties.

Its insteresting seeing those inflated asking prices now being reduced...

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In London it seems that there isn't a huge amount on the market, and the properties that do come on are going very quickly (weeks, as opposed to months not so long ago).

There is a spring bounce here, it's only to be expected. But spring is only another 2 months, then we are back to quiet times when the slide can resume.

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But where is Spring?

It's changed to daylight savings time now in Sweden, but it's snowing right now where I am which is very unusual. This is shaping up to be a strange year so far.

But IMO, once the boost from last Augusts rate cut has finally worn off, we'll be at a junction point where it can go either way, depending on the MPC's willingness to put forward another cut (or unwillingness, as the case may be).

In London it seems that there isn't a huge amount on the market, and the properties that do come on are going very quickly (weeks, as opposed to months not so long ago).

There is a spring bounce here, it's only to be expected. But spring is only another 2 months, then we are back to quiet times when the slide can resume.

Nice to catch this little slip from you STF. How about changing that sig then? Remember, Rightmove says Wandsworth up 8% YOY, so 500 to 600k should be added to my numbers please (after taking away the faulty LR figs you're quoting).

:D

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But where is Spring?

It's changed to daylight savings time now in Sweden, but it's snowing right now where I am which is very unusual. This is shaping up to be a strange year so far.

But IMO, once the boost from last Augusts rate cut has finally worn off, we'll be at a junction point where it can go either way, depending on the MPC's willingness to put forward another cut (or unwillingness, as the case may be).

JUeessssssuuuusss,

TTRTR is turning bear! Fair play to you old boy, must say you have been much better these days with less of the nasty goading, boasting etc, so I actually read your posts these days. :D

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JUeessssssuuuusss,

TTRTR is turning bear! Fair play to you old boy, must say you have been much better these days with less of the nasty goading, boasting etc, so I actually read your posts these days. :D

All these bears turned bull lately are ignoring the fact that the last 6 months is a result of Augusts rate cut & the media mentioning future rate cuts over & over. That's trailing off now & IMO the market is in momentum stage where a few last stragglers buy because they saw prices rise recently. But that'll die off too. Eventually the MPC may have to act again to push another cut through & generate a boost again.

I can't see that they'll have a choice with all of the recent talk of consumer spending not picking up. But that may change, who knows?

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TTRTR is "turning" too.

Intelligent warning from the Guy who has riden his favorite bull well

Sounds to me like TTRTR is desperate for a rate cut ...........

TTRTR Eventually the MPC may have to act again to push another cut through & generate a boost again.

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Sounds to me like TTRTR is desperate for a rate cut ...........

Yeah, I've ben waiting patiently for my honey, but all that pent-up demand seems to have affected things.

But I find it very amusing to watch the posts from the same bears who said that Augusts cut would have no impact and was simply a response to a failing economy, now capitulating at the point where it may turn bad again.

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Yeah, I've ben waiting patiently for my honey, but all that pent-up demand seems to have affected things.

But I find it very amusing to watch the posts from the same bears who said that Augusts cut would have no impact and was simply a response to a failing economy, now capitulating at the point where it may turn bad again.

You know what they say about the crash not happening until the last bear turns bull ;)

As far as I'm concerned though it's all going as I expected. The strains and imbalances that have built up in the economy are now coming to the fore and we are entering an environment where the house price bubble cannot survive for very much longer.

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they are not "ALL" capitulating. Only some

The banks are the villains in this piece. They failed to tighten. Loosened instead.

And they will pay for it in loan losses, heavy ones, I suspect

Not the big bears of course. The mini bears are turning.

You have to wonder if it's because they believe every word they read in the paper? Thinking out aloud: They came here last year from what they read, they're turning on what they're reading. But the reality must be that the newpapers report either on a time lag, or on pure speculation.

Currently reports seem to speculate that the events of the last 6-8 months will continue, but I'm waiting for things to turn bearish again - partly so I can get my rate cut. :)

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Please excuse my ignorance, but hasn't spring only just started? Wouldn't we have to wait quite a bit longer for a spring bounce? And in any case, aren't these 0.5% increases we're seeing reported on various indexes evidence of a bounce?

Billy Shears

Not the big bears of course. The mini bears are turning.

What is a big bear and what is a mini bear? Can you please explain?

Billy Shears

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Nice to catch this little slip from you STF. How about changing that sig then? Remember, Rightmove says Wandsworth up 8% YOY, so 500 to 600k should be added to my numbers please (after taking away the faulty LR figs you're quoting).

:D

Rightmove? very funny. Lets stick to factual data. :lol:

Currently reports seem to speculate that the events of the last 6-8 months will continue, but I'm waiting for things to turn bearish again - partly so I can get my rate cut. :)

Have you ever the seen the classic film "It's a Wonderful Life"? You seem to think that you have your own guardian angel at the BoE who will protect you from any harm. :P

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While checking out some local properties, I came across this beauty. I think TTRTR might be secretly liquidating his portfolio after the family of schizophrenic junkies stopped paying the rent.

Check out the last photo in particular:

SW11 house

whatever you say about Foxtons, they wouldn't publish a photo like that! :lol:

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While checking out some local properties, I came across this beauty. I think TTRTR might be secretly liquidating his portfolio after the family of schizophrenic junkies stopped paying the rent.

Check out the last photo in particular:

SW11 house

whatever you say about Foxtons, they wouldn't publish a photo like that! :lol:

The relationship between the landlord and the tenants must be pretty bad for them to refuse to tidy up a bit for the photos. Wonder what the worst thing tenants could do if they knew the agents were coming around to take photos. Dismantled motorcycle in the kitchen. Sexual aids in the bathroom? Triffidsin the garden? Charles Manson posters in the lounge?

Billy Shears

Edited by BillyShears

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While checking out some local properties, I came across this beauty. I think TTRTR might be secretly liquidating his portfolio after the family of schizophrenic junkies stopped paying the rent.

Check out the last photo in particular:

SW11 house

whatever you say about Foxtons, they wouldn't publish a photo like that! :lol:

It looks like an example where the tenants have been given notice and don't want to move out.

Edited by Given Up

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Please excuse my ignorance, but hasn't spring only just started? Wouldn't we have to wait quite a bit longer for a spring bounce? And in any case, aren't these 0.5% increases we're seeing reported on various indexes evidence of a bounce?

Billy Shears

What is a big bear and what is a mini bear? Can you please explain?

Billy Shears

Quite right Billy Shears spring has just started, but I should have made myself a bit clearer. I meant “Talk of a spring bounce”. Although people do queue up in December for the January Sales.

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While checking out some local properties, I came across this beauty. I think TTRTR might be secretly liquidating his portfolio after the family of schizophrenic junkies stopped paying the rent.

Check out the last photo in particular:

SW11 house

whatever you say about Foxtons, they wouldn't publish a photo like that! :lol:

Thanks. I'll be viewing that one Wednesday. You are truely a source of valuable information. 4 bed houses in that street these days are going for 500 +.

The relationship between the landlord and the tenants must be pretty bad for them to refuse to tidy up a bit for the photos. Wonder what the worst thing tenants could do if they knew the agents were coming around to take photos. Dismantled motorcycle in the kitchen. Sexual aids in the bathroom? Triffidsin the garden? Charles Manson posters in the lounge?

Billy Shears

It looks like an example where the tenants have been given notice and don't want to move out.

It is clearly a case of an elderly person moving out of their run down home, or possibly a deceased estate.

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Thanks. I'll be viewing that one Wednesday. You are truely a source of valuable information. 4 bed houses in that street these days are going for 500 +.

I thought you might say that! Enjoy. Let me know if you complete on this one and I will add it to the sig. :)

It is very cheap for SW11. Maybe prices have dropped while you were relaxing in Sweden? :lol:

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While checking out some local properties, I came across this beauty. I think TTRTR might be secretly liquidating his portfolio after the family of schizophrenic junkies stopped paying the rent.

Check out the last photo in particular:

SW11 house

whatever you say about Foxtons, they wouldn't publish a photo like that! :lol:

Not an uncommon ploy to get people to look at it and think "what a pile of crap: no one else will be interested but I can see the potential".

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The best / worse I have seen :lol: .

Thanks. I'll be viewing that one Wednesday. You are truely a source of valuable information. 4 bed houses in that street these days are going for 500 +.

It does sound particularly cheap, relatively speaking. You may have some competition TTRTR <_< .

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Given that the demographics of Property Buyers has changed significantly (e.g. all time low FTBs) then it wouldnt be that surprising if the timing of the "annual bounce" changed significantly. Investors/BTL are probably more willing to buy when they deem the time is right as opposed to when other factors dictate (i.e. X-mas, family, school/summer holidays, tradition, lore etc etc)

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How can the Halifax rates remain so persistently above Nationwide?

Quite a GAP must be arising in their Average price assessment

Also, why are the Halifax figures so smooth, where Nationwide is noisy. Seems like a bit of fiddling to me.

frugalista

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Intelligent warning from the Guy who has riden his favorite bull well

Makes a change from sheep I suppose. :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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