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pagaman

Here Is A Thought

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Just cycled through walton on thames.

I came across a HUGE, and I mean HUGE new build:

http://www.theheartofwalton.com

So thats an extra 279 1,2,3 bed appartments.

I guess buying 1,2,3 bed apartments now is a bad idea, seeing as the local market is about to get flooded.

This got me thinking.

While you can build a home, and sell it for a profit, builders will continue to build.

Is it possible we could be building our way into a crash?

1)BTL buy up spare capacity

2)FTBs priced out.

3)Builders build until we have more homes then people.

4)BTL still buy up property.

5)BTL can't get tennants. Property is empty.

6)BTL try to sell (intiate flood)

7)Crash

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We could build millions of houses, but if people lose well paid jobs offshore, to be replaced with dumbed down non jobs on minimum wage for graduates then nobody can afford them.

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Just cycled through walton on thames.

I came across a HUGE, and I mean HUGE new build:

http://www.theheartofwalton.com

So thats an extra 279 1,2,3 bed appartments.

I guess buying 1,2,3 bed apartments now is a bad idea, seeing as the local market is about to get flooded.

This got me thinking.

While you can build a home, and sell it for a profit, builders will continue to build.

Is it possible we could be building our way into a crash?

1)BTL buy up spare capacity

2)FTBs priced out.

3)Builders build until we have more homes then people.

4)BTL still buy up property.

5)BTL can't get tennants. Property is empty.

6)BTL try to sell (intiate flood)

7)Crash

I think the local markets for these places is already flooded. Have a look at the number of 5% deposit paid, stamp duty, guaranteed rental income, £99 and move in etc.

Of couse these don't go into Rightmove as price falls, but the reality is that the prices have already dropped 10%.

You left out a couple of steps:

3)Builders build until we have more homes then people.

3.1) Banks start to fret about the quality of their loans, and worry they may never see their money again.

4.1) Banks start calling in their loans. Developers have to start selling the places at discount.

4.2) Bad debts start to rise, and the banks stop lending.

4.3) Even stupid BTL investors can't get their hands on cash.

5.1) Interest rates rise as people desperately try to get their hands on money.

6.1) BTL find they can't sell. BTL fools go bankrupt.

6.2 Properties get sold at whatever people are prepared to pay at auction.

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...

6.2 Properties get sold at whatever people are prepared to pay at auction.

...

Just went to Tescos to get food before 4pm.

On the way in, Property that had been up for sale for a while now, now has an "auction" sign.... ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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