Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Guest consa

Robert Shiller, The Prophet Of House Prices

Recommended Posts

Guest consa

March 24, 2006 -- If a prophet is only as good as his last prophecy, then you'd be wise to listen to Robert Shiller. On "Nightline," Shiller offered his considerable analysis of the current real estate market … and he doesn't bring good news.

It was back in the heady stock market days of 1996 that Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, gave voice to his first prophecy. He warned that the stock market was overheating and that investment had risen to what he described as irrational levels. The stock market crash that followed was no surprise to Shiller and proved that he had called it right.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=1764935&page=1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

March 24, 2006 -- If a prophet is only as good as his last prophecy, then you'd be wise to listen to Robert Shiller. On "Nightline," Shiller offered his considerable analysis of the current real estate market … and he doesn't bring good news.

The problem here is that "a prophet is only as good as his last prophecy" is clearly something written by someone with a media background, rather than a statistics background.

I would say that a prophet is only as good as a statistically valid random (or exhaustive) sampling of his/her predictions are.

Billy Shears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say that he should be fired.

He has been saying this for the past five years.

For Christs sake, anyone can predict something inevitable if they dont put a datestamp on it.

I predict the end of the world,and the Labour Party losing the election one day. friggin Einstein Me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been subscribing to Bob Shillers newsletter and although he has been bearish on property in the US, he has not called a crash until his January 2006 newsletter.

When he calls it, he nails his colours to the mast. He predicted a US crash will happen mid to late 2006, so he can provably be wrong if it doesnt happen... but he seems to be right.

Interesting for the Gold bulls, he's not bullish for Gold and predicted (back in Autumn 05) that the dollar will remain strong.

His view is that although there are global and account imbalances, when push comes to shove, people around the world still trust the $ more than anything else... and the US still is the worlds largest economy.

His overall outlook/theory seems to be (pardon any inaccuracy on my part)

1) We are moving into a huge deflationary period

2) We are going to see a mild period of inflation prior to this

3) Deflation may be 'good' or 'bad' deflation (read his book for the details) and he has been hoping that it was going to be of the good type. In recent newsletters I distinctly get the feeling that he is tending towards the 'bad' version.

He says some interesting things. His view is that the Chinese economy is liable to go out of control. He pointed out that "it takes a lot of steel and cement factories to make all those steel and cement factories". This is tough enough to get right in a market economy, but one where the state is still so involved it seems like a tall order to call it right. Just look at what NuLab have done with the Health service and then imagine this 50 fold being applied to industrial development in China.

Boom and bust is kind of inevitable with financial "management" of this kind.

Edited by 2MeterBear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest horace

3) Deflation may be 'good' or 'bad' deflation (read his book for the details) and he has been hoping that it was going to be of the good type. In recent newsletters I distinctly get the feeling that he is tending towards the 'bad' version.

Very interesting post 2MeterBear.

Could you post a brief precise of `good`/`bad` deflation please?

h.

Edited by horace

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.