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laurejon

Halifax Bs

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Make of this what you wish, but I think you can safely say the crash is not here this year.

Property is selling like hot cakes.

UK house prices rise in February

9 March 2006

UK house prices increased by 1.4% in February, more than offsetting January's fall, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

The mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a slower housing market.

Annual house price inflation, at 5.5%, was broadly unchanged from December 2005 and January 2006.

UK house prices are forecast to rise by 3% in 2006, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation. The annual rate of house price inflation is, nonetheless, expected to increase over the next few months as modest price rises compare with slight falls in early 2005. The annual rate is then expected to fall as prices rise at a slower pace than in the second half of 2005.

Separate research released by Halifax today, based on the latest ONS data, shows that the cost of owning and running a house increased by 7% in the financial year 2004/05, more than three times the rate of CPI inflation.

Combined council tax and utility bills are estimated to represent the single biggest component of total housing costs in 2005/06, accounting for a higher proportion of the overall costs than mortgage payments.

London housing costs, at £8,133 per year, are the highest in the country. Costs in the capital are 63% above annual housing costs in the North East, the cheapest region where they are £4,990 per year. London's costs are 28% above the national average.

Commenting, Martin Ellis, Chief Economist, said: "House prices increased by 1.4% in February, more than offsetting January's fall. This mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a slower housing market.

The combination of improving economic growth, low interest rates and high employment will continue to underpin a healthy level of housing demand over the next few months.

A number of factors, however, should constrain housing demand and prevent a significant, and sustained, acceleration in house price inflation in 2006. The continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings will curb the ability of many potential first-time buyers to enter the market. Council tax and utility bills increases of well above inflation in 2006 will also put downward pressure on householders' finances. Additionally, the weakening in the labour market should temper housing demand."

Buyers' dominant position is loosening

The number of new buyer enquiries increased for the eighth successive month in January, according to the latest RICS survey. The stock of available property for sale also fell to a 15 month low, marking a continuing shift in the balance between buyers and sellers with buyers now in a less dominant position than during much of 2005.

The latest Bank of England figures show that the number of loans approved for house purchase was unchanged in January. The number of loans, at 122,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis, was 49% higher than in January 2005.

The improvement in activity is borne out by the experience of Halifax Estate Agents, which registered the fifth successive rise in completed sales on an annual basis in February.

Fundamentals are sound but labour market is softening

The latest ONS data confirmed that UK economic growth picked up to its highest rate for a year in 2005 Quarter 4 (to a quarterly rate of 0.6%). Significantly, growth in consumers' expenditure accelerated for the third successive quarter, although the quarterly rise of 0.7% was only around half the pace recorded during the first half of 2004.

There have been recent signs of a softening in labour market conditions reflecting the relative weakness of the economy over the past year or so. For example, the employment level, at 28.77 million, in the three months to December 2005 was 57,000 lower than in the preceding three months. The number of people in employment, however, remains close to its record high. It was 183,000 higher than a year earlier.

Affordability difficulties for first-time buyers, significant council and utility bill and weakening labour market conditions will constrain housing demand

The combination of improving economic growth, low interest rates and high employment will continue to underpin a healthy level of housing demand over the next few months.

A number of factors, however, should constrain housing demand and prevent a significant, and sustained, acceleration in house price inflation in 2006. The continuing high level of house prices in relation to earnings will curb the ability of many potential first-time buyers to enter the market. Council tax and utility bills increases of well above inflation in 2006 will also put downward pressure on householders' finances. Additionally, the weakening in the labour market should temper housing demand.

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The mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a slower housing market.

...

Affordability difficulties for first-time buyers, significant council and utility bill and weakening labour market conditions will constrain housing demand

Why are you reposting old articles?

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cool though..

being able to watch larger properties just not sell...

and new builds prices plummit..

Imagine what happens when the crash is amongst us ;)

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Make of this what you wish, but I think you can safely say the crash is not here this year.

Property is selling like hot cakes.

UK house prices rise in February

9 March 2006

UK house prices increased by 1.4% in February, more than offsetting January's fall, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

On what volumes?

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Laurejon, with respect this contributes very little. You are more informed than that. Selling like hot cakes? :blink: Punters playing hot potato at the top end more like. The hot cake comparison can only be levied once the latest land reg figures are available. <_<

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That is very true, and will balance the figures over a quarter.

January was slow, Feb picked up, March is busy, I suspect that April onwards will be busy months too.

The more the merrier in my book, I am itching for a crash just to see Tony and Gordons faces.

No more Boom to Bust.

Sorry Tony, when you are out of office you are a sitting duck. I am sure you will be off to the ICC when the next Government get in and investigate what you have been up to.

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That is very true, and will balance the figures over a quarter.

January was slow, Feb picked up, March is busy, I suspect that April onwards will be busy months too.

Do you work for the Land Registry or ODPM?

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That is very true, and will balance the figures over a quarter.

January was slow, Feb picked up, March is busy, I suspect that April onwards will be busy months too.

The more the merrier in my book, I am itching for a crash just to see Tony and Gordons faces.

No more Boom to Bust.

Sorry Tony, when you are out of office you are a sitting duck. I am sure you will be off to the ICC when the next Government get in and investigate what you have been up to.

If there is NO significant downward movement in price/volumes by May/start-Jun then there will be NO crash in 2006. Historically over 50% of annual HPI occurs in the months of Mar/Apr/May so care should be taken as to the conclusions drawn from recent (last 2 months) market activity.

It may be significant however that end-2005/start-2006 saw higher volume than normal at this time of the year. No idea if it was due to the end or start of a bull run. Opinion anyone?

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The drop in interest rates was taken as a signal of confirmation that they would not be going up.

I reckon that most people thought the next logical step would be to hike rates and stave off inflation.

Instead, the magic miracle shopping basket shed a few inflationary products and took on some "Made in China" wares.

Inflation is high, and we are going to see that in the Council Tax hikes, and public service costs.

The Government send out a clear signal......"Come on in, the waters lovely"

Edited by laurejon

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The drop in interest rates was taken as a signal of confirmation that they would not be going up.

I reckon that most people thought the next logical step would be to hike rates and stave off inflation.

Instead, the magic miracle shopping basket shed a few inflationary products and took on some "Made in China" wares.

It doesn't matter if you can cook the inflation books if people are simply running out of cash to spend.

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Make of this what you wish, but I think you can safely say the crash is not here this year.

Property is selling like hot cakes.

This is such a bunch of cr@p. It is total VI media domineering prostitution.

I keep an eye out in my region and there is sh!t on the market for very, very long periods of time, one property near my folks has been on the market two years. I also remember a TV national news broadcast doing a phone in and one woman was in tears because she couldn't sell her house. The spokespeople on the show were RICS and some other VI nobhead representing estate agency.

Listen here, THE GAME IS UP. Home prices and the general economy look for all the world like a train wreck. This train wreck has only just happened and right now the passengers are out cold... But one by one they are coming around and seeing what has happened. Very shorty the panic will ensue and the casualties will become evident.

It doesn't matter if you can cook the inflation books if people are simply running out of cash to spend.

No one is cooking the inflation books. Don't be narrow minded, look at the CPI, RPI, HPI, FTSE etc all together and you can see where all the credit is going. It isn't going into consumer items (CPI)... YET. No, it is going into asset bubbles and into willing foreign hands... FOR THE MOMENT.

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No one is cooking the inflation books. Don't be narrow minded, look at the CPI, RPI, HPI, FTSE etc all together and you can see where all the credit is going. It isn't going into consumer items (CPI)

Look at the things the CPI neglects to measure or allocates very low weightings, essential items like council tax, water, gas, electric and even the TV licence have been rising many times above official inflation.

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Look at the things the CPI neglects to measure or allocates very low weightings, essential items like council tax, water, gas, electric and even the TV licence have been rising many times above official inflation.

I understand the concerns over hedonistic practices but I think they do very little to hide the truth of where the money is going and I think the $70 oil price spike resulting in a sudden jump to CPI 2.5 last year pays tribute to this in that the index does indeed reflect everyday costs notwithstanding asset speculation.

I am still resolute that all this inflation is not yet feeding through to consumer pricing (YET). I don't know how many of you do the shopping but I do. I go with my wife each month to do our shop. I am amazed at how prices keep falling. ROLLBACK, BOGOF etc, etc. We eat fantastically well for a month for around ~£150 including household consumables.

We don't have much money (I am not working ATM) but we are out of debt and still manage a surplus of a few hundred quid. I count our blessings that we can manage very well. The times are a changing and so we save whatever we can.

Seriously guys, forget Subway meals and overpriced other UK services and look at real life support products, they are falling (along with rents :) ).

The two things that have struck me as amazing most recently are (I use our spermarket as an example) :-

ASDA now do 2 chickens for £4. Think about that in terms of how often most people got to eat meat in days of old.

Similarly, milk, flour, eggs, bacon, cheese, butter, sugar, salt, barley, cleanig products, all STUPIDLY CHEAP. Don't buy processed stuff as this incurs the expensive service infrastructure (and is a SERIOUS HEALTH RISK). Buy base ingredients and prepare your own food.

Look around you, this country is INCREDIBLY WEALTHY right now, cherish it and don't buy into obvious scams like the housing market.

I will shock you all now but I am amazed that the CPI is even positive.

Many in the US believe that N.America is the best place on earth. I disagree. It is the UK. It never gets hot enough to kill you and it never gets cold enough to kill you. There is plenty of water, there are no hurricanes or tsunamis. No other nation on earth stands a better chance given the myriad problems the world faces. Love it. Cherish it! Bless the UK. It's amazing.

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Many in the US believe that N.America is the best place on earth. I disagree. It is the UK. It never gets hot enough to kill you and it never gets cold enough to kill you. There is plenty of water, there are no hurricanes or tsunamis. No other nation on earth stands a better chance given the myriad problems the world faces. Love it. Cherish it! Bless the UK. It's amazing.

Plenty of water? not if you live in the South East :)

How long have you been working for them? :ph34r:

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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