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IMupNorth

There's A Clear Change Of Mood On Here

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Over the past month or so, there is a clear change of mood on this forum. There are alot of bears now questioning whether there will be a price crash or just realistically getting their heads round the fact that prices are most likely to stagnate for as far as anyone can sensibly forecast into the future.

Perhaps the debate will become more reasoned and adult.... but there again unlikely !

It seems that people are waking up to the fact that despite all the hype, there are fundamentals of the market at play and as Maggie said, you can't buck the market.

IRs are low and are going to stay that way.

Despite Realistbears mad ramblings, IRs in the UK are not going to rise sufficiently (if at all) to do any damage to the UK. I mean what if US rates go up another 0.5% - whats the UK going to do ? What if Japenese rates go up to 1% - whats the UK going to do ? What if the ECB raises rates by 0.5% - whats the UK going to do ?

The rate rises mentioned are the most anyone is predicting at the moment - the affect on the UK will be a great big fat zero !

I keep hearing that volumes on house sales are low - no there not - they are about average.

I keep hearing that the economys doing really badly - no its not - its expanding at about the average rate of 2.5%.

So all in all, things are going to be steady as she goes on the housing front.

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Over the past month or so, there is a clear change of mood on this forum. There are alot of bears now questioning whether there will be a price crash or just realistically getting their heads round the fact that prices are most likely to stagnate for as far as anyone can sensibly forecast into the future.

Perhaps the debate will become more reasoned and adult.... but there again unlikely !

It seems that people are waking up to the fact that despite all the hype, there are fundamentals of the market at play and as Maggie said, you can't buck the market.

IRs are low and are going to stay that way.

Despite Realistbears mad ramblings, IRs in the UK are not going to rise sufficiently (if at all) to do any damage to the UK. I mean what if US rates go up another 0.5% - whats the UK going to do ? What if Japenese rates go up to 1% - whats the UK going to do ? What if the ECB raises rates by 0.5% - whats the UK going to do ?

The rate rises mentioned are the most anyone is predicting at the moment - the affect on the UK will be a great big fat zero !

I keep hearing that volumes on house sales are low - no there not - they are about average.

I keep hearing that the economys doing really badly - no its not - its expanding at about the average rate of 2.5%.

So all in all, things are going to be steady as she goes on the housing front.

I cannot believe I wasted 10 seconds of my life reading that. :rolleyes:

EDIT: Which begs the question how long did you waste conceiving and writing it? :lol::P

Edited by shakerbaby

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I cannot believe I wasted 10 seconds of my life reading that. :rolleyes:

Mmmm, good point, why did I waste 2 minutes of my life writing to a bunch of soulless electronic bubble heads. Gave in to the addiction again.

Must go to bed, I've gone mad again. Wasting my life trying to educate people ..... learned along time ago it was pointless.

Night night.

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1. Economy’s screwed.

2. Job loses.

3. Bankruptcies increasing.

4. REAL inflation is not 2 £ucking %

5. Statistics (averages) lie.

6. LR in my area (individual prices) tell me they are going down.

7. lots and lots of other things too.

My mood has changed, I fear job loses will get worse, and that doesn't bring me

any comfort.

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Over the past month or so, there is a clear change of mood on this forum. There are alot of bears now questioning whether there will be a price crash or just realistically getting their heads round the fact that prices are most likely to stagnate for as far as anyone can sensibly forecast into the future.

My position hasn't changed one iota. I'm not buying.

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VI/gov spin etc has covered people eyes. They cannot see beyond it. People like feeling rich and that they have made the right choices and government like to help them think this. They will only realise the truth as it all collapses around them. Unless however the government etc can find ways to keep the lie going and prop everything up. This can't go on forever. The country is in debt up to the hilt. The longer it goes on for the more people will be suckered into it near to top and so the larger the fall.

I know it will take time to pan out and am still confident it will happen. In the meantime I continue to save.

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I reply with the original poster. House prices are going to keep on going up and up and up, they are never going to fall. Obviously this will lead to a one bed flat being worth half a million in the next few years, which no one will ever be able to afford. But this is clearly what is going to happen.

:rolleyes:

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Thats it I give up....

Houses are now the new Gold Standard, they are made of gold and built upon solid gold land, no matter where.

Their prices can only go up by at least three times the dodgy CPI Govt measure of inflation every single year without fail. Safe as houses in fact.....Bricks & Mortar me old Saan!!

This is the new Paridigm. I was wrong all other bears were wrong.

A whole country can produce next to no spare exportable GDP or Work and still have everyones pay packet increase to pay for the huge loans required to buy a new paridigm Shed in London.

TTRTR....I am deeply sorry for all the hurt I have caused you over the past two years...

Can anyone help me now get on the free magic HP ladder and suggest how I can take a 10K deposit and turn it into a million pounds a second FREE reward after I buy a crack hell hole in darkest dark cracksville today?

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So many quotables I dont even need to write me own posts anymore!

Over the past month or so, there is a clear change of mood on this forum. There are alot of bears now questioning whether there will be a price crash or just realistically getting their heads round the fact that prices are most likely to stagnate for as far as anyone can sensibly forecast into the future.

He is right. A lot of the bears have "turned" lately.

Makes me suspicious to be honest.

But I figured on stagnation months ago.

I however believe that "stagnation" is code for a buyers market.

Those poor EAs up north in my area are resisting soo hard.

Still huge selection of overpriced houses on the market.

4 out of my top 5 will be on the market for over a year in May. Im so excited!!! An anniversary!!! I do like a good party and I still have my cash working away for me.

My position hasn't changed one iota. I'm not buying.

I know it will take time to pan out and am still confident it will happen. In the meantime I continue to save.

I dont. I know where you are coming from. :lol::D

IMupNorth too. House prices are dropping where we're looking.

Still if the old bears are crumbling, their ranks are being quickly filled by the above.

Ten'hut!

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I'm a bear but I'm crumbling!...........to the point where i see 8-10 years of stagnation (20% drop in real terms) followed by another boom........I previously thought there'd be a meltdown.

.......Some properties are overpriced but that's always been the case..........

I don't think I'll post again and in case you're wondering bearing in mind the time (0400h) I'm stone cold sober...I'll keep looking in especially late at night when Fred and Laurejon are usually around.......For all our sakes and in the interests of social harmony and justice and lots else i sincerely hope it crashes but i don't think it will........so make sure you buy in the next 8 years.

signing off M

Edited by Michael

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I'm a bear but I'm crumbling!...........to the point where i see 8-10 years of stagnation (20% drop in real terms) followed by another boom........I previously thought there'd be a meltdown.

signing off M

Look at the bigger picture. I see monumental amounts of debt, IR's which will have to eventually go UP. Many Houses that have been on the market for over a year.

Most importantly the approvals figures for last month were very weak -high approvals lead to HPI - with the current oversupply these low approval figures (if they continue) suggest falls to come. Until that I was worried. No longer.

All of the impatient bears have bought already. Who does that leave? Just the priced out. The greed of the BTLer's is slowly being replaced by fear - fear that their property wont rise in value , fear that they wont be able to cover the mortgage with the rent and fear that they are missing out on a booming stock-market.

My wife's friends up north have been trying to sell their property for over a year - took it off the market over Christmas - put it back on a month ago. Not one viewer. Drop the price you say - they can't as they want to move up the chain. This will only be possible when the people up the chain drop their prices. These things take time.

Unfortunately I do think we are heading for a depression the likes of which hasn't been seen since the 1930's. I think in the UK with the independant central bank there will be serious deflation (in the US they can print money more easily - so there will be hyperinflation). I seen nominal falls of 40%.

Edited by alexays

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As an exporter I am happy either way, either interest rates rise and house prices crash or the pound falls and I get more money for what I sell. There really istn't a middle road.

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Well I must be a very strange person, because for years I have been posting as a bull and I was right.

People have simply made a truck load of cash out of property over the past 8yrs.

However, the economics are now showing saturation in terms of debts and in terms of public spending. We are up against the wall in terms of economic performance. The books for UK PLC make grim reading.

Despite repeated attempts by the Government to create an economy, it is failing. Employing Public Servants in the vain hope that it will filter into the wider private economy is a failed concept and can only be financed by increasing the tax take from the ever dwindling population who are earning real money, not tax take money.

So in a nutshell, the end is very near.

My advice to a bear today who has lost his nerve is to sit down and create a huge spreadsheet with the household budget in it.

Calculate the repayments of the mortgage at 4.5%, but also allow for above inflation council taxes, personal taxes, and NI Contributions. I think the next few years are going to be a roller coaster ride with regard to inflation. Oil is going to be the biggy here, and if you think 60Dollars a Barrel is top dollar think again.

I suspect that in a years time we will see oil at 130Dollars a barrel and that will have a direct impact not only on the UK inflation figures but indeed the entire world.

Bears hold your nerve, you have lost out for sure in the past but the payday is fast approaching and that is a fact. Do not get suckered into the crowd. Getting on with your life is one thing, but getting on with your life to be a slave to the bank is something completely different.

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Why would oil rocket up to $130/barrel when US stocks are very healthy and even OPEC are forecasting a fall in demand? I can see why oil would creep up due to China/India but I suspect the oil mania is getting ahead of itself a bit.

There's no shortage of oil, refining capacity maybe, but like gold most of what I see is hype. Also, you have to consider that energy costs may be more deflationary than inflationary.

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Like housing Oil is a finite resource.

Oil extraction is becoming more and more difficult as each month goes by. Technology has enable oil extraction to be more productive, but at a cost.

As we spend more and more time scratching around for oil it will become more and more expensive.

There is not an abundance of oil, Politics, Logistics, and scarceity are all going to force up the price. The emerging economies are using Oil like nobodies business, they laugh at Kyoto for the joke it is. They are on a mission to build a powerfull economy just like we did and Oil is the single most important factor to enable the transition.

Oil demand will continue at exponential rates, the only factor that could possibly subdue that demand would be the removal of the emerging economies from the equation and that is never going to happen.

The race is on, and the winner will be whoever has their hands around the necks of an oil producing nation.

It is no coincidence that the US is so focussed on the future of oil, dont for one minute fall for the spin. A dying man will say anything to live for another day.

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Yes there has been a change of mood here, there has also been a massive influx of 'bulls', 'trolls', 'estate agents' recently, it has become more antagonistic because the trolling of these people (which I think has driven some people away).

The question you have ask is why so many 'bulls', 'trolls', 'EAs'? Why? If everything is fine in housing why visit here and troll (appologies to the few bulls that provide a quality debate)? I'm sure in 2002/2003 such people would never even of thought about bothering this site, so why bother the site now? Is it fear, YoY HPI has dropped from ~20% to ~4.5%, a 75% fall?

Edited by mustrum_ridcully

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Why would oil rocket up to $130/barrel when US stocks are very healthy and even OPEC are forecasting a fall in demand? I can see why oil would creep up due to China/India but I suspect the oil mania is getting ahead of itself a bit.

I think you've answered a lot of questions there without realising it.

OPEC, which has a vested interest in HIGHER oil prices, thinks demand will fall. And it's well established that the level of oil demand directly correlates to the world economy. Either OPEC is trying to talk the market down (why? To hide lack of spare capacity seems the only logical explanation) or they genuinely see economic trouble ahead.

Falling oil demand might be good for resource conservation and the environment and needs to happen in the longer term, but with the present world energy system it's anything but a sign of a strong economy.

I agree that oil prices could well fall but my point is the reason for that. It's not a sign of a booming or even stable economy worldwide unless there's an abnormally warm winter, sudden outbreak of world peace etc. to explain it. It's hard to believe that OPEC would be basing its predictions on forecasts of what the weather will be like in 12 months time.

OPEC isn't exactly the leading world authority on the weather and, at least according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, it's not possible to make such predictions this far out with useful accuracy. Even rainfall, a big issue in a dry country such as Australia, can only be assessed in terms of probabilty (eg the odds favour it being dry but that doesn't preclude a flood) and then only for the next few months.

So my bet is that OPEC is either making its statements about demand to try and influence the market rather than genuinely predicting it or is simply hoping for peace in its member countries, neither of which are by any means certain.

As for house prices, they're clearly falling where I am (Hobart, Australia) so that's all I really need to know. Interestingly, it's the bottom end of the market which seems to be giving way first with the upper end still doign OK.

Edited by Smurf1976

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laurejon,

I agree with a large amount you are saying. However, look at the data;

DOE

Oil inventories are rising! My concern is that the drivers for higher prices at the moment are fear, i.e. attacks on oil installtions, manipulation from OPEC etc.

I'm scratching my head at it, but will probably end up jumping on the band wagon when the hurricane season gets in full swing.

:blink:

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I dont know how old you are but it was not that long ago we had oil rationing in the UK.

Under a Labour Government I hasten to add.

Take a look at the US, for the past five years they have been stockpiling Oil. They have not been going through this very costly process for nothing.

Nobody who wants something so badly is going to tell the world such. They are going to secretly squirell away to make sure that the oil when it runs dry is in their grips. Now the US cannot possibly store all of the oil, so it is now making big headway in Africa to secure future reserves.

I am no expert, however I do have a friend who has traded Oil for 25yrs.

The analysts all have different views, but his view is that we have reached a point whereby we will in the next five years be running out as it will be physically impossible to pump as fast as demand. If he is right, and he has been so far (He is Fking loaded). His prediction is 100 per barrel, my prediction is based on the fact that I am the most pessimistic person on the earth today. :D

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Well I must be a very strange person, because for years I have been posting as a bull and I was right.

People have simply made a truck load of cash out of property over the past 8yrs.

However, the economics are now showing saturation in terms of debts and in terms of public spending. We are up against the wall in terms of economic performance. The books for UK PLC make grim reading.

Despite repeated attempts by the Government to create an economy, it is failing. Employing Public Servants in the vain hope that it will filter into the wider private economy is a failed concept and can only be financed by increasing the tax take from the ever dwindling population who are earning real money, not tax take money.

So in a nutshell, the end is very near.

My advice to a bear today who has lost his nerve is to sit down and create a huge spreadsheet with the household budget in it.

Calculate the repayments of the mortgage at 4.5%, but also allow for above inflation council taxes, personal taxes, and NI Contributions. I think the next few years are going to be a roller coaster ride with regard to inflation. Oil is going to be the biggy here, and if you think 60Dollars a Barrel is top dollar think again.

I suspect that in a years time we will see oil at 130Dollars a barrel and that will have a direct impact not only on the UK inflation figures but indeed the entire world.

Bears hold your nerve, you have lost out for sure in the past but the payday is fast approaching and that is a fact. Do not get suckered into the crowd. Getting on with your life is one thing, but getting on with your life to be a slave to the bank is something completely different.

Assuming we head for higher inflation (and higher rates) in the next few years then what is your argument against buying today at 4.7% IR fixed for 10 years?

Inflation will be on your side then as you will be insulated from higher rates for 10 years.

You will have 10 years of wage inflation to help you erode the debt.

House prices would not fall much in nominal terms (£££) if we entered a high inflation environment.

(look back to the 1970s to see an example of this)

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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When the last bear turns bullish then the house price crash is about to start. The growing number of doubters on here is encouraging! I'mUpNorth is wrong on his bullish assessment of the UK. If housing tunrover is about average then house prices will as likely fall to the average. With FTBers at only a few percent then prices can not stay at this level for ever.

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Assuming we head for higher inflation (and higher rates) in the next few years then what is your argument against buying today at 4.7% IR fixed for 10 years?

Inflation will be on your side then as you will be insulated from higher rates for 10 years.

You will have 10 years of wage inflation to help you erode the debt.

House prices would not fall much in nominal terms (£££) if we entered a high inflation environment.

(look back to the 1970s to see an example of this)

The problem is simply this.

We know for a fact that as sure as eggs are eggs there will be a recession. The problem is when.

So if we all agree that a recession is impending and has been since we excited the last one we must now think to ourselves what will constitute a recession in the future.

Well it is simply the use of interest rates to counter inflation. Inflation is not a problem when you can offshore your jobs, import your goods, and generally do anything and everything to counter it. But most normal thinking people would soon realise there is a tradeoff for doing this. And the trade off is a reduction of revenue to spend in public services as the tax take reduces. To counter the effects of the reduction of tax take tax has to go up. But as tax goes up business in the UK becomes more expensive, so more is offshored. Obviously there are balances of managing inflation, and depressing the labour markets at the expence of a smaller tax take that has to be topped up by tax rises.

So..........we are heading down a road to something that is plainly inevitable. And that is a recession, a change of Government, and a completely different outlook on employment. Unemployment is the price we will have to pay very shortly, and that simply means this.

Your low interest rate of 4.75% fixed will mean nothing if you dont have a secure job paying enough to service it. If taxes go up, cost of goods go up, and wages depress, and job prospects diminish, then to own a house with a huge mortgage albeit fixed will be a millstone around the neck of an unwitting passenger on the Sinking UK PLC

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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