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Unexpected

Crash Definately Underway.

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How long before we get news like this?

"The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose by 4.4 percent to a record 548,000, representing a 6.3-month supply of houses at the February sales pace. That is the largest monthly supply figure since January 1996."

"The median sales price for a new house fell by 2.9 percent year over year to 230,400 dollars in February, the department also said."

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/24032006/323/new-h...-5-percent.html

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So where have the prices dropped – like in a crash where actual prices are reduced?

To me you seem to be describing excess properties coming on to the market – this might cause a crash

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So where have the prices dropped – like in a crash where actual prices are reduced?

To me you seem to be describing excess properties coming on to the market – this might cause a crash

"The median sales price for a new house fell by 2.9 percent year over year to 230,400 dollars in February, the department also said."

This implies to me that prices of new houses fell by 2.9% in February which is a very large drop IMO.

If you read it the other way and the article is saying that prices have fallen to -2.9% yoy then this is also a massive fall considering that prices were well positive only a few months ago.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

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"The median sales price for a new house fell by 2.9 percent year over year to 230,400 dollars in February, the department also said."

This implies to me that prices of new houses fell by 2.9% in February which is a very large drop IMO.

If you read it the other way and the article is saying that prices have fallen to -2.9% yoy then this is also a massive fall considering that prices were well positive only a few months ago.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Don't these stats just apply to as yet unsold new builds?

What are the stats for house prices in general?

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"The median sales price for a new house fell by 2.9 percent year over year to 230,400 dollars in February, the department also said."

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Yep aright I didn’t actual read the article although I am not one to trust the “median sales price” compared to average price –

Also just because new prices are lower this does not mean that there is a HPC in the US – it just means that the builders are having a hard time (big surprise).

Personally I think that Sine270 is being premature and next year he can confidently say that the crash has begun in the US

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Read the article posted by BTB...

Whichever way you look at it, the stats are pretty startling and for once, do not require any bearish spin...

Sorry, this bit spoils the party for me...

Part of the softness in prices could stem from a jump in the number of new homes on the market -- 544,000 new homes were up for sale last month, up about 24 percent from a year earlier.

So supply has jumped 24% YOY but prices have only softened 3% YOY.

Also

A separate report from the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed an unexpected gain in the sales of existing homes in February.

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Yep aright I didn’t actual read the article although I am not one to trust the “median sales price” compared to average price –

Really?

The long debate about Rightmove and their dubious stats would probably never have arisen if they had quoted the median instead of the mean. The mean draws people into subjective decisions about outliers and biases in the sample, and that makes it easy to manipulate.

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Why do I get the distinct feeling that there's a particular poster on here who wishes to talk up the American market and talk down the British one?

Now you just sound paranoid.

(sshhh! it's all a conspiracy, don't you know...)

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Sorry, this bit spoils the party for me...

So supply has jumped 24% YOY but prices have only softened 3% YOY.

Also

Keep in mind while YOY is only 2.9% it's off 5.5% from October 2005. Down 4 months in a row. Or at the rate over the past 4 months 16.5% a year (5.5x3)

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1764110

"[The figures] fell in the largest markets, and where they fell, the bottom dropped out," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics, in a prepared statement. "In the West, sales plunged by 29.4 percent, a figure so large it is hard to believe. In the South, sales fell by 6.4 percent. These are the two biggest markets."

What's really worrisome to most housing industry analysts is that inventories of new homes for sale are at their highest point since January 1996. Today's report shows that builders could fill orders for new homes for 6.3 months without hammering another nail.

I'm really suprisied to see the south fall. After Kitrina I figured the south would carry the country.

Edited by Karen

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What we are seeing now is a huge build-up of inventories.

Once people start to realise that prices are falling and the denial goes, we will see the transaction volumes pick up.

That will mean sellers are capitulating, and deciding to get out before others.

The famous rush for the exit.

That's when it get's messy, and the States is quite close to that now.

England still looks like it may have a while to go yet.

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What we are seeing now is a huge build-up of inventories.

Once people start to realise that prices are falling and the denial goes, we will see the transaction volumes pick up.

That will mean sellers are capitulating, and deciding to get out before others.

The famous rush for the exit.

That's when it get's messy, and the States is quite close to that now.

England still looks like it may have a while to go yet.

Yes, its almost as if the Americans are better at accepting the inevitable than the British.

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Yep aright I didn’t actual read the article although I am not one to trust the “median sales price” compared to average price –

Also just because new prices are lower this does not mean that there is a HPC in the US – it just means that the builders are having a hard time (big surprise).

Personally I think that Sine270 is being premature and next year he can confidently say that the crash has begun in the US

Mean prices are coming down at about the same rate as median prices. (The US mean is about 30% higher than the median.)

I disagree with your timing. I think the crunch point for the US will come in June or July, but there might be some dramatic headlines next month due to seasonal adjustment factors.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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