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RichM

This Site - Give Up And Go Home?

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A HPC can only happen after property has boomed. The boom creates the crash. No boom, no crash. By definition, if it booms, it crashes.

Property is still going up at a rate faster than inflation, if some of the latest stats are to be believed, i.e. the market is still booming.

The site is still reporting HPI, though we with some scepticism about the stats presented by some groups.

Is this site now all about the failure to see a crash? Have we got it wrong, and are in a new era?

No. If anything, some of us (not me) have wanted this state of affairs, on the basis that the bigger the boom, the bigger the crash.

I am up for debate. I want to be open minded. If people want to come on here and argue sensibly that at some point soon I should buy, then great, go for it. If this is a new era, where hosue prices have readjusted to much higher multiples than in previous generations, then great. Sgow me with evidence. You'll have to do more than say "IRs are low" - that is a recent phenomena. I want more, but am happy to see any good evidence.

But the main bull argument on here at present seems to be "you're wrong, it's still going up, get lost losers, look at all my BTLs that I am giving interest to the banks over". That's not an argument. That's just saying, in a fairly smug way, the market is still booming. And a booming market is still a market that will crash.

I have no seen a decent argument to counter the suggestion that the present housing boom is to do with cheap money and a bubble mentality. I'd love to see it. If I am wrong great.

I agree that bears need to avoid the ad hominems, but unless bulls can give a coherent, economically adroit argument, then they have nothing to say.

I guess that introducing "report" buttons on threads would be pants. But if bulls come on here with the only motive of showing off their property wealth and saying "ner ner ner it's still going up" then they're should be treated like the trolls they are.

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Never.

Thats what they want. What else would they be doing here? I'm not gonna commit to a life of slavery yet while it is more expensive to buy than rent. And where better to learn about sceptical economics even if it is by repitition? No. I'm gonna hang about. Have you seen some of those other places?

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I have suspicions that we are under a prolonged troll attack.

Aside from that I dont want a huge boom and bust. 10-15% from here would suit me fine.

People should also be aware that a HPC willl occur triggered by any or all of the following

- Escalating energy prices

- Rising interest rates

- credit contraction

- increased unemployment (even the NHS are letting people go!!!!)

- Fiddled CPI / HPI figures

- Pensions shortfall

But -

It will not happen in one day.

It will not last for only one day.

It will not happen uniformly nice and obviously and equally across the country.

It will gradually unwind and have knock-on effects throughout the country and economy.

It has alread started.

Anyone who comes on here with their "yaa boo you got it wrong" attitute is a fu*kin mug; plain and simple.

Even the most bullish of bulls know this.

Nobody on this site believes things will continue for much longer - no matter what they say - the smart ones are talking it up to allow themselves more time to get out.....wait and see. eh TTRTR? ;)

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Didnt we all know about the spring bounce? That the market will rise on its downward trend occassionaly? Wernt we just a few months ago saying that a spring bounce looks very likely (although a short one)?

Going back just 8 weeks people we're positive the market will crash whats changed? Economically what has changed? Rate cuts - i havnt heard of any? New fangled schemes we wern't aware of - i havnt heard of any?

Can i afford an average property on my above average wage - nope.

In a few weeks time when the bearish news starts to come through again bear/bulls will turn bear again.

Im actually quite liking it because it shows me how feable minded alot of people are, how much they will just believe any hype because they want to and do not rely on information.

Each to thier own but personally i think its ticking along nicely.

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I think that the majority of the populus are very narrow-minded and short-sighted. There are properties out there that I could afford TODAY at TODAYS IR's.

There are NONE that I would consider buying for a few reasons.

I am now 38. I cant just get on the ladder becuase I will never move UP the ladder. So what I buy I DIE IN! I want a home that I can honestly say I would feel safe in. My family would feel safe in. IS THIS TOO MUCH TO ASK?

The houses that interest me are all asking prices of £160>220K. Yes they are more-or-less the same house but the ones that are 160-180 need modernisation :blink:

I CANNOT physically get the money to buy one. Even if I could get the money at TODAYS IR's then I would struggle. GB has made it quite clear that he WILL keep IR's LOW. He has also said that WAGE INFLATION will stay low. We all know that that 2>2.5% pay rise is NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH to cover the rising costs of running a home. So each year we are getting poorer.

Whose to say that Labout will be in power for the 25 year term of my mortgage?? Conservative might come in and up IR's to combat the importing of inflation???

The simple fact is this. Whether houses are too expensive or not are a matter of opinion. Whether its a good time to buy TODAY is a NO-BRAINER!!!!

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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This is just "there has been no crash yet therefore there will never be a crash." Since the majority of the population appears to believe that, I don't think we need to theorise that anyone prosyleting that view on HPC is a troll. It's just the other side of the coin from the equally silly "there will a crash next week, guaranteed." There's still lots of productive middle ground between the two extremes.

Billy Shears

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A HPC can only happen after property has boomed. The boom creates the crash. No boom, no crash. By definition, if it booms, it crashes.

Property is still going up at a rate faster than inflation, if some of the latest stats are to be believed, i.e. the market is still booming.

The site is still reporting HPI, though we with some scepticism about the stats presented by some groups.

Is this site now all about the failure to see a crash? Have we got it wrong, and are in a new era?

No. If anything, some of us (not me) have wanted this state of affairs, on the basis that the bigger the boom, the bigger the crash.

I am up for debate. I want to be open minded. If people want to come on here and argue sensibly that at some point soon I should buy, then great, go for it. If this is a new era, where hosue prices have readjusted to much higher multiples than in previous generations, then great. Sgow me with evidence. You'll have to do more than say "IRs are low" - that is a recent phenomena. I want more, but am happy to see any good evidence.

But the main bull argument on here at present seems to be "you're wrong, it's still going up, get lost losers, look at all my BTLs that I am giving interest to the banks over". That's not an argument. That's just saying, in a fairly smug way, the market is still booming. And a booming market is still a market that will crash.

I have no seen a decent argument to counter the suggestion that the present housing boom is to do with cheap money and a bubble mentality. I'd love to see it. If I am wrong great.

I agree that bears need to avoid the ad hominems, but unless bulls can give a coherent, economically adroit argument, then they have nothing to say.

I guess that introducing "report" buttons on threads would be pants. But if bulls come on here with the only motive of showing off their property wealth and saying "ner ner ner it's still going up" then they're should be treated like the trolls they are.

People will all have their own ideas about what a forum like this is for, but here's my view of what it is for:

It is for gathering information about what is happening, and putting up theories of what might happen next. For me, that's all it's for. It is not a campaign. It does not have a goal. It is not trying to actually change anything. For me, such notions would be ridiculous, and would involve ideas of influence way beyond what is sensible.

So, what exactly is there to "give up on"? Let's just keep posting information and theories, and having debates. If the theories favoured by the site turn out to be wrong, so what? I'd say that is interesting in itself.

I don't understand the way some people on here seem to have such an emotional investment in one particular outcome for the housing market and the economy. Why? There's nothing anyone on here, or possibly in the world, can do about these things. Tying one's personal happiness into a particular outcome, and getting some strange notion that by shouting about it on here for long enough it might actually be made to happen is just madness in my opinion, and also the road to unhappiness.

Why not just think of HPI as being like some aspect of physics - it's not possible to change the laws, but it is interesting and instructive to make measurements, report and gather results, look for trends, construct and test theories.

I couldn't give a hoot about being wrong about any particular pet theory I have, unless I'm being paid to get it right. Apart from when I'm being paid to have a theory about some matter, then I class it as a hobby. Hobbies are supposed to be fun. The important thing is then not to be right, but to learn more. Being wrong is one of the best ways to increase understanding of something.

By the way, I'm not saying here one way or the other that I think the notion of HPC is right or wrong, I'm just saying that this forum, in my opinion, is a good place for gathering information, theories and views, and having a bit of a debate and a laugh. It isn't about something that anyone is trying to achieve, and so in that sense, there is nothing to "give up and go home" about.

Cheers.

Edited by Levy process

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I think that the majority of the populus are very narrow-minded and short-sighted. There are properties out there that I could afford TODAY at TODAYS IR's.

There are NONE that I would consider buying for a few reasons.

I am now 38. I cant just get on the ladder becuase I will never move UP the ladder. So what I buy I DIE IN! I want a home that I can honestly say I would feel safe in. My family would feel safe in. IS THIS TOO MUCH TO ASK?

The houses that interest me are all asking prices of £160>220K. Yes they are more-or-less the same house but the ones that are 160-180 need modernisation :blink:

I CANNOT physically get the money to buy one. Even if I could get the money at TODAYS IR's then I would struggle. GB has made it quite clear that he WILL keep IR's LOW. He has also said that WAGE INFLATION will stay low. We all know that that 2>2.5% pay rise is NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH to cover the rising costs of running a home. So each year we are getting poorer.

Whose to say that Labout will be in power for the 25 year term of my mortgage?? Conservative might come in and up IR's to combat the importing of inflation???

The simple fact is this. Whether houses are too expensive or not are a matter of opinion. Whether its a good time to buy TODAY is a NO-BRAINER!!!!

TB

My thoughts exactly. You need to save some money for a new striker anyway :lol:

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I think that the majority of the populus are very narrow-minded and short-sighted. There are properties out there that I could afford TODAY at TODAYS IR's.

There are NONE that I would consider buying for a few reasons.

I am now 38. I cant just get on the ladder becuase I will never move UP the ladder. So what I buy I DIE IN! I want a home that I can honestly say I would feel safe in. My family would feel safe in. IS THIS TOO MUCH TO ASK?

The houses that interest me are all asking prices of £160>220K. Yes they are more-or-less the same house but the ones that are 160-180 need modernisation

I CANNOT physically get the money to buy one. Even if I could get the money at TODAYS IR's then I would struggle. GB has made it quite clear that he WILL keep IR's LOW. He has also said that WAGE INFLATION will stay low. We all know that that 2>2.5% pay rise is NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH to cover the rising costs of running a home. So each year we are getting poorer.

Whose to say that Labout will be in power for the 25 year term of my mortgage?? Conservative might come in and up IR's to combat the importing of inflation???

The simple fact is this. Whether houses are too expensive or not are a matter of opinion. Whether its a good time to buy TODAY is a NO-BRAINER!!!!

TB

At 38 when would have been a good time?.

Why didnt you buy in 1998 or even 1995?.

I think many people didnt buy during those years because they thought property was a bad investment and thought it would go down again.

So in reality a lot of people in your age group are there without a home because they think too much.

Nothing in life is certain, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and take the plunge.

That said, today is certainly not the time to be buying a house. Anyone who buys today is funding tommorows FTB'ers with a cheap property.

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I think the current housing market is like a shark, it has to keep moving forward or it dies. For the last 7 or-so years, you could be almost guaranteed that by the time the ink was dry on the contract the house in question was 'worth' a few grand more, so people did not mind paying ever-rising prices.

Exactly the opposite is about to come into effect. If prices are stagnant or dropping, buyers will want a 'buffer' so they are not going to lose too much in a drop, or stay at the stagnation point. So rather than buyers chasing the vendors price up, the vendors will have to chase the buyers offer down. Or not sell.

That is the sort of decision-making process typical home buyers engage in. Macroeconomic theory has nothing to do with whether they want to buy or not; it is more about the perceived immediate gain or loss.

Edited by tahoma

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Why didnt you buy in 1998 or even 1995?.

Ah, the caring voice of the smug BTL parasite. Let me think now... er PERHAPS PEOPELE HAD REASONS THAT STOPPED THEM FROM BUYING, YOU RETARD?

I dunno. Thick as pigsh!t.

And btw, there is no such thing as free money therefore the market must crash

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At 38 when would have been a good time?.

Why didnt you buy in 1998 or even 1995?.

I think many people didnt buy during those years because they thought property was a bad investment and thought it would go down again.

So in reality a lot of people in your age group are there without a home because they think too much.

Nothing in life is certain, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and take the plunge.

That said, today is certainly not the time to be buying a house. Anyone who buys today is funding tommorows FTB'ers with a cheap property.

Agree

One of the groups which gets a lot of flak on here are those who bought property 10 years ago, or rather bought more than one property. Quite a few managed to buy a second propety by mortgaging their own home. At the time it was considered a risk as property was not seen as a good investment. Yes of course with hindsight it was a good time to buy but at the time it wasn't seen as a good idea.

The people who bought then were taking a risk and it paid off. It's unfair but that is what happens. You could argue that it's unfair that someone like Alan Sugar has made a fortune without going to uni when other people who worked hard and are now saddled with student debt have done less well.

Life is not fair, it never has been and it never will be, You just have to try and give it your best shot.

Ah, the caring voice of the smug BTL parasite. Let me think now... er PERHAPS PEOPELE HAD REASONS THAT STOPPED THEM FROM BUYING, YOU RETARD?

I dunno. Thick as pigsh!t.

And btw, there is no such thing as free money therefore the market must crash

? Broken up early or just playing truant today?

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A HPC can only happen after property has boomed. The boom creates the crash. No boom, no crash. By definition, if it booms, it crashes.

Property is still going up at a rate faster than inflation, if some of the latest stats are to be believed, i.e. the market is still booming.

The site is still reporting HPI, though we with some scepticism about the stats presented by some groups.

Is this site now all about the failure to see a crash? Have we got it wrong, and are in a new era?

No. If anything, some of us (not me) have wanted this state of affairs, on the basis that the bigger the boom, the bigger the crash.

I am up for debate. I want to be open minded. If people want to come on here and argue sensibly that at some point soon I should buy, then great, go for it. If this is a new era, where hosue prices have readjusted to much higher multiples than in previous generations, then great. Sgow me with evidence. You'll have to do more than say "IRs are low" - that is a recent phenomena. I want more, but am happy to see any good evidence.

But the main bull argument on here at present seems to be "you're wrong, it's still going up, get lost losers, look at all my BTLs that I am giving interest to the banks over". That's not an argument. That's just saying, in a fairly smug way, the market is still booming. And a booming market is still a market that will crash.

I have no seen a decent argument to counter the suggestion that the present housing boom is to do with cheap money and a bubble mentality. I'd love to see it. If I am wrong great.

I agree that bears need to avoid the ad hominems, but unless bulls can give a coherent, economically adroit argument, then they have nothing to say.

I guess that introducing "report" buttons on threads would be pants. But if bulls come on here with the only motive of showing off their property wealth and saying "ner ner ner it's still going up" then they're should be treated like the trolls they are.

Okay, you know I am no bull. But ...

There are enough FTBs

House prices are set at the margins - as we all know. If there are enough people earning enough money to afford to become FTBs - the market will stagger on. At any point in time about 8% of the UK housing stock is on the market (think it's 8%). And, of that 8% maybe 1 in 4 or 5 is a FTB purchase. So, maybe 2% of the market. If there are enough people earning to buy that small percentage - the market will function.

So, it does not matter if 90% of FTBs are priced out - if the 10% that are the highest earners can afford the properties that are on the market.

BTL is a business / a pension etc

FTBs no longer have the same importance in the market as BTL has taken some of the purchases they would have made. Okay, in my area a BTL does not, currently, make sense if only looked at from a cash-flow perspective - but, taking a long term view, I believe a lot of people think 'losing' a couple of hundred quid a month on their BTL is, effectively, a pension contribution. So, despite prices that mean the rent does not cover the mortgage - the mass exodus from BTL does not seem to have happened.

Interest Rates

Interest Rates have been low (by historical standards) for quite a long time. High interest rates are used to combat inflation in booming economies. I can't see them being needed here for a long time. Globalization means deflationary pressures. I thought IRs were going up and up but last Autumn's cut has convinced people they are not going to go higher and higher. I have to say that I agree with them. (I do not rule out higher interest rates because of a currency crisis though - caused by our trading partners 'devaluing' our currency as they realise that we are just printing it so people can borrow more to buy their (our trading partner's) goods

To sum up - I used to think the market would/must correct itself. Now I think we are in for a long period of, at best, stagnation, or at worst, slight increases in property prices. To crash the market needs a trigger. And slightly rising insolvencies, a few more repossessions etc as people's debts become too much - is not going to cause a crash. Big global economic crisis will do it - so the carry trade stuff and the massive US deficit might do it. But when? Nothing is certain and almost every interest is vested in this NOT happening. Which doesn't mean it won't happen - it just makes it less likely.

As a generation, I would suggest a fair proportion of the generation between the age of say 20 and 35 is pretty well screwed. You will never afford a house and, if you do, it will be with a debt round your neck that will take all the fun out of life because you will live to work to pay your mortgage.

The upside is, I guess, there will be so many of you renting forever that rents will not go up.

And if any of you say 'you're talking rubbish, house prices are going down where I live' - I can tell you they went down where I live too - throughout 2004 and 2005 - right up until Interest Rates were cut. Now the market looks pretty buoyant again. So, don't kid yourself you are in crash position. If you are up North or in Wales etc - the market is just doing what it did here a couple of years ago - correcting from irrational highs. The market will dust itself off after a bit - and carry on as usual.

Edited by Marina

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IMHO I have seen this situation before.

In fact, I got suckered in at this stage myself, hence the reason I am confident I am right.

The economy has not changed, it remains cyclic. The difference this time was simply the events of Sept 11th and the angle taken to stave off a global economic meltdown using interest rates to stimulate a consumer led recovery.

Now that is the reason we did not go into recession, however it comes at a cost and the cost is debt.

We have had a bouyant few years since Sept11th but the disease remains, we are in a terminal situation but lashing of medication through the use of credit by both Government and Public is keeping us alive.

Prior to the last recession we had a last gasp of air, property had a mini recovery and people jumped in. This was the straw that broke the camels back and the rest is history.

2007 last quarter is the year to watch, and gains made this year in the market will be lost next. There is money to be made from property this year provided you can turn it around inside 12wks. Any longer and you are putting your head on a chopping block and winging it.

The property game is all about getting on the bandwagon in the early stages and hopping off before its too late. Many STR'ers, FTB'ers, are all showing their inablility to make sound financial descisions. Many hopped off too early, and some couldnt even see that a three bed semi at 50K which was barely land value was a bargain preferrring to sit it out in the vain hope they would go down. Instead they have just followed them up, using the rental argument to support their misjudged theories for comfort.

Lets all be honest here, the much heralded crash is not here yet, it was not here last year when people were posting it was, nor the year before, or the year before that when I first joined the board with the label of Bear.

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We are in a new paradigm, only if there will not be a rescession again. If that is the case, there will be no house price crash again.

I personally think that that both a certain to occur at some stage. But no one knows when. Or in what order.

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Guest prudence

People will all have their own ideas about what a forum like this is for, but here's my view of what it is for:

<<I don't understand the way some people on here seem to have such an emotional investment in one particular outcome for the housing market and the economy. Why? There's nothing anyone on here, or possibly in the world, can do about these things. Tying one's personal happiness into a particular outcome, and getting some strange notion that by shouting about it on here for long enough it might actually be made to happen is just madness in my opinion, and also the road to unhappiness.>>

It is a financial - not an emotional investment. For example, people who have str----d have done so because they believe that the market will fall and that now is a better time to rent than own. It is therefore not a question of being impotent to effect change. It is a question of having made changes to one's life because of forecasts one has made...............

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I have been attacked and called a troll just for stating that i do not see prices being wiped out in some areas of London. It does not worry me, as i usually the finds the ones who attack as having nothing of any importance to stay. I read reports about how much influence City of London has as a main financial centre and have friends who work in the city doing very well.

have posted this before so sorry for repeating myself - here is report from London Evening Standard couple days ago.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....64&in_page_id=2

quote: "Growth in international financial markets in the UK has been strong in recent years. Between 1995 and 2004, cross-border lending soared by 161%. Turnover in foreign equities rose 256% and over-the-counter derivatives by 769%.

As a result UK financial service trade balance went from $7.6bn in 1995 to $25.3bn in 2003 - far in excess of rivals like Germany. France, Japan and the US.

London now has 70% of the world's secondary bond market, more than 40per cent of foreign equities turnover, more than 40% of overthecounter derivatives, 30% of the world's foreign exchange business, as well as a 20% share of the international bond market." end quote

to me they are pretty impressive figures and explain why the property market is still "warm" in City favoured areas. A member by the name of "Geranium" posted yesterday about the rises in certain London areas - someone who i always found bearish on matters.

I don't think abuse and attack is the way forward for this site. (just read back through this one thread to see my point)

HPC has very few members, which is surprising and i know for a fact that many do not take it seriously. Mentioned before but i used to work on Sunday Broadsheet and ex colleagues when i mentioned the site found it too radical and at times too blinkered to be taken seriously (their words not mine.) IMO there is blatant VI and twisting of facts - step forward Realistbear for instance. Not attacking him as he raises some excellent points - but why the need for such sexing up and spin when he is preaching to the converted? And when I challenge him I am attacked for this?? Come on ladies and gentlemen what is going on, when it is so blatant.

Also my main concern is how certain generalizations are made. I have a mortgage and pay 4.49% fixed for 3 yrs. Not everyone is on 100% mortgage, many have equity and have paid a good deposit. I am ok with my costs and will get (hopefully) a lodger if things get tough. Not all buyers are stupid idiots. Also STR is not an option for some with families in good schools etc. My flat is more than an investment vehicle, I wanted to feel relaxed and settled (after being mucked around by too many LL's). Many also do not have the nerve or time to risk monies on the stock market.

BUT I do see far too many newbuilds and the personal debt figures are very worrying, and can easily see how some areas out of zone 1 London are very overpriced and could fall. I am also concerned about terrorist risk in London.

If this view makes me a troll then so be it...............

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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i was watching an episode of only fools and horsees. it was all about things being quiet and with no money about, del announced he'd 'bought the council flat'. it was 1991-1992 era. they were all gutted as they said he lost loads. rodneys missus said it was three times the rent. there was totally no fizz about housing. they were stuck in that council flat and couldnt ever, ever sell it. another thing was mentioned about bottled water was one of the few growth industries. the episode was all about the dark early 90s downturn. i think it was the third series. worth looking out for.

it was a real eye opener. and to think, this was after the unbreakable yuppie housing boom of the late 80s.

it gave me confidence that what seems impossible now, is only a corner away.

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[snip]

People should also be aware that a HPC willl occur triggered by any or all of the following

- Escalating energy prices

- [snip]

I can see the scene now repeated around the nation.

A breakfast table in the suburbs. Husband, Terry, is eating his cereal with a copy of the Daily Mail open on the table in front of him. Wife, June, is just returning from picking up the morning post from the door mat.

June: Oh look, dear: the post's arrived.

June opens the first envelope. Goes white, looks shocked and sits down.

Terry: What is it dear? Not bad news I hope?

June: Terry, I...I don't know how to say it. It's the most terrible news!

Terry: What is it? It's not a letter from Sir Dennis saying that my membership of the golf club has been blackballed again and that he's unexpectedly coming for dinner tonight?

June: No dear... it's worse than that.

Terry: What is it?

June: It's... it's the gas bill. It's gone up 20%.

Terry: What!? It's bad enough that my petrol bill has gone up by 15% or five pounds a week over the last 12 months! How much is our new gas bill?

June: Brace yourself darling: we're going to have to pay another fifty pounds a quarter via Direct Debit!

Terry clutches at chest, falls to floor and with his dying words manages to tell June to cancel their proposed acquisition of a buy to let property.

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Guest prudence

.

Also my main concern is how certain generalizations are made. I have a mortgage and pay 4.49% fixed for 3 yrs. Not everyone is on 100% mortgage, many have equity and have paid a good deposit. I am ok with my costs and will get (hopefully) a lodger if things get tough. Not all buyers are stupid idiots. Also STR is not an option for some with families in good schools etc. My flat is more than an investment vehicle, I wanted to feel relaxed and settled (after being mucked around by too many LL's). Many also do not have the nerve or time to risk monies on the stock market.

BUT I do see far too many newbuilds and the personal debt figures are very worrying, and can easily see how some areas out of zone 1 London are very overpriced and could fall. I am also concerned about terrorist risk in London.

If this view makes me a troll then so be it...............

The point of this forum, surely, is to discuss what one thinks is going to happen with the housing market. Whether you personally regard your home simply as an investment vehicle or more than that is therefore entirely irrelevant................

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A HPC can only happen after property has boomed. The boom creates the crash. No boom, no crash. By definition, if it booms, it crashes.

Property is still going up at a rate faster than inflation, if some of the latest stats are to be believed, i.e. the market is still booming.

The site is still reporting HPI, though we with some scepticism about the stats presented by some groups.

Is this site now all about the failure to see a crash? Have we got it wrong, and are in a new era?

No. If anything, some of us (not me) have wanted this state of affairs, on the basis that the bigger the boom, the bigger the crash.

I am up for debate. I want to be open minded. If people want to come on here and argue sensibly that at some point soon I should buy, then great, go for it. If this is a new era, where hosue prices have readjusted to much higher multiples than in previous generations, then great. Sgow me with evidence. You'll have to do more than say "IRs are low" - that is a recent phenomena. I want more, but am happy to see any good evidence.

But the main bull argument on here at present seems to be "you're wrong, it's still going up, get lost losers, look at all my BTLs that I am giving interest to the banks over". That's not an argument. That's just saying, in a fairly smug way, the market is still booming. And a booming market is still a market that will crash.

I have no seen a decent argument to counter the suggestion that the present housing boom is to do with cheap money and a bubble mentality. I'd love to see it. If I am wrong great.

I agree that bears need to avoid the ad hominems, but unless bulls can give a coherent, economically adroit argument, then they have nothing to say.

I guess that introducing "report" buttons on threads would be pants. But if bulls come on here with the only motive of showing off their property wealth and saying "ner ner ner it's still going up" then they're should be treated like the trolls they are.

I think one of the problems that a lot of people have is that they base this whole house price ratio upon the old 3.5 x income level. What they should be considering is affordability. For example, I bought my current house in 1993 for £100k, I could probably sell it easily now for around £250k. When I bought, a 90% mortgage was costing me around £800 a month. Today, a 90% mortgage would cost around £1300 per month. This is an increase of around 62% which is about the same as compounded wage rises of 3-4% over the 13 years. In other words, it is no more expensive to buy my house on a 90% repayment mortgage today than it was 13 years ago. Affordability, together with 10 year fixed rates that take out the risk of higher repayments is the reason why there is no crash and there is unlikely to be one. IMO of course.

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I think one of the problems that a lot of people have is that they base this whole house price ratio upon the old 3.5 x income level. What they should be considering is affordability. For example, I bought my current house in 1993 for £100k, I could probably sell it easily now for around £250k. When I bought, a 90% mortgage was costing me around £800 a month. Today, a 90% mortgage would cost around £1300 per month. This is an increase of around 62% which is about the same as compounded wage rises of 3-4% over the 13 years. In other words, it is no more expensive to buy my house on a 90% repayment mortgage today than it was 13 years ago. Affordability, together with 10 year fixed rates that take out the risk of higher repayments is the reason why there is no crash and there is unlikely to be one. IMO of course.

The reason 3.5 times salary was/is there is to protect against big'ish interest rate movements. Nobody takes out 10 year fixed do they?

So stretching yourself when rates are HISTORICALLY low is a bad idea IMO. Where is the guarantee that interest rates will not go up by 1 or 2 or even 3% ? If they do, most people will be shafted IMO, as due to the low inflation their loan_will_not_be_eroded_away_as_quickly.

In fact, go to most websites and 3.5 is still the figure they quote for how much you can borrow. Well the ones I've seen anyway.

People have idealistic views of this website IMO. Getting your opinion challenged/rubbished is all part of it IMO.

With regards to the financial services (beenhearingthisforyears), what is the relationship between this good news/fact and the UK economy in general? Apart from the obvious employment in the City and the large shareholders creaming it in? Are you saying this is going to keep house prices high, or was it a follow on from a previous rant?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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