Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Is Reality Hitting Home?


lookingafterthekids
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yandros,

History always repeats itself as EVERYTHING in the universe is cyclical, at least to a degree in our lifetime.

SO, if bad things have happened before and you hurt your hands, is it not your responsibility to make sure that you do not do it again?

Everything in life is continually evolving and by moving, you stay on top of the wave.

Stay still and get overwhelmed.

Actually *he says holding up the off topic-apology sign*, the universe is far from cyclical. Entropy rather sees to that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 172
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I bet it is if you cannot be arsed to do anything. Prove me wrong Yandros, prove me wrong.

Do you want to sit around mulling on the negative aspects of the apparent bad world that we always seem to live in or do you want to say fu*k you, stay put if you wish, but while your sitting still, I'm off..............

You are off where.... to add another ex council flat to your BTL portfolio?

This is what I meant. You think that five poxy council flats makes you a superior person.

Here in Berkshire we've had our crash. It was about 15% generally. Now they are moving up again. Almost every board round here has Sold written on it. There is actually a shortage of property on the market.

The same will happen where you are. Why? Because there are enough people earning enough money at today's interest rates to keep the market moving. Last years fall in IRs convinced people they have topped out. People hear what they want to hear and with a thousand siren voices saying IRs are stable - they are still buying.

You lot had your chance and blew it. Sentiment was beginning to turn negative, but you sat on your behinds and posted furiously on this forum - instead of getting into the mainstream media and letting people know you were angry at being priced out of home ownership.

You are reaping what you have sown.

With over 2000 posts on this forum, you've done more than your fair share of sitting on your backside.

I thought you were HPC's leading monger of doom and STR advocate. When you say "you lot... blew it" what you really mean is "I've blown it". Are you starting to panic?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stay around long enough worrying bout property prices and I'll jump up and say "told you so">

No, you've got me wrong there. I'm hardly worried. I've afraid I'm just lurking around vulture-like waiting for a good time to pick a decent bargain. :D

I'll own up to mild degree of irritation that our current garden hasn't really got room for a bigger greenhouse, and we could really do with a dedicated library, but worried - nah!

You are right about one thing though. There are too many people here who seem to be so amazingly nihilistic. I wonder if some will ever jump on the dreaded ladder.

However (and it's a big however), I can see why they are thinking like this. Their qualifications are devalued, they have huge student loans, pension funds can't be trusted. Rents are high, house prices are a sick joke. Compared to those born in the previous few decades (jobs for life, pensions, nice houses, nice cars etc), their lives are looking rather bleak.

Taking a longer view though folks, would you have wanted to be 21 in 1914, or 1939? It's the luck of the draw.

Edited by Yandros
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are off where.... to add another ex council flat to your BTL portfolio?

This is what I meant. You think that five poxy council flats makes you a superior person.

I am superior to no one and have never ever claimed to be. I merely enjoy putting my point of view accross regarding the housing market. If you read between the lines there are far more wealthy and superior posters on this board

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls.

Less than 80%? You mean that nearly all properties will see prices fall?

I'm a bit confused by your language. If you had said "up to 80% of properties will see prices fall", which amounts to the same thing, it would sound a bit different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here’s a sketchy potted history of the last 6 years or so of lunacy and an answer to how this will play out.

For Landlords..................

House prices go up - slowly

BTL now making a loss - only for mug landlords. The rest are laughing

Rents go up - nice

Wages go up - nice - more rent increses

Inflation goes up - whats inflation

Interest rates go up - fixed so no pro!

BTL now making a loss again - some bloody silly people out there.....

Rents go up - christmas day again.......

Wages go up - more rent increses

Inflation goes up - whats inflation

Interest rates go up - fixed so no pro!

Chinese and Indian economies tap GB plc on the shoulder and say “remember us” - more tenants?

Bull wakes up from dream in a cold sweat, has a shower, then continues to eat breakfast on the patio before going to the gym. Again...............

Or how about this scenario…

House prices go up - slowly

FTBs extinct - until wages catch up but in the mean time renting

BTL now making a loss - only for mug landlords. The rest are laughing

Rents go up - nice

Rents go up - even nicer

Wages can’t increase due to cheap foreign labour - as long as rent is paid - nice

Consumer spending collapses as all income spent on rent - good

Economy goes into recession - things get a little cheaper so rental income buys more

HPC!!!! - as long as rent is on time and properties are cheap, bring it on

Or this one…

House prices stay static - downer but, hey, the suns shining and the wines chilled

IRs creep up very slowly - no problemo for next decade as fixed

BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable - loads of cheap properties for sale

BTLs bail out - loads of cheap properties for sale

HPC!!! - as long as rent is on time and properties are cheap, bring it on

Or how about…house prices achieve the mythical ‘soft landing’

IRs stay low - cheaper fixes

Inflation stays low - is that good

BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity - selling up so cheaper properties + easier lets

BTLers run out of capital for further purchases - so sit back and enjoy life while better placed landords buy them out for peanuts

FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy - more rent

Bottom end of market collapses - cheaper properties with better yields

HPC!!! - as long as rent is on time and properties are cheap, bring it on

So please, all the bulls out there – what mythical scenario am I missing where you all live happily ever after?

None - it's all wicked - thanks for making my day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tend to agree with the first of those scenario's; especially since where I live, the Councils seem totally disinterested in building new homes, with the demand being passed heavily onto the private sector. Can't say that's ever happened before.

What the hell, my BTL's are making money, that's all I can say really.

Edited by billy-g
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wrong.

Read my previous posts.

In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls.

Silly billy london newbuild flat owners will run the fastest.

It might be time to toughen up, stop tittle tattling about you said this he said that and face facts.

Sorry

I get most of my cheap properties from people wanting to sell quickly.

And at the moment, they aren't.

They are risking placing their properties on the open market and on average are achieving 93 - 96% of the original agents valuation.

Not bad for them.

Bad for you lot.

And me!

AAAAHHHHH TTRTR!!

I thought I recognized a Major league highly³ leveraged caring BTL landlout after reading your desperate words.. :lol:

How are things in Leverage land these days? Or was that Sweden? Abba land....

Bit to shy to post with your own login?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Econmic theory and doom mongering aside.

Where is the house price crash? Where is cruise crash speed?

Despite your need for a HPC, it hasn't happened yet and despite the fact that I think prices will fall in 2006, I'm afraid to say that I think your house price christmas day may be a long time coming.

Surely there is only so many times you can tell yourself "There will be a crash, there will be a crash".

I think it's time to agree:

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board"

Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))

Prices have fallen and are continuing to fall where I am which is all that really matters to me. Down around 15% in the poorest areas and the falls are filtering through the market with about 10% in the middle suburbs now. Doesn't seem to have reached the wealthy areas yet but it's come from the bottom up so presumably it will reach the top end of town in due course.

These aren't statistics, but actual prices given to me by EA's when I've asked. I go to open homes quite regularly and ask the EA a few questions just to keep track of the market. Asking prices are falling and are now slightly below actual selling prices a couple of years ago. Unless someone is dumb enough to pay over the asking price, the selling price will be less than it would have been. According to the EA's I've spoken to, it's hard to get even the reduced asking price these days...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Randall Herbert:

Wrong.

Never seen the need for ailiases as I have nothing to hide.

Sorry. Good try but as usual - wrong. :D

Keep up the good work.

:D:D

According to the EA's I've spoken to, it's hard to get even the reduced asking price these days...

And where are you based Smurfit. Your EA should have been on the TV last week because he is speaking p*o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fair comment. Stagnation is indeed possible (just look at Japan). There's one factor I almost mentioned though, but the post was already turning into HPC War and peace - the influence of the prices of newbuilds. Referring back 1992, the thing that really sticks in my mind, was, a year or 2 after buing in a newbuild flat for £42K, seeing a huge sign on the entrance of the estate, put up by the original developers...

"Come and see our new development at #######. Move in for £21,000!"

Sure the BTL brigade might try and hang on in a stagnant market, but the professionals, namely housebuilders and estate agents need to maintain sales volume.

Is anyone seriously trying to tell me that, in the last 6 years, when house prices have gone up my 150%+, that the construction costs of newbuilds have followed suit? NO WAY. The builders are in the same lucky position as the oil companies, and are quietly pocketing the profits from a rocketing commodity price. When the going gets tough due to low sales volumes, they just slash prices. Been there, done that, got T-shirt.

Good point - whatever happens in the rest of the market, I seriously think that new-builds are in a bubble all of their own. Round me, you pay about 50-80% more for a new-build with no garden compared to larger street properties with gardens. The builders have just been taking th p*** and can afford to put these prices down a long way - and they will probably have to sooner or later, although a lot of those who bought will be saddled with the falls instead.

What I do think might happen is that there might be some significant falls, but with new-builds falling the worst, and properties that have traditionally been more desirable faring less badly. Great if you want to pick up a cheap new-build in five years time. But not much use if you wouldn't touch one with a bargepole, now or in ten years time when they end up revealed as the slums of the next three decades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest consa

Good point - whatever happens in the rest of the market, I seriously think that new-builds are in a bubble all of their own. Round me, you pay about 50-80% more for a new-build with no garden compared to larger street properties with gardens. The builders have just been taking th p*** and can afford to put these prices down a long way - and they will probably have to sooner or later, although a lot of those who bought will be saddled with the falls instead.

What I do think might happen is that there might be some significant falls, but with new-builds falling the worst, and properties that have traditionally been more desirable faring less badly. Great if you want to pick up a cheap new-build in five years time. But not much use if you wouldn't touch one with a bargepole, now or in ten years time when they end up revealed as the slums of the next three decades.

It is not surprising when newbuild prices are now between £1000-£1200/m2 and bricklayer are demanding £130/day +

up from £800m2 about a year ago and £100/day

(in my area, I suspect London is near on double this)

Reality will feed through and mass layoffs will happen just as it did in the early 90's.

"The cycle continues, inevitably"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is not surprising when newbuild prices are now between £1000-£1200/m2 and bricklayer are demanding £130/day +

up from £800m2 about a year ago and £100/day

(in my area, I suspect London is near on double this)

Reality will feed through and mass layoffs will happen just as it did in the early 90's.

"The cycle continues, inevitably"

I suppose that's just everyone trying to get their share, but there is nonetheless a huge mark-up on new-builds, and a long way to fall once those lay-offs start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is not surprising when newbuild prices are now between £1000-£1200/m2 and bricklayer are demanding £130/day +

up from £800m2 about a year ago and £100/day

(in my area, I suspect London is near on double this)

Reality will feed through and mass layoffs will happen just as it did in the early 90's.

"The cycle continues, inevitably"

And by God do they have to earn it, head down ars3 up all day. For less than a solicitor charges for half hour.

A bricklayer has to lay 1,000 bricks a day, in freezing cold pising rain, has a limited life expectency and can look forward to nothing at all except misery.

If anyone is contemplating the idea of throwing in the cushy public service job, or giving up IT, just spend an hour on a building site on a winters morning and then think again. Wild horses would not drag me back to that life of cr4p.

Current Facework prices are 500 pounds a thousand, and a four bed house will consume 10,000 bricks. So 5k in labour for a house valued at 450k you are going to have to look elsewhere for your scapegoat.

Edited by laurejon
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the "denial" phase is over and now we're seeing "anger" judging by that post. All part of the cycle and as expected.

Yes your right, I'm really angry.

My last sale completed 3 days late, for £500 under the asking price and I had to deal with the whole thing myself as I saved £1,000's by not using an agent.

Can't wait for kickboxing tommorrow. The bags had it........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't help it.

I'm an angry property person and all of these people that have jumped on the HPC bangwagon telling me that my fortune is about to crumble into dust are beginning to make me angry.

They can't be right.

They can't be right.

They can't be right.

Am I in denial. Do I need help.

Somebody, tell me what to do.

While I'm waiting for a realistic pointer, I'm off to get a couple of bottles of good red to drink while I watch the Eastenders omnibus.

:rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.