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Is Reality Hitting Home?


lookingafterthekids
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Is this not just a repeat of the last time property tanked? Loads of grim news in the economy, increasing job losses and talk of rate rises and yet the housing market is strangely unaffected! It seems to me to be building up for a repeat performance.

Local house asking price has dropped by £30k in the last few weeks, was on at £450k. Rare enough to see For Sale signs around here let alone half a dozen AND a reduced price on one of them. A bouyant market? ;)

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I regret to say that I agree. I joined the forum as a casual observer, not knowing what direction prices would take, but was convinced by the Bear arguments.

I think we've had the correction, for what it was worth, and that prices will now stagnate for the next 3 years or so, allowing wages to close the gap a bit.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

Sorry. I blinked :rolleyes: . Now you were saying?

CO. What is your definition of a correction? and when do you think it happened? and when do you think it finished? I am really confused.

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Sorry. I blinked :rolleyes: . Now you were saying?

CO. What is your definition of a correction? and when do you think it happened? and when do you think it finished? I am really confused.

I believe prices dropped around 10% in many parts, over the last 18 months or so, certainly in the London area.. And now, unfortunately, sentiment has changed again towards a more bullish attitude to prices.I think the opportunity for further falls passed somehow, between the last IR cut and Xmas.

And I bumped ito a young colleague from Uttoxeter this morning, who tells me that the market there seems to have turned "overnight" with many of the houses that remained unsold througout last year now sold.

Edited by Casual Observer
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I believe prices dropped around 10% in many parts, over the last 18 months or so, certainly in the London area.. And now, unfortunately, sentiment has changed again towards a more bullish attitude to prices.I think the opportunity for further falls passed somehow, between the last IR cut and Xmas.

And I bumped ito a young colleague from Uttoxeter this morning, who tells me that the market there seems to have turned "overnight" with many of the houses that remained unsold througout last year now sold.

I will be very interested to see what land registry figures show then. If they actually show a downturn in real (accepted) prices then I would expect that to be a big expectation manager and might even precipitate further falls. I am just aware of the Sydney situation where they dropped about 10-12% sat static for about 4 months then dropped by about another 15%.

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House prices stay static

IRs creep up very slowly

BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable

BTLs bail out

HPC!!!

Or how about…house prices achieve the mythical ‘soft landing’

IRs stay low

Inflation stays low

BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity

BTLers run out of capital for further purchases (not that there’s any point since there’s now no money to be made by increasing the portfolio)

FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy

Bottom end of market collapses

HPC!!!

I'm not a bull but I see possible alternative endings here:

House prices stay static

IRs creep up very slowly

BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable

BTLs... don't bail out because they aren't too clued up on alternative investments, and think that their properties are their pension - many if not all BTLs put up with zero yield or small losses on this basis for the forseeable future.

Stagnation or slow increases continue.

IRs stay low

Inflation stays low

BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity

BTLers... mostly try to hang on to what they have. A smaller number of new BTLs continue to enter the market in spite of low yields because of the mantra that they are in it for the long term

FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy

Bottom end of market... keeps ticking over slowly because there is a small but steady turnover of FTBs with enough money to scrape a purchase, and a small amount of continued investment activity.

Stagnation or small increases continue.

I'm not predicting these scenarios - I think moderate falls are more likely, and big falls in some areas. But none of us really knows what will happen, and telling ourselves bedtime stories with happy endings isn't a proof that these things will come to pass.

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Question - did anyone here really notice the 92" recession? Did it affect you day to day life.

I bet it didnt if 1) You had little debt or borrowing 2) You did not live beyond your means 3) You had a few brain cells.

Actually I did and it did. And no I personally had reasonable debt (at that time around 2.5 times salary on my mortgage), no further borowings always believing in saving to buy things I wanted and like to think I have a few brain cells with a science degree from a red brick university. So too, did most of the hard working concencious people I had to make redundant.

I recall the many sleepless nights thinking what to tell the MD why turnover figures why down, why profit margins were being savaged, where else I could make cost savings in the departement even after I had cut advertising, staff training, salary / bonus freezes, maintenance schedules, increased company car replacement cycles from to 2 to 3 years etc. etc. After a couple of painful years there was the then inevitable, re-organisations and redundancies, followed by delayering and redundancies, then just plain redundancies and finally the company went bust. Only then did the last employees find out that things were so bad that the group finance management had done a Maxwell and been borowing from the pension fund.

Don't tell me I didn't notice the 90's recession you liitle pr**k. Sounds like you were just about enjoying your first fondle behind the bikesheds.

Apology to Oldie / other mods - I know that you are trying to clamp down on abuse to other posters but this twonk is a complete and utter f***wit.

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Same here.Head of the family retail business.Seeing nearly all the other shops in the road closed/repossed.Watching IR`s going ever upwards.Staying in business because other competition hitting the wall @ 100 miles an hour.

How`s about friends and aquaintances losing their homes,some of whom were middle aged with little or no hope of getting back on their feet.That`s just for starters.So how dare anybody say that most people were untouched by the last recession.As my learned friend above points out this guy has no idea just how bad it was.So best he keeps his dumb a--ed stupid opinions to himself!

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Leftysmate & Pobby,

Thanks for the nice words.

But is this not a "discussion" board. A lot of things I read on here bug the sh*t out of me but I do not resort to personal insults.

Sorry to hear about your problems.

But if you disagree with me at least have the courtesy to be polite. Especially as you have a degree from a red brick university.

As is unavoidable in any occurance there will be people that are affected and people that are not.

Although things were undoubtedly tighter, it wasn't bread and water all round with rioting in the streets.

Even during the tight early 90's there were people that did well and prospered.

This is the crux of the argument.

Whenever and during whatever, if you have the right outlook you will see the positives and move forward. If all you can do is rue the past, moan about the present and worry about the future then you are stuck rigid.

I appreciate that everyone is different but rather than moan about everyone and everything else and rely on external influences to control your happiness, do whats needed to make you happy now, in 12 months time or whenever.

Edited by lookingafterthekids
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Leftysmate & Pobby,

Thanks for the nice words.

Sorry to hear about your problems.

But if you disagree with me at least have the courtesy to be polite. Especially as you have a degree from a red brick university.

My problems and those of around 35 (my dept); 225 (uk subsiduary) ; 1500 (European wide company). Trust me -I was being polite; Forget all your subsequent attempts at mitigating your original weasel words, and accept that there was a lot of pain (personal and corporate) around in the early 90's recession.

I accept that there were some people that inevitably prospered, in much the same way that some are starting to now (debt collection, cashconverters, shorts on CWD, B&Q etc) but that wasn't your original point. Stop changing the goalposts.

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I agree with my learned friend above once again.

Again I can only assume that you were not around or you were too young to realise exactly what happened in the recession or else you would not have posted your rather niave comments.I wonder if leftysmate may agree with me that imho we may be approaching another one in the not distant future.

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225 in a Uk company in a supposed UK recession?

Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

In fact your lucky these days to have a job (read contract) of over 12 months.

There is ALWAYS a lot of personal pain whether personal or company , recession or boom and if you think otherwise then you are wrong.

Even during 1997 - 2004 there have been repossessions, layoffs, problems. Look and the personal problems experienced by the Birmingham motor workforce over the recent 'boom' years.

My original point was, did the 92 'recession' have a major effect on your day to day life. I'm sorry that of over 2500 views, it affected you. But by the same token you could ask the question did the 2005 shakeup affect you and only people like those at Rover would respond.

You are showing your true personality by saying that those that are profiting now are cashconvertors et al.

You can always prosper by adjusting your approach.

And your right, my original post was not about the 92' recession.It was about the predicted far reaching HPC

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I'm not a bull but I see possible alternative endings here:

House prices stay static

IRs creep up very slowly

BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable

BTLs... don't bail out because they aren't too clued up on alternative investments, and think that their properties are their pension - many if not all BTLs put up with zero yield or small losses on this basis for the forseeable future.

Stagnation or slow increases continue.

IRs stay low

Inflation stays low

BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity

BTLers... mostly try to hang on to what they have. A smaller number of new BTLs continue to enter the market in spite of low yields because of the mantra that they are in it for the long term

FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy

Bottom end of market... keeps ticking over slowly because there is a small but steady turnover of FTBs with enough money to scrape a purchase, and a small amount of continued investment activity.

Stagnation or small increases continue.

I'm not predicting these scenarios - I think moderate falls are more likely, and big falls in some areas. But none of us really knows what will happen, and telling ourselves bedtime stories with happy endings isn't a proof that these things will come to pass.

Fair comment. Stagnation is indeed possible (just look at Japan). There's one factor I almost mentioned though, but the post was already turning into HPC War and peace - the influence of the prices of newbuilds. Referring back 1992, the thing that really sticks in my mind, was, a year or 2 after buing in a newbuild flat for £42K, seeing a huge sign on the entrance of the estate, put up by the original developers...

"Come and see our new development at #######. Move in for £21,000!"

Sure the BTL brigade might try and hang on in a stagnant market, but the professionals, namely housebuilders and estate agents need to maintain sales volume.

Is anyone seriously trying to tell me that, in the last 6 years, when house prices have gone up my 150%+, that the construction costs of newbuilds have followed suit? NO WAY. The builders are in the same lucky position as the oil companies, and are quietly pocketing the profits from a rocketing commodity price. When the going gets tough due to low sales volumes, they just slash prices. Been there, done that, got T-shirt.

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225 in a Uk company in a supposed UK recession?

Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

In fact your lucky these days to have a job (read contract) of over 12 months.

There is ALWAYS a lot of personal pain whether personal or company , recession or boom and if you think otherwise then you are wrong.

Even during 1997 - 2004 there have been repossessions, layoffs, problems. Look and the personal problems experienced by the Birmingham motor workforce over the recent 'boom' years.

My original point was, did the 92 'recession' have a major effect on your day to day life. I'm sorry that of over 2500 views, it affected you. But by the same token you could ask the question did the 2005 shakeup affect you and only people like those at Rover would respond.

You are showing your true personality by saying that those that are profiting now are cashconvertors et al.

You can always prosper by adjusting your approach.

And your right, my original post was not about the 92' recession.It was about the predicted far reaching HPC

Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

No- you get bloody real!! I gave you one personal example in response to your original denigration that anyone in the 92 era was affected. Actually at the time we had the infamous end to News at Ten when they went through the list of job losses and company closures every night!! It was a major event when they made an announcement of any new jobs created.

I don't know off hand the actual numbers of the early 90's recession and to be honest can't be arsed to find out for someone who was obviously still itching to get to use a razor for the first time. I'd be suprised that it was anything less than orders of magnitude more than the last few years though. I agree that recent years have seen a change in working practices and employment terms but true unemployment on the scale that we had then - not a chance.

Of course, if I'm the only the only one to respond to the 2500 views then you're right. It must have been a non event. It couldn't possibly be that others a) were too young to voice a credible opinion B) been at the wine and couldn't be arsed c) still couldn't be arsed 'cause they don't reckon you're worth spending the time on or d) thought they would reply to other threads.

By the same context, I notice none of those 2500 views jumped in to support your argument either!

225 in a Uk company in a supposed UK recession?

Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

Actually - let's agree to disagree. If you think that things have been bad for the past few years fine; I'm not going to disagree - I'll just add that if this thing really takes hold - you ain't seen nothing yet.

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Here in Berkshire we've had our crash. It was about 15% generally. Now they are moving up again. Almost every board round here has Sold written on it. There is actually a shortage of property on the market.

The same will happen where you are. Why? Because there are enough people earning enough money at today's interest rates to keep the market moving. Last years fall in IRs convinced people they have topped out. People hear what they want to hear and with a thousand siren voices saying IRs are stable - they are still buying.

You lot had your chance and blew it. Sentiment was beginning to turn negative, but you sat on your behinds and posted furiously on this forum - instead of getting into the mainstream media and letting people know you were angry at being priced out of home ownership.

You are reaping what you have sown.

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225 in a Uk company in a supposed UK recession?

My original point was, did the 92 'recession' have a major effect on your day to day life. I'm sorry that of over 2500 views, it affected you. But by the same token you could ask the question did the 2005 shakeup affect you and only people like those at Rover would respond.

Yup, sure as hell effected me, and many of my friends. I was trapped with £30K negative equity (that's about £50K in todays house price terms). Many of the people who graduated at the same time as me were unable to find jobs FOR YEARS, and when they did, they were very poorly paid ones.

I'm afraid you're living proof of why a HPC is looking inevitable. You, like many others it seems, have a very poor (or selective) memory. When people forget or don't learn from history, it repeats itself.

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Leftysmate,

I hate falling out with anyone even on a Friday night after a mug of wine.

You disagree with me and I also disagree with you.

To me, it's all relative.There will be people this very day saying that this is THE worst time for everything. Jobs, houses, relationships.

There were people saying the same in 1989 etc etc etc.

The truth is that there is never a perfect or worst day for anything that you wish to do. The physical world stays the same, it is only our perception that differs and that is totally under our control.

It is an easy way out pointing the finger at forces beyond our control. It is much harder pointing the finger at ourselves.

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Yandros,

History always repeats itself as EVERYTHING in the universe is cyclical, at least to a degree in our lifetime.

SO, if bad things have happened before and you hurt your hands, is it not your responsibility to make sure that you do not do it again?

Everything in life is continually evolving and by moving, you stay on top of the wave.

Stay still and get overwhelmed.

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Leftysmate,

The truth is that there is never a perfect or worst day for anything that you wish to do. The physical world stays the same, it is only our perception that differs and that is totally under our control.

It is an easy way out pointing the finger at forces beyond our control. It is much harder pointing the finger at ourselves.

Congratulations, that's the biggest load of claptrap I've read all week! :lol:

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Congratulations, that's the biggest load of claptrap I've read all week! :lol:

I bet it is if you cannot be arsed to do anything. Prove me wrong Yandros, prove me wrong.

Do you want to sit around mulling on the negative aspects of the apparent bad world that we always seem to live in or do you want to say fu*k you, stay put if you wish, but while your sitting still, I'm off..............

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