Is Reality Hitting Home?

[needle]

I shouldnt really bite on this..it only encourages that dumb "prices-will-go-up-forever" type of negativity.

But what the hell....

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board"

BUT......

In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls.

Huh? I dont get what youre trying to say - there will be a crash, but different houses will lose different amounts.

Or there wont be a crash if different houses lose different amounts but only across 75% of the country?

Which is it?

A crash will not happen in a day and will not be visible after a week.

It will be visible to most only in retrospect. (Like when you try to sell a place and it wont shift.)

The trick is to see it, not necessarily before it happens, but at the very leastwhen its happening.

Youre obviously too busy fluffing your opinions to see that we're right in it at the moment.

Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))

You are a legend.

This is the HPC quote.

I bet this quote is gonna go down in history like the "there is no hurricane" or "there are no American troops in Bagdhad".

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Yandros]

I'm afraid the denial is all coming from the bulls.

The market is finding ever more desperate ways of defying gravity, but I think we're starting to see all the endgames more clearly now.

Here’s a sketchy potted history of the last 6 years or so of lunacy for starters:

FTBs max possible mortgage unable to keep up with prices - lenders increase the multiples for FTBs.

BTL kicks off in a big way

FTB repayments starting to get horrendous - Lenders encourage interest only loans

House prices increase some more

BTL in full swing

FTB max possible mortgage falling short again - Lenders turn a blind eye to dodgy self certs

House prices increase some more

FTBs now dwindling - Government encourages shared equity schemes

House prices increase just that little bit more

BTL no longer profitable, landlords treading water

FTBs now desperate – lenders offer 45yr mortgages, and expect huge deposits

FTBs tell lenders exactly where they can stick their mortgage offers

So where do we go from here?

House prices go up

FTBs extinct

BTL now making a loss

Rents go up

Wages go up

Inflation goes up

Interest rates go up

BTL now making a loss again

Rents go up

Wages go up

Inflation goes up

Interest rates go up

Chinese and Indian economies tap GB plc on the shoulder and say “remember us”

Bull wakes up from dream in a cold sweat

Or how about this scenario…

House prices go up

FTBs extinct

BTL now making a loss

Rents go up

Wages can’t increase due to cheap foreign labour

Consumer spending collapses as all income spent on rent

Economy goes into recession

HPC!!!!

Or this one…

House prices stay static

IRs creep up very slowly

BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable

BTLs bail out

HPC!!!

Or how about…house prices achieve the mythical ‘soft landing’

IRs stay low

Inflation stays low

BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity

BTLers run out of capital for further purchases (not that there’s any point since there’s now no money to be made by increasing the portfolio)

FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy

Bottom end of market collapses

HPC!!!

So please, all the bulls out there – what mythical scenario am I missing where you all live happily ever after?

[lookingafterthekids]

Fine...so why start the thread in the first place??

Bet your Dad's bigger than mine as well....Jesus.

Goodbye. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Becuse it was you guys that thought that you could \ can generalise about the property market hence HPC.

Your right, he is.

And don't leave your electric blanket plugged in. You know it's dangerous.

Shamus & Take The Blow

[Yandros]

Question - did anyone here really notice the 92" recession? Did it affect you day to day life.

I bet it didnt if 1) You had little debt or borrowing 2) You did not live beyond your means 3) You had a few brain cells.

Yeah, I did notice the 92 recession thanks. I got on with my life and new career, bought a flat, then saw it drop in value by 60%.

So what would you have had me do to avoid financial ruin? Not buy at all and continue renting perhaps? Silly me, surely not, because that's what all these idiot bears are suggesting today isn't it?

[feltsorryfor]

Becuse it was you guys that thought that you could \ can generalise about the property market hence HPC.

You started the topic with a generalisation then contradicted yourself saying that you cant generalise.

Are you for real???

I know I shouldn't rise to it but this guy's UNBELIEVEABLE!!

Probably a classic case of someone who's made money during the biggest property boom the world has ever seen and now thinks he's some kind of genius.

Trouble is your too thick to realise how thick you are.......where's Jeremy Beadle? I know your here somewhere.

I really am going now....before I have an aneurysm

[lookingafterthekids]

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board" - True. They may fall but not at the same rate (if at all) accross the board.

"In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls" - True.

"Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))" - True, you do.

What I am saying is that there may well be a crash if you bought a £350,000 1 bed appartment off plan overlooking the Thames but that if you bought a 2 bed ex authority flat for £30,000 in 1999 which is currently worth £72,000 which has given a rent of £495 pcm for the past 4 years then you may find that the worst of the crap predicted on this board will fly past you at 100 miles an hour without even ruffling your hair .

Tis true. I am a legend. Look back in 2015 and see the truth.

[Yandros]

Probably a classic case of someone who's made money during the biggest property boom the world has ever seen and now thinks he's some kind of genius.

Didn't you know? This country doesn't need doctors, teachers, shopworkers etc. We can all just become property developers and sell houses to each other for ever and ever!!

[lookingafterthekids]

You started the topic with a generalisation then contradicted yourself saying that you cant generalise.

Are you for real???

I know I shouldn't rise to it but this guy's UNBELIEVEABLE!!

Probably a classic case of someone who's made money during the biggest property boom the world has ever seen and now thinks he's some kind of genius.

Trouble is your too thick to realise how thick you are.......where's Jeremy Beadle? I know your here somewhere.

I really am going now....before I have an aneurysm

No, no, no, I started the topic stating that the predicted crash isn't happening. 40% reductions. No. Period.

Not a generalisation, just a fact.

I then went on to point out, yet again, that you cannot generalise about any crash (should it ever happen) because, just as you cannot predict (with any guarantee) the movements of the financial markets, you cannot accurately predict the movements of the property market.

If I am wrong and you are right, what have you spent your £10,000,000 profit made in the rising property market since 1994 on?

I'm no genius but then again I do not set up websites claiming I am

And by the way, you shouldnt joke about aneurysm's - it's not right.

[music man]

For me in Norfolk it's all peachy, 4% down by halifax standards and for the last month we have the biggest supply of houses if the EDP property mag is anything to go by.

We have had massive reductions on the previous quarter in many areas.

So, the crash could start in Norfolk or many areas in the country. We will see, and the main point for me is I'm saving 10%ish of a house value if prices stay still. I'm expecting further drops so maybe 15 - 20% this year if the drop continues or accelerates. And all the time saving and not paying interest on a dodgy loan.

[needle]

What I am saying is that there may well be a crash if you bought a £350,000 1 bed appartment off plan overlooking the Thames but that if you bought a 2 bed ex authority flat for £30,000 in 1999 which is currently worth £72,000 which has given a rent of £495 pcm for the past 4 years then you may find that the worst of the crap predicted on this board will fly past you at 100 miles an hour without even ruffling your hair .

If this is the position you take then, in general, I actually agree with you.

But yer posts werent clear - I thought you were in HPC denial.

[clv101]

Despite your need for a HPC, it hasn't happened yet and despite the fact that I think prices will fall in 2006, I'm afraid to say that I think your house price christmas day may be a long time coming.

I was under the impression that a large proportion of people here could technically afford to buy but weren't since they saw it is bad value. I mean why buy when interest payments alone are more than rent on a similar property? Why buy with no prospect of HPI and high probability of falls? Edited March 24, 2006 by clv101

[teddyboy]

im not having a pop here but when you say wages will be rising i dont see that happenning if the average wage is £30,000 pa inflation @2% £600 approx wage increases over the next five years = £3000 btw im in the construction game i was earning as much 5 years ago as wat im earning now the boom is well and truly over .when joe public realise this only then will we see significant downward movement in house prices every dog has its day . what i cant understand is why bulls hang around this site if they are so sure prices aint dropping or going to drop ?as ttrtr hes gotta be the strangest thing on this forum with his stupid avatar what a pr1ck

I cant believe this one got past everyone else without some recognition.

One of the best ends to a post I have read in a long time

TB

Edited March 24, 2006 by teddyboy

[Realistbear]

Econmic theory and doom mongering aside.

Where is the house price crash? Where is cruise crash speed?

Despite your need for a HPC, it hasn't happened yet and despite the fact that I think prices will fall in 2006, I'm afraid to say that I think your house price christmas day may be a long time coming.

Surely there is only so many times you can tell yourself "There will be a crash, there will be a crash".

I think it's time to agree:

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board"

Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))

Hindsight dear fellow, hindsight.

[Bingley Bloke]

im not having a pop here but when you say wages will be rising i dont see that happenning if the average wage is £30,000 pa inflation @2% £600 approx wage increases over the next five years = £3000 btw im in the construction game i was earning as much 5 years ago as wat im earning now the boom is well and truly over .when joe public realise this only then will we see significant downward movement in house prices every dog has its day . what i cant understand is why bulls hang around this site if they are so sure prices aint dropping or going to drop ?as ttrtr hes gotta be the strangest thing on this forum with his stupid avatar what a pr1ck

I think what will happen is that wage inflation will speed up as people become increasingly impatient with their stingy employers... let's face it, with utility bills rocketing the way they are, there isn't going to be much choice before long. Otherwise, with a lack of wage inflation, the market will become increasingly starved of buyers and will be forced lower than might otherwise be the case.

[Badger]

LATK-Do you have a monster double chin when you smile?

Edited March 24, 2006 by Badger

[Warwickshire Lad]

Not a generalisation, just a fact.

The fact is that house prices have started falling in many parts of England. The ripple effect still present in Northern Ireland and Scotland keeps the market rising slightly there, as well as new money which has recently come in to London.

Where I want to buy - prices are falling.

And that is only with a relatively small increase in IRs from 3.5% - 4.5% in 2 years. The market turned.

We still only have a slow correction, not a full-scale crash going on, I would agree. But it's only going to take a few more IR rises to change sentiment fairly quickly.

I would not want to be a "homeowner" right now. I'm keeping my precious savings in the bank and keeping my options open about where I want to spend the future.

That's sensible. Lookingafterthekids is a troll.

[Yankee]

Okey dokey - wheres your area?

Have prices fell 20% or are the falling UP TO 20%? Give us a central postcode and let us do the work with nethouseprices and rightmove and find out the truth.

In my area properties are moving much slower, more like normal levels as opposed to 03' - 04' levels, but they are still selling and for close to valuation.

Admit it - you cannot generalise about any free market.

I'm not going to say where I'm looking, because it's a very small area and I'd rather not broadcast it. I shouldn't have said 20%, however. I just did the math on several of the properties (offering vs. selling price), and it's more like 10% - 12%. Those are falls from 2004 asking prices.

I agree. You can't generalize. That's why I don't really care what your opinion is about the housing market. I'm just keeping track of prices in my area, and when they get back to the equivalent of what they were in 2001, I'll purchase. If they don't, I'll keep on renting. I'm not going to waste my money.

The market is so much different now than it was in 2004, when I first found this site. At that time, I could hardly get an estate agent to talk with me. They were able to sell homes quickly--and usually over the asking price. I couldn't get over to England fast enough to look at a house before it was sold. No longer.

Estate agents have plenty of time for me (I'm a cash buyer), and I've had owners almost plead with me to buy their homes. (One lovely couple took me out to dinner.) Prices are down and homes are on the market longer. Yes, they are still selling, but the owners are sweating.

In the States, bubble talk is pretty widespread and most people I know are bracing for it. In England, people seem to be in denial. I think much of the difference in attitudes has to do with how the press is handling the subject. On this particular topic, the American press seems to be much more objective, with less VI spin.

Anyway, let's see what's happening at this time next year. I think both the British and the American economies are in for very bumpy rides. I've prepared myself. I hope you have, too.

[Scooter]

Wrong.

Read my previous posts.

In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls.

Silly billy london newbuild flat owners will run the fastest.

It might be time to toughen up, stop tittle tattling about you said this he said that and face facts.

Sorry

I get most of my cheap properties from people wanting to sell quickly.

And at the moment, they aren't.

They are risking placing their properties on the open market and on average are achieving 93 - 96% of the original agents valuation.

Not bad for them.

So a very precise 80% will rise or stay the same you say. two questions: is this in real or inflation adjusted terms? How do you arrive at this 80% figure (or did you just make it up)?

[Casual Observer]

Econmic theory and doom mongering aside.

Where is the house price crash? Where is cruise crash speed?

Despite your need for a HPC, it hasn't happened yet and despite the fact that I think prices will fall in 2006, I'm afraid to say that I think your house price christmas day may be a long time coming.

Surely there is only so many times you can tell yourself "There will be a crash, there will be a crash".

I think it's time to agree:

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board"

Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))

I regret to say that I agree. I joined the forum as a casual observer, not knowing what direction prices would take, but was convinced by the Bear arguments.

I think we've had the correction, for what it was worth, and that prices will now stagnate for the next 3 years or so, allowing wages to close the gap a bit.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

[theChuz]

I keep seeing threads like this, we've had all of two weeks of.. well not even bullish news really, yes it has been reported that prices have risen, but come on how can everyone change thier minds in 1- 2 weeks. All it says to me is that you were just sheep in the first place.

Yes prices reportedly have risen, alot of us were expecting a moderate short lived spring bounce, nothing has changed for the better economically, infact the economy just keeps getting worse and the presure to raise rates is comming from offshore.

Personally im laughing my a*se off at it all.

What has changed to make people think HPI will stay positive indefinatly ? - Nothing.

The more i read threads like this the more i think to myself that people are changing thier minds because other posters are telling them they are changing thier minds. How f*ckin weak can you get

Whats changed?

[balamory]

I get most of my cheap properties from people wanting to sell quickly.

You write like you are Donald Trump, but if I look back to your earlier posts, I see that you own five properties (ex LA). Not exactly a tycoon. Does that include the one you live in?

Have you figured out what your LTV is yet?

[CrashIsUnderWay]

what I LOVE about these morons who come on here trying to 'taunt' us is that unwittingly (and lets face it, most of them have zero wits) they are promoting the crash.

The site is now ranked about 11,000th in the ENTIRE world, because thes enumpties keep on supplying fresh free content. And what do search engines love? Unique original content.

That's why HPC is rulin' the search engines for any number of property related terms, and why more and more people are coming here every day.

The fact that the threads start off with 'there wont be a crash' doesnt matter - these threads INSTANTLY turn into lucid explanations even a moronic estate agent could understand as to why the crash is upon us.

Thanks mongos! Keep 'writing articles' for HPC for free!!

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

Mark my words - debt will kill this 'miracle' economy. The only question is when.

Perfectly correct, when the growth in borrowing drops to zero the HM will come under extreme pressure.

[Given Up]

what I LOVE about these morons who come on here trying to 'taunt' us is that unwittingly (and lets face it, most of them have zero wits) they are promoting the crash.

The site is now ranked about 11,000th in the ENTIRE world, because thes enumpties keep on supplying fresh free content. And what do search engines love? Unique original content.

That's why HPC is rulin' the search engines for any number of property related terms, and why more and more people are coming here every day.

The fact that the threads start off with 'there wont be a crash' doesnt matter - these threads INSTANTLY turn into lucid explanations even a moronic estate agent could understand as to why the crash is upon us.

Thanks mongos! Keep 'writing articles' for HPC for free!!

Must have finished your homework early tonight.

[OurDayWillCome]

I'm afraid the denial is all coming from the bulls.

The market is finding ever more desperate ways of defying gravity, but I think we're starting to see all the endgames more clearly now.

Here’s a sketchy potted history of the last 6 years or so of lunacy for starters:

FTBs max possible mortgage unable to keep up with prices - lenders increase the multiples for FTBs.

BTL kicks off in a big way

FTB repayments starting to get horrendous - Lenders encourage interest only loans

House prices increase some more

BTL in full swing

FTB max possible mortgage falling short again - Lenders turn a blind eye to dodgy self certs

House prices increase some more

FTBs now dwindling - Government encourages shared equity schemes

House prices increase just that little bit more

BTL no longer profitable, landlords treading water

FTBs now desperate – lenders offer 45yr mortgages, and expect huge deposits

FTBs tell lenders exactly where they can stick their mortgage offers

So where do we go from here?

House prices go up

FTBs extinct

BTL now making a loss

Rents go up

Wages go up

Inflation goes up

Interest rates go up

BTL now making a loss again

Rents go up

Wages go up

Inflation goes up

Interest rates go up

Chinese and Indian economies tap GB plc on the shoulder and say “remember us”

Bull wakes up from dream in a cold sweat

Or how about this scenario…

House prices go up

FTBs extinct

BTL now making a loss

Rents go up

Wages can’t increase due to cheap foreign labour

Consumer spending collapses as all income spent on rent

Economy goes into recession

HPC!!!!

Or this one…

House prices stay static

IRs creep up very slowly

BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable

BTLs bail out

HPC!!!

Or how about…house prices achieve the mythical ‘soft landing’

IRs stay low

Inflation stays low

BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity

BTLers run out of capital for further purchases (not that there’s any point since there’s now no money to be made by increasing the portfolio)

FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy

Bottom end of market collapses

HPC!!!

So please, all the bulls out there – what mythical scenario am I missing where you all live happily ever after?

Come on then LookingAfterTheKids - where's your reply to this? It's spot on and anyone doubting a crash needs to look at the above!

Edited March 24, 2006 by OurDayWillCome