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Factories Upbeat On Prospects

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2099861,00.html

Factories upbeat on prospects

By Andrew Ellson

Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels.

In the CBI’s monthly industrial trends survey the balance of factories reporting order books above normal against those saying they were worse than usual improved to -16, the highest level since March 2005.

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Guest consa

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2099861,00.html

Factories upbeat on prospects

By Andrew Ellson

Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels.

In the CBI’s monthly industrial trends survey the balance of factories reporting order books above normal against those saying they were worse than usual improved to -16, the highest level since March 2005.

Overall the historical manufacturing employment in this country has been on the decline, so I wouldn't get too excited:

manufacturing4.gif

Edited by consa

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Overall the historical manufacturing employment in this country has been on the decline, so I wouldn't get too excited:

manufacturing4.gif

What is does show is that no one is expecting a recession, and things are picking up from last year.

Why, are you interested in showing me the historical manufacturing employment, and saying you wont get excited. (Confused)

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What is does show is that no one is expecting a recession, and things are picking up from last year.

Excellent. IR rise here we come. Yeah baby! <_<

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An improvement to -16 (from -18??) for the Order Books Comparison is not that much to get excited about.

If it goes into positive territory, then I will agree.

I thought that manufacturing contributed much less than the services industries, and as such will have a limited effect (either way) on UK PLC going into recession.

Without Gordon pumping shed loads more cash into the public sector, how will things pan out in the future?

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2099861,00.html

Factories upbeat on prospects

By Andrew Ellson

Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels.

In the CBI’s monthly industrial trends survey the balance of factories reporting order books above normal against those saying they were worse than usual improved to -16, the highest level since March 2005.

Improved to -16!! Blimey, It must have been pretty bad.

Anyway, with retail sales flagging and manufacturing picking up, could this signal the beginning of the long awaited rebalancing of the economy away from MEW and spend to earn and save, we've all been waiting for?

(Earning your money! - it's a novel idea, but it might just catch on!)

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Guest consa

What is does show is that no one is expecting a recession, and things are picking up from last year.

Thousands of jobs have been lost and it by no means says that "no-one is expecting a recession", things have improved slightly from years of redundancies and cutbacks may be more apt.

This is to show that manufacturing has been on the decline since the early 80's and a couple of months of positive order books figures hardly points to any remarkable turnaround, it's a bit like saying 2 months of falling house prices means there has been a crash :lol:

Why, are you interested in showing me the historical manufacturing employment, and saying you wont get excited.

And I'm easily excitable :)

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I doubt that, we are still below trend on growth.

So no point to this thread then? Especially as its in "Main Discussion forum on house prices"!!!!!!

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2099861,00.html

Factories upbeat on prospects

By Andrew Ellson

Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels.

In the CBI’s monthly industrial trends survey the balance of factories reporting order books above normal against those saying they were worse than usual improved to -16, the highest level since March 2005.

However, the CBI have no lost touch with reality as the article adds:

But he cautioned that high energy and raw material costs will continue to squeeze profit margins and the weakness on the high streets continues to be a problem.
"While there are grounds for optimism, life is still tough for manufacturers," he added.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2099861,00.html

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Thousands of jobs have been lost and it by no means says that "no-one is expecting a recession", things have improved slightly from years of redundancies and cutbacks may be more apt.

Does it really matter that manufacturing remains in the mire? Low-value, labour intensive manufacturing declined for a reason; it just wasn't economically viable to continue in the UK. Hence we switched to a service-orientated economy.

I believe agriculture took a bit of a battering after the industrial revolution :)

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Does it really matter that manufacturing remains in the mire? Low-value, labour intensive manufacturing declined for a reason; it just wasn't economically viable to continue in the UK. Hence we switched to a service-orientated economy.

Exactly, a service based economy, outsourcing our manufacturing to China et al, this is why the slight uptick over the past couple of months is irrellevant, if it was a couple of years growth that would be more interesting.

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"Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels."

I work in manufacturing and the above statement is at best a ******ing joke :ph34r:

At no time in my company in the last 15 years have we seen fewer orders or fewer prospective orders, the only thing stopping us from outright closure at the moment is incredibly charitable directors, and bank managers

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What is does show is that no one is expecting a recession, and things are picking up from last year.

Actually that's wrong.

I'm expecting a recession.

And I'm not alone in thinking the UK economy is taking a serious nose dive.

Here we have one of the UK's top fund managers warning about a slowdown in the economy:

Cyclical sectors typically perform well when the economy is on an upwards turn, but are first to catch a cold when the economy emabrks on a downwards cycle.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and...20&in_page_id=3

Maybe you also need to read "The Economist" article from June last year...

Another worrying lesson from abroad for America is that even a mere levelling-off of house prices can trigger a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. Take the Netherlands. In the late 1990s, the booming Dutch economy was heralded as a model of success. At the time, both house prices and household credit were rising at double-digit rates. The rate of Dutch house-price inflation then slowed from 20% in 2000 to nearly zero by 2003. This appeared to be the perfect soft landing: prices did not drop. Yet consumer spending declined in 2003, pushing the economy into recession, from which it has still not recovered.

http://www.economist.com/PrinterFriendly.c...tory_ID=4079027

Here's a speech from the Governor of the BOE, from October last year, it's well worth a read...

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...5/speech256.pdf

As I said two years ago in

Leicester: “The strategy which the Monetary Policy Committee has pursued in recent

years – stimulating domestic demand to compensate for weak external demand in the face

of a strong exchange rate – carries the risk that there could be a sharp correction to the

level of consumer spending at some point in the future.” That risk has, at least in part,

crystallised. Some of the influences that have in the past provided a boost to consumer

spending may be going in to reverse.

Yes.Reverse.

Quite frankly you have to be a fool not to be expecting a major slowdown in the economy, along with rising unemployment.

Whether it becomes a full blown recession we will have to wait and see.

Edited by BandWagon

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"Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels."

I work in manufacturing and the above statement is at best a ******ing joke :ph34r:

At no time in my company in the last 15 years have we seen fewer orders or fewer prospective orders, the only thing stopping us from outright closure at the moment is incredibly charitable directors, and bank managers

I work in manufacturing too , its the worst year that I can remember and were not a small company by any means. Manufacturing cut back to a few days a week due to lack of orders and propsects for the rest of the year look no better.

The statement "Further evidence emerged today that the UK’s beleaguered manufacturing sector appears to be slowly recovering with the second consecutive month of improving order book levels." is an absolute joke just trying to disguise the true facts.

Were entering recession now if not already in it. 2006 is going to be a year to remember.

Edited by Johnny

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Nice reporting K...O...N, but which area of manufacturing industry are you in ??

Forget about the CBI report - it says nothing (and I think you know it!). I can tell you from the coalface that things are bad.....very bad. My associates are struggling, our suppliers are struggling, our contractors are struggling, the companys on our site are struggling......

This goes way, way beyond the house prices debate and it's worrying.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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