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Realistbear

Just Released: U S Housing Figures

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http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Forex---Do...a_14730393.html

Forex - Dollar gets a boost from stronger-than-expected US data
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar got a boost after US housing market data came in
stronger than expected, indicating that interest rates in the country may well
have to rise further.
The dollar hit a 9-day high against both the euro and the pound in afternoon
trade after some strong US data.

Up go the rates! :D

Dollar up almost 100 points on the news to 1.734

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http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Forex---Do...a_14730393.html

Forex - Dollar gets a boost from stronger-than-expected US data
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar got a boost after US housing market data came in
stronger than expected, indicating that interest rates in the country may well
have to rise further.
The dollar hit a 9-day high against both the euro and the pound in afternoon
trade after some strong US data.

Up go the rates! :D

Dollar up almost 100 points on the news to 1.734

Sorry but for weeks and weeks now haven't you been posting how house prices in US are crashing? Surely you can not have it both ways??

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Sorry but for weeks and weeks now haven't you been posting how house prices in US are crashing? Sorry surely you can not have it both ways??

The prices seem to be falling only in the "froth" markets such as California and New England/Florida. Overall, the US is doing okay and the Fed will not spare the Froth as it continues to raise the rates. The Froth markets will continue to sink but the Fed apparently feel this will not harm the overall state of the nation. IMHO they are wrong if they are thinking that because HPC fever spreads everywhere. The Fed are not stupid and are probably accepting that a HPC is inevitable due to Al's overly accomodative IRs. The real problem is inflation caused by fuel costs and what do do about Japanese IR now that they are being factored into the equation.

The world is in quite a state of economic confusion with a lot of imbalances that are going to have to unwind. What amazes me is the quick changes we are seeing--one day IR are going down, the next its up. Someone is making sa fortune on the bond market swings that is for sure and the currency traders must also be liking it. The B o J appear to not know what they are doing but with inflation creeping into their land prices they have no choice but to raise the rates.

Here is another conundrum, rising prices set against dramatically falling sales:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/23032006/323/surpr...home-sales.html

The supply of unsold homes also rose 5.2 percent in February to 3.03 million, close to the record
of 3.04 million in 1986. The inventory represents 5.3 months' supply, unchanged from January.

What I think may be happening is that the stats are showing fewer higher priced homes selling--the rich are not as affected yet. Or, dare I say it, the data is being "Rigthmoved" here and there.

Edited by Realistbear

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The prices seem to be falling only in the "froth" markets such as California and New England/Florida. Overall, the US is doing okay and the Fed will not spare the Froth as it continues to raise the rates. The Froth markets will continue to sink but the Fed apparently feel this will not harm the overall state of the nation. IMHO they are wrong if they are thinking that because HPC fever spreads everywhere. The Fed are not stupid and are probably accepting that a HPC is inevitable due to Al's overly accomodative IRs. The real problem is inflation caused by fuel costs and what do do about Japanese IR now that they are being factored into the equation.

The world is in quite a state of economic confusion with a lot of imbalances that are going to have to unwind. What amazes me is the quick changes we are seeing--one day IR are going down, the next its up. Someone is making sa fortune on the bond market swings that is for sure and the currency traders must also be liking it. The B o J appear to not know what they are doing but with inflation creeping into their land prices they have no choice but to raise the rates.

With all due respect but if you admit to this blurred picture then how on earth can you continually be so sure of this massive HPC you foresee. Even so called "experts" do not seem to know what is going on? I am confused as hell because i read the business pages everyday........ and they have been very bullish today. But i know by tomorrow they could be saying what seems like the opposite.

And i would like to ask your opinion if you get chance on these 2 stories:

i know you often quote the telegraph, this is from today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...M3&targetRule=1

and how successful the "City" seems to be at this time: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....64&in_page_id=2

i was just pretty surprised to see these lastest US figures as read many of the reports you have quoted from. thanks.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Guest consa

A short lived rally: Profit taking

LONDON (AFX) - Leading shares remained weaker at midday, with disappointing earnings news from William Morrison and Next and profit-taking across the property sector pulling the FTSE back below the 6,000 level, dealers said.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

From today

Edited by consa

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With all due respect but if you admit to this blurred picture then how on earth can you continually be so sure of this massive HPC you foresee. Even so called "experts" do not seem to know what is going on? I am confused as hell because i read the business pages everyday........ :blink:

And i would like to ask your opinion if you get chance on these 2 stories:

i know you often quote the telegraph, this is from today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...M3&targetRule=1

and how successful the "City" seems to be at this time: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....64&in_page_id=2

i was just pretty surprised to see these lastest US figures as read many of the reports you have quoted from. thanks.

1.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?menuId=242&menuItemId=2839&view=DISPLAYCONTENT&grid=M3&targetRule=1

Scramble for property stocks sends equities through the roof
The FTSE 100 rose to a five-year high, boosted by bid speculation and the realisation that property stocks will benefit from the Budget.

Reality: The FTSE did not close at a 5 year high but fell back below 6000.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/23032006/214/londo...tsie-lower.html

Thursday March 23, 01:49 PM

London afternoon:
Property slide tips Footsie lower
LONDON (ShareCast) - It's proving tough for London's top stocks to hold the 6,000 level as sellers trim yesterday's Budget-inspired gains in the property sector, cancelling an advance by leading miners.

2. The Daily Mail link simply shows that Gordon is bringing in more experts to help him solve the problems we have all be airing on this site. Remember that he brought Al Greenspan in last month although we have yet to hear from the man who saved us from recession after 9/11 only to give the world HPI today.

The confusion I see is the inability of Gordon to move one way or the other because lowering IR will stoke inflation and raising rates will bring on the HPC that much sooner. If anything, he will have to raise the rates to keep up with the rest of the world and to pay the Japanese back when their higher IR filter through to the UK Banks. The markets seem confused because of mixed signals that appear to change from day to day. It could be massive market manipulation as I cannot see how the US can go from inflationary trends to deflationary over the course of a week. IMHO the direction remains the same as it has for several months--inflationary and that is why they will continue to raise the rates.

The US house market is probably behaving erratically due to the erratic weather conditions and the mixed signals the market is reading into the Fed and IR policy. Overall, the market is sinking as indicated by the record low mortgage lending this week--lowest for 4 years. ASctual medians are dropping sharply in California as I have been tracking the data on www.sandicor.com which gives all the sales data for every house that has actually sold in the area together with medians, days on market etc. "Asking prices" are completely ignored as they should be--a total irrelevance. A wonderful resource and something we need here to avoid using BS data from the VIs.

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Someone is making sa fortune on the bond market swings that is for sure and the currency traders must also be liking it. The B o J appear to not know what they are doing but with inflation creeping into their land prices they have no choice but to raise the rates.

Can't speak for the bond traders but the FX markets recently have been dogged by periods of nothingness follwed by a comparatively large rapid surge in directions not immediately expected or anticipated, at least by me.

EUR/$ daily volatility bouncing around 2 year lows recently before a day like today gives it a kick.

G-Man

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http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j.../23/ixcoms.html

No mercy now, no bail-out later

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 23/03/2006)

As Ben Bernanke knows all too well, monetary policy is like pulling a brick across a rough wooden table with a piece of elastic. Tug, tug, tug: nothing happens. Tug a little harder: it leaps off the surface and knocks your teeth out.

:lol::lol::lol:

Seriously though:

"How would you like to be responsible for an economy that's dependent upon $700bn (£400bn) of foreign money every year? I don't know what I would do about it, but he's going to have to do something about it sooner or later," Mr Volcker said.
Whatever his inner doubts, Mr Bernanke seems bent on pushing full steam ahead with interest rate rises, and damn the torpedoes.
In a speech to the Economic Club of New York this week, he said he would not let a faltering housing market deter him from the necessary action to wring inflation out of the system
.
Fellow governor Donald Kohn hammered home the Fed's hawkish strategy in blunter language during a speech in Frankfurt. "If real estate prices begin to erode, homeowners should not expect to see all of the gains of recent years preserved by monetary policy actions," he said.
Early signs of stress are already showing at the edges, from Iceland, to Egypt, Turkey and Hungary. However, the
American housing boom is now the mother of all bubbles
- in sheer volume, if not in degrees of speculative madness.

Gordon should do likewise and raise the rates before he is forced to do so. Fix it before it breaks completely.

Edited by Realistbear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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