Is The Spring Bouncer Over Already?

[jon]

Here's a graph of the asking prices from RightMove in a 20 mile radius of my postcode in mid-Cheshire, that I've been collecting since the end of last year.

The simple mean average crept up for a couple of months, but turned a corner this week.

So is the Spring Bounce already over this year?

Keep in mind the following when looking at this graph :

- It uses current asking prices, not initial asking prices.

- It uses all properties in the area, not just those added within the last month.

- It includes the erroneous entries and "grouped together" properties in the averages.

- The last time period is a week instead of the usual month.

- Notice how the median hasn't really moved in quite a while. A better indicator of house prices?

- Notice how many properties are flying ON to the shelves?

Link

Source : www.rightmove.co.uk

[AteMoose]

Here's a graph of the asking prices from RightMove in a 20 mile radius of my postcode in mid-Cheshire, that I've been collecting since the end of last year.

The simple mean average crept up for a couple of months, but turned a corner this week.

So is the Spring Bounce already over this year?

Keep in mind the following when looking at this graph :

- It uses current asking prices, not initial asking prices.

- It uses all properties in the area, not just those added within the last month.

- It includes the erroneous entries and "grouped together" properties in the averages.

- The last time period is a week instead of the usual month.

- Notice how the median hasn't really moved in quite a while. A better indicator of house prices?

- Notice how many properties are flying ON to the shelves?

Link

Source : www.rightmove.co.uk

Would love more data, spring bounce normally occurs over/after easter people want a place to call home, they have time off work, and its sunny....

Edited March 23, 2006 by moosetea

[vinny]

Here's a graph of the asking prices from RightMove in a 20 mile radius of my postcode in mid-Cheshire, that I've been collecting since the end of last year.

The simple mean average crept up for a couple of months, but turned a corner this week.

So is the Spring Bounce already over this year?

Keep in mind the following when looking at this graph :

- It uses current asking prices, not initial asking prices.

- It uses all properties in the area, not just those added within the last month.

- It includes the erroneous entries and "grouped together" properties in the averages.

- The last time period is a week instead of the usual month.

- Notice how the median hasn't really moved in quite a while. A better indicator of house prices?

- Notice how many properties are flying ON to the shelves?

Link

Source : www.rightmove.co.uk

Not withstanding some of your excellent points you ask to keep in mind:

-----Price falling to flat with rising volume is IMO bearish if anything------

[Xil]

Here's a graph....

<Snip>

Link

Source : www.rightmove.co.uk

jon,

Great graph for those people wondering what is happening with the market up to this very moment. I won't take a lot of notice of the figures but the sentiment is valid.

I posted a thread a couple of weeks ago asking whether the spring bounce had come and gone. Not sure people quite understood what I was asking because the replies were slightly confusing.

For my immediate area (and it is a much smaller area than your analysis takes in) I would say that there was a surge of activity in January that fell away in February and we are back to the very quiet days of last autumn. However, I still anticipate more activity when the sun eventually starts shining so I don't think the spring bounce has come and gone. We might end up with an early and late spring bounce this year. Both relatively mild in their impact on house prices.

What I do anticipate is that the sunshine will bring out the time wasters and there will be a rise in activity that can be attributed to people purely 'fishing' the market - ie they will put their houses on with an agent at inflated prices and get little or no interest in them. By the summer they will be thinking about their holidays and decide that they don't want to sell afterall and the houses will disappear again.

Big deal? No, not really. But it will give Rightmove the ammunition to say that asking prices "are rising at their fastest rate for 2 years" or some such nonsense. Transaction volumes will continue to fall but the media will be able to ramp the market based on the asking prices of people who have no real chance of selling their houses.

I think we've been seeing a similar effect for a few years now.

Xil.

[gruffydd]

The market here in Ceredigion revived and now price reductions are appearing yet again.

[JBeau]

All had been quiet....and then the day before the budget, budget day itself, and today....emails and phonecalls from agents. Instant £10K reductions over the phone.

How desperate is that? There is no spring bounce heh heh

[teddyboy]

Well I think its either losing momentum or its over.

WHISTLEBLOWERS may have had a an effect also:

ANECDOTE:

Guy in work today has had his flat on the market for 6 weeks at £96,000 with Sykes Waterhouse, Bebington.

Where he lives the last sold was £68K and one for £85k was up and withdrawn a few months ago.

Anyway, after many promises of it will 'fly of the shelf' and false promises he gave them hell!

Well this morning, he got a call:

"Hello is that Mr. X", "Its Simon from SW, Bebington. I am the New Manager"

"Whats happened to the old manager?"

"Well she's been sacked"

"Oh, fair really coz she was crap"

<snigger>

"The reason I am phoning you is because I know you are not happy and I can only apologise for the actions of the previous manageress. The reason I believe your flat is not selling is because it is OVERPRICED"

I can tell you that one sold in January for £89K. I know because I sold it when I worked for HUYTON-ROBERTS (Small Independent)."

"So what dya suggest?"

"Well if you wanted to PULL IT - I would understand, But in reality I think that we should market at £92K and see what happens, but expect an offer as low as £88K. If we get nothing at £92K then we'll drop it to £90K and say offers invited"

He then went on to say that "NOTHING is selling at the moment. Even if yours was priced competitively it's still a TOUGH MARKET.

The thing that ran through my mind was has WHISTLEBLOWERS dented consumer confidence in Estate Agents? Or is this just coincidence? The fact that RM saying 'flying off shelves' has been proven to be BS! There is NO CREDIBILITY in the industry at the moment and I can see some EA's TALKING THE MARKET DOWN!

It really is tough out there for A LOT of areas. I think come late summer - we willl see BIG REDUCTIONS.

Lets hope so

TB

JON,

Yet again, great work your doing.

Edited March 23, 2006 by teddyboy