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Bloomberg: Brown Preparing For Office

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http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...CLSM&refer=home

Brown, Preparing for Power, Sets Rift With Cameron (Update3)

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, aiming to take over from Prime Minister Tony Blair, sought support for a budget that marks out divisions between his Labour Party and the Conservative opposition.

Yesterday's budget channeled 765 million pounds ($1.3 billion) to schools, 100 million pounds to police and 365 million pounds to support families over the next three years. Brown will recoup the money by clamping down on gas guzzlers, securities dealers and people who attempt to dodge taxes.

...

No mention of shared equity, it's being kept quite low profile really isn't it.

How long till he's in, I reckon by May... any bets out there?

Go beat Brown up, metaphorically and purely verbally of course, at his budget website and feedback form.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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As HPCs very own Labour stooge, I will report from the coal face.

The mood towards the PM is not terribly positive in much of the Party, and campaigners for May's local elections are thin on the ground, and are not positive at all about the likely outcome. (There is little perceived support for Cameron's Tories amongst those we do meet on the doorstep either, so don't take HPCs Tory bias as representative of anything).

Most supporters, certainly in my area (NW London), would like Blair to go soon, before Conferenece in September. Most think Gordon Brown will do a better job, be more trusted and more "Labour". The tipping point will be the local elections. If labour do very badly, Blair's position will become more difficult to hold. The perception is that Brown helped Blair out in the General election last year, and that Blair is now becoming a liability.

I should say that, unlike Mrs T, Blair has never been loved in the Labour Party. Respected, yes, but he has never had a tribal hold on most members, or MPs come to that. Gordon Brown has and it should make it easier to unite a demoralised Party.

My own view is that, much as I would like Blair to resign tomorrow, the denouement will come shortly after the May elections. Of course, any more bad new in Iraq, or on the Party loans front will be very, very grave for Blair.

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My own view is that, much as I would like Blair to resign tomorrow, the denouement will come shortly after the May elections. Of course, any more bad new in Iraq, or on the Party loans front will be very, very grave for Blair.

It crossed my mind the other night perhaps the loans thing might have been leaked by pro-Brown supporters?

Obviously it looks bad for the party but it's mid term and it makes Blair look awful. Funnily enough Brown, Prescott et al get off relatively scot free.

No chance they might move before May then, get a pro Brown upswing?

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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It crossed my mind the other night perhaps the loans thing might have been leaked by pro-Brown supporters?

Obviously it looks bad for the party but it's mid term and it makes Blair look awful. Funnily enough Brown, Prescott et al get off relatively scot free.

No chance they might move before May then, get a pro Brown upswing?

Funnily enough I don't thin Brown had anything to do with leaking the loans info. I think it was genuine arrogance on the part of Number 10, who have lost touch with reality and real world perceptions.

I think it will be very difficut to remove Blair before May, even though it would IMO certainly improve Labour's performance in the local elections.

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Funnily enough I don't thin Brown had anything to do with leaking the loans info.

Indeed, the fact that the consumer is now in hoc to the tune of £1.2t seems to be lost on him, so there's scarce chance he would notice a few million quid in loans to the Labour party.

I think it will be very difficut to remove Blair before May, even though it would IMO certainly improve Labour's performance in the local elections.

What local elections? Following the shock byelection in Dunfermline they were planning to scrap (local) elections. <_<

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Funnily enough I don't thin Brown had anything to do with leaking the loans info. I think it was genuine arrogance on the part of Number 10, who have lost touch with reality and real world perceptions.

I think it will be very difficut to remove Blair before May, even though it would IMO certainly improve Labour's performance in the local elections.

So the question is... who did leak it, i.e. who do I write to thank :lol:

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It was more a matter of Jack Dromey, Labour teasure discovering what had been done without his knowledge, and being incandescent. it would have hit the press anyway.

Personally i don't think most politicians in the UK are corrupt (see posts passim). Neither is the political process - certainly in comparison with other countries. The Tories and Lib Dems have kept v. quiet because they do the same things, but will less flak in oppositon.

Number 10 look especially bad because Labour set out rules to clean up political funding, and then circumvented their own new rules. That sticks in my craw.

Blair and the New Labourites are too excited by money and status. this is one reason why a Son of the Manse, a dour Scot, has appeal. His (relative) lack of spin is more persuasive than TB or DC.

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IMHO the knives are out for TB. The Budget Speech was Gordon's debut as "the candidate" and although it was a lot about nothing it was clear that he was moving on from No. 11. How soon? Quicker than TB thought. The loans scandal is seeing CEO's resign and the police are lurking--all bad news for the PM who may have to resign before it breaks out.

Its good news for HPCers because Gordon has about 1% of the leadership ability of TB and less than that in the charisma department. He has followed Al down the HPI road to riches and its all coming home to roost quicker than they imagined.

A few weeks ago I didn't think Gordon would make it into No. 10 but with the loans scnadal brewing all bets are off. However, Teflon Tony may get away with it and keep Gordon waiting a bit longer.

But who really cares. NULabour have run up a huge debt that we are all going to be paying off for years to come and I doubt the Tories will be able to bale us out any quicker than a competent chancellor.

So its go to cash, sit back and enjoy the crash and begin looking for a nice house sometime in 2008.

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The tipping point will be the local elections. If labour do very badly, Blair's position will become more difficult to hold.

I think Tony will be shrewd enough to keep Gordon very close in the run up to the May vote - expect another TB/GB lurve-in - that way, when NuLab bomb at the polls - Tony can pass the blame to Flash Gordon

Not sure if Flash will be that much of a vote winner anyway, it's not like he did the party any favours in the last by election, and that was in his own backyard :lol::lol:

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However, Teflon Tony may get away with it and keep Gordon waiting a bit longer.

The real question is: if Brown moves into Number 10, who will be handed the poison chalice in Number 11 as the economy falls apart around him?

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The real question is: if Brown moves into Number 10, who will be handed the poison chalice in Number 11 as the economy falls apart around him?

I saw Hoon mentioned on TV for the job, can't remember where. Lucky old him eh.

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In Gordon's Treasury, I have a feeling Alistair Darling is in the running.

Other posters having a go at the Gordon Brown's performance as Chancellor have to recognise that 10 years consecutive growth is not an accident. I do not agree with all of Brown's policies, but I do remember the Thatcher years, and three (3!!) recessions, and 3 million unemployed, etc. Labour has at least some some commitment to social justice and I thank GB for that.

Yes he has house price inflation wrong, and, IMO, if he could manage a mini crash (-20-30%) taking the "froth" of the last couple of years off prices, the whole economy, and Labour's prospects, would brighten.

I find the thought of George Osborne in No. 11 hilarious, and think even more "free market" policies lunatic. I've got my disappointment in early with Gordon Brown. i expect more of the same but slightly, ever so slightly, to the left.

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Other posters having a go at the Gordon Brown's performance as Chancellor have to recognise that 10 years consecutive growth is not an accident.

Yes it is. It's due to ten years of artificially low interest rates around the world, and little to do with Brown's polices (other than of running artificially low interest rates himself).

A monkey can create economic growth by setting interest rates 4-5% below real inflation. The Tories didn't do it because it's insane.

Labour has at least some some commitment to social justice and I thank GB for that.

You call pricing an entire generation out of the housing market 'social justice'? I'd hate to see what you think is injustice in that case.

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I have to agree with MarkG. Gordon's "Miracle Economy" has been underwritten by world IR policies not of his own making. Riding on the coat tails of his mentor Big "Al" Greenspan, there is little show for the growth other than hyper inflation in the non-discretionaries such as houses and fuel costs. A whole generation has indeed suffered at the hands of NuLabour policies of high house prices to fund growth driving MEW.

Gordon has done little more than follow Al down the yellow brick road of endless growth based on endless borrowing at ever decreasing IR. True, Al got us past 9/11 without an international melt down but the imbalances have been building ever since courtesy of the B o J and their bargain priced credit. Now its time to pay the piper and quick as a flash the "Miracle Economy" turns into a large and rather heavy millstone that the next couple of generations will be paying for dearly.

If Gordon wants to be PM he has very little time to enjoy it because the long bony finger of blame will point him out wherever he goes.

Edited by Realistbear

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Yes it is. It's due to ten years of artificially low interest rates around the world, and little to do with Brown's polices (other than of running artificially low interest rates himself).

A monkey can create economic growth by setting interest rates 4-5% below real inflation. The Tories didn't do it because it's insane.

You call pricing an entire generation out of the housing market 'social justice'? I'd hate to see what you think is injustice in that case.

I remember the Tories in the 80s and 90s. Recession was due to the international economic climate, but any boom was down to them alone. As always MarkG, economic success is a mixture of both.

And if you're talking insane policies, 364 economists weren't wrong about Geoffrey Howe. Monetarism stank then and stinks now. If only Gordon had the nerve to be more...Keynesian. We'll see. The neocon experiment has to come to an end some time soon.

Still I don't think most Conservatives even understand the concept of social justice. Deserving rich, undeserving poor, markets rule, on yer bike, etc. Not my cup of tea, but do you have a better defintion?

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If Brown becomes PM, then could they move some fall guy into the chancellor's job, let the markets correct themselves, and blame him/her?

As in "everything was going swimmingly while Brown was in charge".

Billy Shears

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Still I don't think most Conservatives even understand the concept of social justice.

I'm no great fan of Thatcher, but there was far more 'social justice' under the Tories than NuLab.

As we were discussing a few days ago, it's much harder for a working class kid to progress to the middle class today than it was in the 80s, and they won't even be able to afford a house. Where's the 'social justice' in that?

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I'm no great fan of Thatcher, but there was far more 'social justice' under the Tories than NuLab.

As we were discussing a few days ago, it's much harder for a working class kid to progress to the middle class today than it was in the 80s, and they won't even be able to afford a house. Where's the 'social justice' in that?

You conventiently forget that the financial situation that many find themselves in today is a direct result of the consumerist "greed is good" philosophy encouraged by the Tories and in particular Thatcher. Thatcher introduced monetarism into the UK, a philosophy that says that the market will resolve any financial situation eventually. This led to financial deregulation where previously under Keynsian economics we had intervention in the market when things started to get out of control.

Edited by nodumsunreader

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The thing that realy gets me with all this is

the electorate voted blair in, though i know we aint a presidency we still mainly at the elections vote for the person more often than the party.So i see this as basically getting a prime minister that we didint even vote for.

hes gonna just be another john major anyhow but thats not the point is it.

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So its go to cash, sit back and enjoy the crash and begin looking for a nice house sometime in 2008.

Enjoy the crash?? A crash will be accompanied by recession and all that goes with it. House prices might be lower but I don't think there will be much to enjoy.

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Enjoy the crash?? A crash will be accompanied by recession and all that goes with it. House prices might be lower but I don't think there will be much to enjoy.

That much is true. But people can protect themselves from what they ought to know is coming. Sell leveraged assets and anything that is interest rate sensitive. BTLs will suffer most as they are already giving poor returns on capital and in a recession rents are going nowehere but down as unemployment rises. STR if you can if an IR surge will make you homeless. Renting is not that bad and it is cheaper than owning while a crash proceeds. It will not be an overnight thing (although some say it could be due to the level of inflation in house prices and the intense IR sensitivity due to amount of indebtedness) and it will be from hindsight that we will see the full extent of the correction.

So, if you want to enjoy the crash go to cash. Save what you can to get you through the lean times and hunker down as best as you can.

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If Brown becomes PM, then could they move some fall guy into the chancellor's job, let the markets correct themselves, and blame him/her?

As in "everything was going swimmingly while Brown was in charge".

Billy Shears

I was wondering whether TB may deliberately be hanging onto office long enough to get into a significant economic downturn. Reiterating his 'no more boom and bust' in his budget speech, Brown would lose enormous credibility if still at no. 11 when/if sentiment changes.

Agreed, NuLab would also lose face, but if Brown were seen as a lame duck chancellor, might TB then be 'persuaded' to carry on the fight? Assuming he isn't sunk by the current overhyped loans issue, of course.

TLM

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House prices might be lower but I don't think there will be much to enjoy.

I don't know. We can all go watch TTRTR in bankruptcy court.

At a minimum, people might find something more interesting to talk about than BTL and their new MEWed BMW.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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