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Ireland To Boom For 15 More Years

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One million immigrants to fuel boom for 15 years

Report predicts 5m population,6pc annual growth and 3m cars

Brendan Keenan

Group Business Editor

A MILLION immigrants over the next 15 years could swell the population to more than five million by 2020 and keep the economy and the housing market booming.

The foreign-born population is probably at 400,000 already, and makes up one in eight of the workforce.

In a major new long-term forecast, NCB Stockbrokers say the fastest-growing sectors of the economy will be the savings industry, hotels and restaurants, cars and computers as Ireland's baby boomers reach prime earning and spending age from now to 2020.

The optimistic outlook emerges from a new analysis of the population on which NCB's economists worked with the Central Statistics Office.

Among the findings are:

The population will grow by almost a third and immigrants could make up one in five of residents by 2020.

The number of cars on the road will almost double to 3m. An extra 700,000 dwellings will be needed to house the expanding population of working age.

The Irish economy will far outstrip the rest of the EU, with the potential to grow by more than 5pc a year over the period.

"Ireland's labour force structure is radically different from the rest of the EU," said NCB chief economist Dermot O'Brien.

"Theirs is going to decline over the next 40 years, and at an accelerating pace, while ours continues to increase."

The report argues that better economic prospects in Ireland will draw in more immigrants, and this in turn will spur faster growth.

"We expect immigration to account for half the population growth between now and 2020," said NCB economist Eunan King.

The new analysis challenges the perception that most immigrants are employed in building or semi-skilled areas like meat processing.

Instead, the biggest proportion are working in professional jobs. Less than 10pc of unskilled workers are foreign-born, compared with 15pc of professionals.

"The immigrants coming here have more third-level qualifications than the Irish-born population," Mr King said. "That is adding to the productivity of the economy. But there is no doubt the numbers we are forecasting will have significant implications for all aspects of society."

The present immigrant population is made up more of family units than single people, the research finds.

The average size of an immigrant household is just under three people - not much different from that of the Irish-born population. Only in Dublin and Cork cities did the report find a significantly larger number of single-person households.

Based on their forecasts, NCB see continued strong demand for housing. Over 40pc of the 100,000 immigrant households in 2002 were in rented accommodation. But 34pc were buying on a mortgage, which was not much less than the 38pc of Irish families.

Forecasts

"We expect the demand for housing to be about 65,000 units per year until 2015, then slowing to 55,000 a year until 2020," Mr O'Brien said.

He sees no reason for house prices to fall, although prices should slow to the same rate as incomes - 5pc to 7pc a year - if the market is to stabilise.

"I do not see what could threaten the housing market.

"The eurozone cannot support interest rates much above 4pc so there is no danger there.

"We have already seen the resilience of the Irish economy after the global downturn in 2001, when employment just kept on growing."

Even if immigration slowed to zero, the country will need more than 40,000 new houses a year.

And the growth in population of working age means the number of cars on the road will rise by at least 600,000, and probably by 1.5 million, the report says.

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I hear that all those immigrants from poorer nations are coming to Ireland with bags stuffed with 300k EU to buy one bedroom flats because no one is going to pay them the kind of wages they will need to be a property owner OR a renter! :lol:

Reality is that the Irish economy is overheated and business will begin to leave as the taxes rise and make it more profitable to do business elsewhere. Nothing lasts forever.

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Boom for 15 more years my rosy red ****.

This report gives no real reasons why this should happen, and no substantial analysis of the risks facing the economy. It's simply projecting current trends into the future and assuming all proceeds as before.

Flippant dismissal of rising IRs

No mention of the shocking rises in costs (0.7% inflation in Feb, wasn't it)

No mention of oil prices

No mention of the scary levels of indebtedness (see recent David McWilliams articles)

Blatant spin. Pah.

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There are huge assumptions in this sort of report. There was a similar one for the UK published a couple of weeks ago - it seemed to assume that the flow of immigrants from E. Europe was an absolute constant, which is ****** IMHO. E. Europe will become much more prosperous after a few years of EU membership, reducing the need for someone to migrate from nice cities with nice summers in Czech/Slovak/Romania to dismal dormitory towns over here. Also, as Eurozone growth picks up, the UK will soon become a less favoured destination compared to Germany or France.

And as world IRs climb, we either follow or the £ tanks...and all of a sudden the £50 a week getting sent back to Olga and the kids starts to translate to a lot less zlotskies back home.

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Flippant dismissal of rising IRs

No mention of the shocking rises in costs (0.7% inflation in Feb, wasn't it)

No mention of oil prices

No mention of the scary levels of indebtedness (see recent David McWilliams articles)

Blatant spin. Pah.

But they do have immigrants – ask Tony – lot’s immigrants = no boom or bust just massive growth forever

There are huge assumptions in this sort of report. There was a similar one for the UK published a couple of weeks ago - it seemed to assume that the flow of immigrants from E. Europe was an absolute constant, which is ****** IMHO. E. Europe will become much more prosperous after a few years of EU membership, reducing the need for someone to migrate from nice cities with nice summers in Czech/Slovak/Romania to dismal dormitory towns over here. Also, as Eurozone growth picks up, the UK will soon become a less favoured destination compared to Germany or France.

And as world IRs climb, we either follow or the £ tanks...and all of a sudden the £50 a week getting sent back to Olga and the kids starts to translate to a lot less zlotskies back home.

The £ in my opinion is not going to tank – just like they are not going to stop handouts for the poor / unemployed which will make the UK one of the most popular destinations for many years to come

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The reason the guest workers are here now is because the Irish are having a party. A very big party. Ireland is now the most indebted nation in Europe, foreign direct investment has fallen for four years and continues to fall, productivity is falling and manufacturing employment is falling by about 10,000 jobs per annum.

The Irish are building furnishing and financing between 75,000 and 80,000 new homes every year. We are building new homes at four times the rate of the rest of Europe. What would the UK be like if you were building 1,200,000 new homes every year? not just one year, every year. The Irish economy is the housing market, indebtednesses and associated spin offs.

But the hangover, the hangover.

<_<

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The reason the guest workers are here now is because the Irish are having a party. A very big party. Ireland is now the most indebted nation in Europe, foreign direct investment has fallen for four years and continues to fall, productivity is falling and manufacturing employment is falling by about 10,000 jobs per annum.

The Irish are building furnishing and financing between 75,000 and 80,000 new homes every year. We are building new homes at four times the rate of the rest of Europe. What would the UK be like if you were building 1,200,000 new homes every year? not just one year, every year. The Irish economy is the housing market, indebtednesses and associated spin offs.

But the hangover, the hangover.

<_<

The immigrants bring no money earn poor money and spend no money in the country, and that helps the country how?

Nearly all the jobs for Polish Paul and Latvian Lucas are in construction, so in an ironic way both the chicken and the egg will disappear at the same time.

Ireland will have a 15 year recession starting late 2007 or early 2008 and housing will lead the way down.

Boom for 15 more years my rosy red ****.

This report gives no real reasons why this should happen, and no substantial analysis of the risks facing the economy. It's simply projecting current trends into the future and assuming all proceeds as before.

Flippant dismissal of rising IRs

No mention of the shocking rises in costs (0.7% inflation in Feb, wasn't it)

No mention of oil prices

No mention of the scary levels of indebtedness (see recent David McWilliams articles)

Blatant spin. Pah.

This from the Examiner today a little more realistic:

23/03/06

‘Economy like a bird flying on one wing’

By Brian O’Mahony Chief Business Correspondent

CHIEF economist with Friends First Jim Power has described the economy as akin “to a bird flying on one wing” due to its huge exposure to the construction sector and the housing market.

Mr Power said consumers were gripped by irrational exuberance as consumer spending has gone back up to levels reminiscent of the Celtic Tiger at its height.

In contrast to the boom forecasts from the NCB Stockbrokers report, also published yesterday, Mr Power, in his quarterly economic review, warned the boom figures published by economists have very little meaning for indigenous firms struggling to survive.

“The indigenous manufacturing sector has shed more than 9,000 jobs from 2003-2005. It is time policymakers support this sector by supporting investment in marketing activities, R&D and product innovation.

“The cost base also has to be controlled and the State cannot continue to feed into the rising cost base of Irish business. “Our policymakers need to ensure that a sustainable indigenous economy is created alongside the housing sector and the public sector,” he said.

His stance was supported by one of the leading professional bodies in the country. The Professional Insurance Brokers Association (PIBA) “strongly support economist Jim Power’s view of the economy, PIBA chairman Tommy Coyne said.

“It is heartening to hear such a powerful call for policymakers to create a sustainable indigenous economy and alleviate the economy’s over- dependence on the construction sector.”

Speaking at the launch of the Quarterly Economic Outlook, Mr Power said Irish housing stock was currently valued at about €530 billion and represents a significant level of personal wealth.

Given the high level of home ownership in Ireland and the value of the housing stock, the fortunes of the market have a significant effect on consumer confidence and consumer spending.

“A significant correction to house prices would have a substantial negative wealth effect on consumer confidence and would undermine the overall economy,” he warned.

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"The eurozone cannot support interest rates much above 4pc so there is no danger there.

Classic. :lol::lol::lol:

How is there no danger, when every .25pc rise increases your monthly mortgage payment by 60 Euro?

Dermot, I fancy you will eat those ill chosen words.

Kildare Nationalist view on the Irish Housing Market

http://www.kildare-nationalist.ie/news/story.asp?j=22405

Edited by Flash

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I'd love to see one immigrant trying to symaltaniously drive three cars (1m immigrants & 3m cars?).

I'd pay to see that. :lol:

There are some non-immigrants in Ireland too. We call them 'Irish people'. Contrary to popular belief, some of them own cars :)

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There are some non-immigrants in Ireland too. We call them 'Irish people'. Contrary to popular belief, some of them own cars :)

Ahh, so they be those lunatics paying €4m for 60's semi's? :)

Don't spoil my bizarre day dreams.

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Ahh, so they be those lunatics paying €4m for 60's semi's? :)

Don't spoil my bizarre day dreams.

No, it's the leprechauns buying the €4m semis, they've all sold their pots of gold during the recent gold bull market. It's them funding the overseas developments too.

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This is just Irish if you ask me..................

Reminds me of a Joke,

Irish Astronauts were set to man a landing on the Sun, NASA officials told them they were crazy, that they would burn up well before they even landed on the Sun.

The Irish chuckled "See, that's were your wrong!, were going in at night!"

:ph34r:

Edited by A Fool & His Borrowed Money

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The Irish economy, like the Spanish, is a basket case due to having far too low interest rates. Everyone I know in Spain is in debt up to their eyeballs. It's worse than here.

I pity these 2 countries for the pain they will have to go through in the next few years.

Germany needed lower interest rates, and that's what Germany got at the cost of these countries overheating.

Now Germany is gradually needing higher interest rates and that is what Germany will get. Why do you think the ECB is in Frankfurt? Ireland and Spain are just cannon fodder.

As for immigration, Ireland will be a net exporter again before too long.

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If only it were that simple!.......If a high rate of immigration were a panacea to huge growth and development why haven't even the traditional immigration countries eg US , Canada and Australia ramped up immigration over the years to benefit from it?

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If only it were that simple!.......If a high rate of immigration were a panacea to huge growth and development why haven't even the traditional immigration countries eg US , Canada and Australia ramped up immigration over the years to benefit from it?

Australia has ramped up immigration over the last decade or so.

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Canada does have high immigration and a huge degree of job displacement - many highly qualified people end up driving taxis etc...

Thats not a myth - the competition for jobs is brutal and there is a net surplus for many even highly skilled jobs. Many have to take two jobs - as nightworkers etc.. just to survive.

Employers can thus abitrarly discriminate, picking a choosing from a desperate labour pool.

The other side of the coin is the large public sector, british-style economy supporting around 1 in 5 workers ina bloated public sector, who earn 40% more than the average worker competing with immigrants. (StatCan.ca)

Edited by brainclamp

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This is just Irish if you ask me..................

Reminds me of a Joke,

Irish Astronauts were set to man a landing on the Sun, NASA officials told them they were crazy, that they would burn up well before they even landed on the Sun.

The Irish chuckled "See, that's were your wrong!, were going in at night!"

:ph34r:

LOL

or the news report today about irelands biggest aviation disaster.

A 2 seater light aircraft crashed into a dublin cemetry this afternoon.

Irish search and rescue teams have so far recovered over 240 bodies and will be digging throughout the night as they expect the death toll to rise further.

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LOL

or the news report today about irelands biggest aviation disaster.

A 2 seater light aircraft crashed into a dublin cemetry this afternoon.

Irish search and rescue teams have so far recovered over 240 bodies and will be digging throughout the night as they expect the death toll to rise further.

Careful don, don't go making enemies of HPCers.

And you wouldn't like him when he's angry. ;)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p?showuser=3907

Edited by Flash

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An English man and an Irish man are driving, at night, on a twisty, dark road in Donegal. Both are driving too fast for the conditions and collide on a sharp bend in the road. To the amazement of both, they are unscathed, though their cars are both destroyed.

In celebration of their luck, both agree to put aside their dislike for the other from that moment on. At this point, the Irish man goes to the boot and fetches a 12 year old bottle of Jameson whiskey.

He hands the bottle to the English man, whom exclaims, ''May the English and the Irish live together forever, in peace, and harmony.'' The English man then tips the bottle and lashes half of it down.

Still flabbergasted over the whole thing, he goes to hand the bottle to the Irish man, who replies ''No thanks, I'll just wait till the Gardai get here.''

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LOL

or the news report today about irelands biggest aviation disaster.

A 2 seater light aircraft crashed into a dublin cemetry this afternoon.

Irish search and rescue teams have so far recovered over 240 bodies and will be digging throughout the night as they expect the death toll to rise further.

Paddy Irishman, Paddy Englishman and Paddy Jamacian are all in the maternity hospital when the matron comes out and says "Im terribly sorry theres a mix up and we want you to identify your new babies".

Paddy Irishman is first in and points immediately to the dark skinned child. The embarrased gynaecologist, mutters"Ahem ,I hope you dont mind me saying this but, we didn't really expect that one to be yours"

Dont care says Paddy,one of dem two over dere is english.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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