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Realistbear

It Has Begun: Land Prices Already Rising In Japan

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http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

TOKYO (AFX) - The average price of land in Tokyo rose for the first time in 15 years in 2005, according to an annual government survey, a strong sign Japan is emerging from years of deflation.
An annual survey conducted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport showed that the average price of residential property in Tokyo rose 0.8 pct in 2005 while the average price of commercial land increased 2.9 pct from a year earlier.
The survey also found that both commercial and residential land prices rose in all 23 central wards in Tokyo, which means that
property values have already started to recover
in key urban markets where prices fell the most following the bursting in the late 1980s and early 1990s of Japan's asset-inflation bubble.
"
The survey clearly shows that the Japanese economy is now witnessing easing deflationary pressure, and that the overrated deflation in asset prices is now set for a correction,"
Daiwa Institute of Research senior economist Junichi Makino said.

This is another warning folks! This unwinding of the Yen carry trade is happening at an alarming rate and now that momentum for growth has been unleashed its going to happen very quickly. IMHO we are going to see higher IR within weeks, not months.

This really deserves an awooga of generous proportion to the size of the threat that is headed our way.

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I was thinking about this last night. The Japanese are only too aware of the catastrophic consequences of a land price boom that cripples first their manufacturers and then their banks. Any sign of resurging land prices will be enough to give the Japanese palpitations, thing is yields over there are quite attractive, money is swilling around in $Trillions around the rest of the world and no doubt some are looking at the Japanese market very favourably (well those who are incurable property speculators). Even when they tighten they may well be surprised at how the money keeps on flowing in causing a bounce in values, they may have to raise a lot more than they think if the are going to quell the supply of global money into their market.

The Japanese were dead lucky - depsite the 90's crash they were dragged out of the hole by the late 90's worldwide boom, if it were not for that they could have been crying into their Sake for decades. Well now they've helped make their problem everybody else's.

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I was thinking about this last night. The Japanese are only too aware of the catastrophic consequences of a land price boom that cripples first their manufacturers and then their banks. Any sign of resurging land prices will be enough to give the Japanese palpitations, thing is yields over there are quite attractive, money is swilling around in $Trillions around the rest of the world and no doubt some are looking at the Japanese market very favourably (well those who are incurable property speculators). Even when they tighten they may well be surprised at how the money keeps on flowing in causing a bounce in values, they may have to raise a lot more than they think if the are going to quell the supply of global money into their market.

The Japanese were dead lucky - depsite the 90's crash they were dragged out of the hole by the late 90's worldwide boom, if it were not for that they could have been crying into their Sake for decades. Well now they've helped make their problem everybody else's.

On the other hand nothing much might happen to worldwide IRs:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/23/real_estat...rates/index.htm

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On the other hand nothing much might happen to worldwide IRs:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/23/real_estat...rates/index.htm

Not so sure:

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j.../23/ixcoms.html

http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.a...storyId=1178051

Bonds Fall After Strong Housing Data

Thursday, March 23, 2006 12:55 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bonds fell in midday trading Thursday, after existing U.S. home sales came in stronger than expected.
The price of the Treasury's 10-year note was down 6/32 point, or $1.875 per $1,000 in face value, around midday Thursday,
while its yield rose to 4.73 percent from 4.70 percent late Wednesday
. Prices and yields move in opposite directions

The trend is still pointing to higher rates.

Edited by Realistbear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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