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contrarian

Protecting The Downside

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New member, ex lurker, my first post.

I sold up in Oct. 2002. Friends said, 'You're smart, selling at the top of the bubble.'

They were wrong.

Now I'd like to buy a modest flat in / near central London. Or maye a house for renovation further out. But I still think prices will fall.

There's a lot of financially clever people posting here. Advice please!

Can you think of a way of buying (I will almost certainly need a mortgage), and structuring the asset or one's overall affairs, so as to minimize any losses if the market does fall?

Edited by contrarian

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Guest Winners and Losers

New member, ex lurker, my first post.

I sold up in Oct. 2002. Friends said, 'You're smart, selling at the top of the bubble.'

They were wrong.

Now I'd like to buy a modest flat in / near central London. But I still think prices will fall.

There's a lot of financially clever people posting here. Advice please!

Can you think of a way of buying (I will almost certainly need a mortgage), and structuring the asset or one's overall affairs, so as to minimize any losses if the market does fall?

Plenty of equity (big deposit) would help - if you have to that is. Don't expect capital gains though and don't buy something that you might sell in the next 5 - 10 years, unless you are happy to have made minimal, if any, capital gain or even a loss.

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Plenty of equity (big deposit) would help - if you have to that is. Don't expect capital gains though and don't buy something that you might sell in the next 5 - 10 years, unless you are happy to have made minimal, if any, capital gain or even a loss.

I know I may get slagged off for saying this, but you could try buying BMV.

Just remember that todays bargain is tomorrow's market price.

I've actually found Dolf De Roos's books good, they will show you how a professional property investor goes about buying property.

The cliches are there (ie you make your profit when you buy), but there's also a lot of good advice.

His method of viewing 100 properties for every one that he buys shows that it entails a massive amount of hard work, but it does pay off.

He also goes looking for forced sales, and quite often they work amusingly well. He doesn't get emotionally attached, to the properties or the people.

I think the best advice is educate yourself, and books are a bargain when you consider how much you will spend on a property.

Read some good books, spend some time on HPC questioning your views, and when you decide to buy, buy the worst place you can find in the best location.

ps, he's also looking forward to a real estate crash...

http://www.dolfderoos.com/

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0...6926846-9718261

Edited by BandWagon

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buy cheap. ideally with no work needed but if work is needed make sure it costs less than the extra equity yo'll get from doing it. make sure you buy 50% BMV so you don't get caught out!

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buy cheap. ideally with no work needed but if work is needed make sure it costs less than the extra equity yo'll get from doing it. make sure you buy 50% BMV so you don't get caught out!

That's one way of saying it's hopeless. My theory is that 'Where there's a will there's a way.' I admit this problem is one of the biggest challenges the theory has faced yet. :(

I will read at least one Dolf book to check him out.

Thanks to all for adivce. Keep it coming - there must be something one can do.

One of my ideas is to buy (if the lender will wear it) a short lease on the basis that shortly before it expires, when it is time to get an extension, any falls in the market will be reflected in the premium one has to pay for the extension. Any thoughts?

Also I was wondering about finding land for self-build (I have enough building skills for renovation or self-build if necessary). But I guess there the exposure to the market is no less.

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If you have a 25%+ deposit, buy a complete wreck. The worst it is the better, but do your homework. Slowly do it up as and when your finances allow. One room at a time if necessary.

Competition is always tough for these types of properties from builders etc, but you can usually beat them on price as you don’t need to make a living from it. Being what the Estate Agents call “proceedable” is key.

I’ve done this twice now (on top of a day job).

Not for the faint hearted though!

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New member, ex lurker, my first post.

I sold up in Oct. 2002. Friends said, 'You're smart, selling at the top of the bubble.'

They were wrong.

Now I'd like to buy a modest flat in / near central London. Or maye a house for renovation further out. But I still think prices will fall.

There's a lot of financially clever people posting here. Advice please!

Can you think of a way of buying (I will almost certainly need a mortgage), and structuring the asset or one's overall affairs, so as to minimize any losses if the market does fall?

Can I ask why you sold up ?

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Guest consa

New member, ex lurker, my first post.

I sold up in Oct. 2002. Friends said, 'You're smart, selling at the top of the bubble.'

They were wrong.

Now I'd like to buy a modest flat in / near central London. Or maye a house for renovation further out. But I still think prices will fall.

There's a lot of financially clever people posting here. Advice please!

Can you think of a way of buying (I will almost certainly need a mortgage), and structuring the asset or one's overall affairs, so as to minimize any losses if the market does fall?

What is wrong with renting? it is cheaper and you can wait to see what happens, this is the best way to hedge yourself against any losses and save more towards your deposit. You sold in 2002, that was a bit early.

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Can I ask why you sold up ?

Combination of personal crisis and belief the market had maxed out.

What is wrong with renting? it is cheaper and you can wait to see what happens, this is the best way to hedge yourself against any losses and save more towards your deposit. You sold in 2002, that was a bit early.

Renting is awful in the UK system. You are liable to be kicked out of your house every 6 months, even if you have lived there for ages. You have to fight for your deposit each time (I think that is changing?). You cannot keep a dog, pull down a wall, install a fireplace, sublet or write rude messages on the wall when you have domestic row. You end up feeling like (and being viewed by homeowners like) a 2d class citizen, with good reason.

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Buy now, but open a spread bet on prices falling.

frugalista

Yes that is the best solution. You can do this at www.spreadfair.com. If you look under the financial markets tab you will find house price trading. It is the only way to effectively gain insurance against a falling market and have a sense of security while enjoying the pleasure of owning your own home.

Market Observer.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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