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Realistbear

U K Outlook On I R Moving Toward Tightening

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl...OLL-BRITAIN.xml

Growth outlook brighter as rate cut odds fade

Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:48 PM GMT

By Natalie Harrison

LONDON (Reuters) - Economists are becoming more optimistic about economic growth and less certain that the next move in interest rates will be a cut, a Reuters poll of 31 economists shows.
"The next step in rates will be moving towards a tightening bias with a hike next year
. There is a much lower chance of cut in rates now as that would give the housing market a further boost," said Tim Drayson at ABN AMRO in London.
"By early 2007 there is a strong possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee will be in a position to start raising rates once more."

Factor in higher rates from the ECB, the Fed will raise to 5% leaving the B o E far behind and the rates from Japan rising starting today and the prospects for IR remaining static in the UK seem more like nil. Then again, a week is a long time in the world of economics. Look how fast hawkishness turned to dovishness on IR last week! What happens this week?

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I am now convinced that the only way a crash (as opposed to a slow decline) will happen is if interest rates rise. I thought that sentiment would change and trigger a crash but it just doesn't seem to be the case. Woyuld be interested in other views.

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They are all caught between a rock and a hard place :-

Rightmove - they have to report rising house prices because to do anything else would admit houses can fall in value, but in doing so they are saying everything is rosy and there is no need for a rate cut. So they are walking a fine line, shooting up and it sucks more sheeple in but alarms the BOE so they report 2.7 followed by 0.9 monthly figures.

Halifax and Nationwide and BBA and RICS etc, see above.

BOE - they drop IR and debt goes even more loopy, GBP drops like a stone. They raise IR and half the country go bankrupt, HPC, they get the blame.

They are all caught in the headlights right now in a very uncertain market, one thing is certain, if they drop the rates it might hold it together for another 6 months but the storm is inevitable, it will happen.

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LONDON (Reuters) - Economists are becoming more optimistic about economic growth and less certain that the next move in interest rates will be a cut, a Reuters poll of 31 economists shows.
"The next step in rates will be moving towards a tightening bias with a hike next year
. There is a much lower chance of cut in rates now as that would give the housing market a further boost," said Tim Drayson at ABN AMRO in London.
Great. Another "Analyst" who doesn't understand that the BOE targets consumer inflation.
And another attempt by the crowd on HPC to predict interest rates.
If you guys ever figure it out, I'd suggest applying for a job at Goldman's or Merrill's, they'll pay a fortune for something that the world's best economic and mathematical minds have been unable to figure out.
Edited by BandWagon

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Throw in the towel bears, you can't win. Even if rates are flat this year, then rise next, it'll all be because GROWTH is on track & HP's will be rising & rents too.

It's either that, or rates dropping which will boost HPI.

Another HPC prediction gone bad then, first it was the HPC predicted for the last few years including 2 at this forum, now it's the recession that never was.

You lot must be great stock pickers too!

:lol::lol::lol:

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If you guys ever figure it out, I'd suggest applying for a job at Goldman's or Merrill's, they'll pay a fortune for something that the world's best economic and mathematical minds have been unable to figure out.

How is it hard to figure out that when there's inflation of around 6-8% in the UK (real inflation, not fake government inflation) and the rest of the world is raising rates, then rates should be going up here too? There's no guarantee that the BoE will do so, because it's run by idiots, but they should have started raising rates long ago.

The only people here who have a bad record of predicting interest rate changes are the bulls, who've been telling us for months that rates will go down soon.

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Throw in the towel bears, you can't win. Even if rates are flat this year, then rise next, it'll all be because GROWTH is on track & HP's will be rising & rents too.

It's either that, or rates dropping which will boost HPI.

Another HPC prediction gone bad then, first it was the HPC predicted for the last few years including 2 at this forum, now it's the recession that never was.

You lot must be great stock pickers too!

:lol::lol::lol:

Either way for IR and house prices will fall. Up and its a severe and sudden crash. Down and its recession and a long and slow death for house prices. Face it, house prices are too high for the population that is supporting them. People do not earn enough in this country to sustain the highest prices in the world (income related).

No market has self sustained at prices that have deviated this far from fundamentals. The economic cysle cannot be beaten. Greenspan was right--the froth has to give way to a painful correction.

Stock picking: not bad, overall portfolio up 16% last year and about 4.5% YTD. Considerably better than average house prices? Outpaced the market last year by 1600%! :lol:

Edited by Realistbear

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Either way for IR and house prices will fall. Up and its a severe and sudden crash. Down and its recession and a long and slow death for house prices. Face it, house prices are too high for the population that is supporting them. People do not earn enough in this country to sustain the highest prices in the world (income related).

No market has self sustained at prices that have deviated this far from fundamentals. The economic cysle cannot be beaten. Greenspan was right--the froth has to give way to a painful correction.

Stock picking: not bad, overall portfolio up 16% last year and about 4.5% YTD. Considerably better than average house prices? Outpaced the market last year by 1600%! :lol:

Congratulations on your 16%.

Take Rightmoves 8% YOY figure for Wandsworth for me. That's 8% of several million pounds made up mostly of borrowed money. Far better than 16% on my own money.

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Congratulations on your 16%.

Take Rightmoves 8% YOY figure for Wandsworth for me. That's 8% of several million pounds made up mostly of borrowed money. Far better than 16% on my own money.

Rightmove don't count anymore as their skewed data is no longer credible. The BBC didn't even report their figure when they were released!

With the BoJ bound to RTRates sooner than later iot moght be a good idea to unload property--fast:

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStor...nternational.na

CHICAGO -(Dow Jones)- The Bank of Japan's rate outlook is "completely open" at the moment, but market pressures on short-term interest rates could encourage the BOJ to lift interest rates sooner than many expect, Bank of Japan policy board member Atsushi Mizuno said Monday.

A HPC of 50-60% is not beyond the realms of possibility given the run up and historical data that supports corrections of this magnitude. I am keeping a trigger finger on my stock portfolio and will stop loss as the markets will also tank at the first sign of real trouble--IR will probably be the trigger. With a house portfolio the lead in time to the point of sale will be too long to react to the market shift. Acting now would be a wise move--the sell signals are all there and only the VIs are ramping property as they need to make commissions. BTLs should be taking profits like all smart investors do when the market tops. Wait too long and you lose--it applies to ALL Investments.

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Rightmove don't count anymore as their skewed data is no longer credible. The BBC didn't even report their figure when they were released!

With the BoJ bound to RTRates sooner than later iot moght be a good idea to unload property--fast:

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStor...nternational.na

CHICAGO -(Dow Jones)- The Bank of Japan's rate outlook is "completely open" at the moment, but market pressures on short-term interest rates could encourage the BOJ to lift interest rates sooner than many expect, Bank of Japan policy board member Atsushi Mizuno said Monday.

A HPC of 50-60% is not beyond the realms of possibility given the run up and historical data that supports corrections of this magnitude. I am keeping a trigger finger on my stock portfolio and will stop loss as the markets will also tank at the first sign of real trouble--IR will probably be the trigger. With a house portfolio the lead in time to the point of sale will be too long to react to the market shift. Acting now would be a wise move--the sell signals are all there and only the VIs are ramping property as they need to make commissions. BTLs should be taking profits like all smart investors do when the market tops. Wait too long and you lose--it applies to ALL Investments.

You see, i have a terrible way with words (possibly some sort of phobia [lol]) but thats exactly how i feel.

Spot on again Mr Bear.

Only greedy people like TTRTR seem to drag things out. You must have heard about smart money and dumb money. The smart buy low sell high, the dumb buy high sell low, and the inept buy low watch it go all the way up then back all the way down.

Which group would you assosiate yourself with TTRTR?

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Congratulations on your 16%.

Take Rightmoves 8% YOY figure for Wandsworth for me. That's 8% of several million pounds made up mostly of borrowed money. Far better than 16% on my own money.

:lol: wonder why you chose Rightmove ?

Wandsworth, next on the Rightmove list to Cloud Cukooland........

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You see, i have a terrible way with words (possibly some sort of phobia [lol]) but thats exactly how i feel.

Spot on again Mr Bear.

Only greedy people like TTRTR seem to drag things out. You must have heard about smart money and dumb money. The smart buy low sell high, the dumb buy high sell low, and the inept buy low watch it go all the way up then back all the way down.

Which group would you assosiate yourself with TTRTR?

Actually, IMO smart investors invest in growth assets. Assets that grow in value naturally as time passes.

:lol: wonder why you chose Rightmove ?

Wandsworth, next on the Rightmove list to Cloud Cukooland........

Choose another index, it's only a different percentage.

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TTRTR quote: 'made up mostly of borrowed money'
.

Hmm.....

Frankly, I would rather have real money earning 16% than a notional gain on pure debt.

Debt has to be repaid even in the fantasy 'new paradigm'.

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Actually, IMO smart investors invest in growth assets. Assets that grow in value naturally as time passes.

Choose another index, it's only a different percentage.

And the smartest still buy it cheap sell it high, then buy it back again on the cheap..

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Guest muttley

Congratulations on your 16%.

Take Rightmoves 8% YOY figure for Wandsworth for me. That's 8% of several million pounds made up mostly of borrowed money.

You only got 8% on Rightmove?

1000% is easily acheivable on Rightmove prices.

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30 User(s) are reading this topic (15 Guests and 1 Anonymous Users)

14 Members: sign_of_the_times, Fudge, muttley, WooHoo, martinipaul, MarkG, Grunff, taxmyrs, 2MeterBear, keepwatching, devslim, shermanator, stalledFTB, big_jay

anyway Rents, why do you float around Anonymously ?

what are you scared of ? :lol:

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A HPC of 50-60% is not beyond the realms of possibility given the run up and historical data that supports corrections of this magnitude. I am keeping a trigger finger on my stock portfolio and will stop loss as the markets will also tank at the first sign of real trouble--IR will probably be the trigger. With a house portfolio the lead in time to the point of sale will be too long to react to the market shift. Acting now would be a wise move--the sell signals are all there and only the VIs are ramping property as they need to make commissions. BTLs should be taking profits like all smart investors do when the market tops. Wait too long and you lose--it applies to ALL Investments.

What's the probability TTRTR?

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Throw in the towel bears, you can't win. Even if rates are flat this year, then rise next, it'll all be because GROWTH is on track & HP's will be rising & rents too.

It's either that, or rates dropping which will boost HPI.

Another HPC prediction gone bad then, first it was the HPC predicted for the last few years including 2 at this forum, now it's the recession that never was.

You lot must be great stock pickers too!

:lol::lol::lol:

quick everybody, hes right...we had better rush out and get on the ladder while we still can :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Edited by geneer

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Great. Another "Analyst" who doesn't understand that the BOE targets consumer inflation.

And another attempt by the crowd on HPC to predict interest rates.

If you guys ever figure it out, I'd suggest applying for a job at Goldman's or Merrill's, they'll pay a fortune for something that the world's best economic and mathematical minds have been unable to figure out.

I seem to remember about 2 months ago RealistBear was predicting rate rises, LONG before the media started hinting it as of lately.

Anyway, I've lost track of the number of times I've seen "The BOE target consumer inflation", they look after the economy in general too. And I quote: "The Bank has two core purposes - monetary stability and financial stability".

TTRTR and Bandwagon, you need to get your heads out of the sand, look around you at the data being released day in, day out.

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Why does a man spend so much web crawling time telling complete strangers on how to make money from UK property instead of using the time more constructively finding the property investments or failing that at least he could keep his great wisdom to himself so that we don't all benefit?

I mean you can only really measure your wealth against what others are holding or could it be perhaps that this man has an alternative agenda?

;)

Edited by delite1

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I seem to remember about 2 months ago RealistBear was predicting rate rises, LONG before the media started hinting it as of lately.

Anyway, I've lost track of the number of times I've seen "The BOE target consumer inflation", they look after the economy in general too. And I quote: "The Bank has two core purposes - monetary stability and financial stability".

TTRTR and Bandwagon, you need to get your heads out of the sand, look around you at the data being released day in, day out.

:lol::lol::lol:

85% of the forum have been predicting rate rises.

Why does a man spend so much web crawling time telling complete strangers on how to make money from UK property instead of using the time more constructively finding the property investments or failing that at least he could keep his great wisdom to himself so that we don't all benefit?

I mean you can only really measure your wealth against what others are holding or could it be perhaps that this man has an alternative agenda?

;)

Nice to see you D1. You must be very pissed off with yourself for selling up those rental places!! Things have really picked up lately & all you can do about it now is buy back in at higher prices.

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anyway Rents, why do you float around Anonymously ?

Because long ago there was a point where everytime I switched on my computer (and my name appeared on the viewers list), people would start threads challenging me to argue a point with them. Considering the site is so bearish, you can imagine that I felt for a while I was being stalked.

And 99% of the media rate cuts !!!

:lol::lol::lol:

TTRTR,

I still own more than enough property.

Yes I know, the ones your partners refused to listen to you when you begged them to sell. A wise investor wouldn't put themselves in a position of needing someone else's permission to sell.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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