Mortage Lending Down A Whopping 5% On January

[Realistbear]

http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/03/m...rd-february.jsp

Mortgage lending has a record February

By Laurie Osborne, Editor

Published 20th Mar 2006, (a Monday) at 09:40AM

Gross mortgage lending totalled £21.8 billion in February according to the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

This figure, a record for February, was down by 5% on January's £23 billion of lending,

but is 22% higher than the £17.9 lent in February 2005.

Last week we learned that more and more people are mortgaging to pay off credit card loans. How much of this drop of 5% from January can be attributed to re-mortgaing or continuing MEW?

Edited March 20, 2006 by Realistbear

[Surrey cash buyer]

Here is the press release.

CML

You can spin these figures whatever way you like. Just looks to me that the housing market has picked up earlier this year than it usually does.... And I think it will fall back earlier this year than it usually does.

[Realistbear]

Right. We have to remember that 2005 was not a good year for HPI so the base comparison has to be factored in. However, a 5% drop shows that the borrowing lacks momentum.

It would be interesting if the VIs would admit how much is being borrowed to pay council tax, credit cards, Christmas presents etc.

[planit]

I thought that February was always low though.

What was the drop percentage wise between Jan and Feb last year?

[Mags]

Last week we learned that more and more people are mortgaging to pay off credit card loans. How much of this drop of 5% from January can be attributed to re-mortgaing or continuing MEW?

I've just received the Standard Life magazine 'Money etc'. On pages 8 and 9 there's a feature called 'what's the best tenner you've ever spent?' In prime position there's a bloke who says that the best tenner he spent was on a CD by Mew and the Glass-handed Kites. The quote they have attributed to him says: 'Without Mew my life would be so empty'.

So, in a mag by a financial institution, in an article on spending money, they actually include that phrase in the prime position on the page... this isn't coincidence.

On pages 10 and 11 there's also an article about ditching estate agents and selling online. They've included loads of stats about how much better it is to do that than to go through an estate agent.

I think that mew is still a big factor.

[Hairlocks]

2005 Jan 17,356

Feb 17,852

Mar 21,155

Apr 21,727

May 22,332

Jun 25,717

Jul 25,514

Aug 26,970

Sep 27,679

Oct 26,987

Nov 27,721

Dec 26,911

2006 Jan 22,980 (est 23,030)

Febest 21,820

There was an increase of 2.8% from Jan to Feb last year.

[Casual Observer]

More crazy spin from Surrealist Bear

[Jason]

BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4824608.stm

Although this fell from Jan, it is still up over 20% YoY. It will be interesting to see what proportion is remortgaging!

[Realistbear]

More crazy spin from Surrealist Bear

More counter-spin from the Unrealobserver?

You have to admit the figures speak for themselves--a 5% drop is a drop any way you want to cut it. And the monthly figures quoted above show the trend is still down. This is reality--not sureality. Scary to the trolls and bulls but what are you going to do?

No, the spin comes from the VIs trying to make people believe the market is getting hotter so they should jump in before its too late!

[Surrey cash buyer]

Here's the BSA Press Release

Building Societies Association

“The amount saved in building society accounts last month was the highest for any February since 1997. Savings have been significantly stronger over the last few months, while high street spending has been restrained. There are indications that consumer confidence in the economy as a whole is falling and precautionary savings appear to be rising as a consequence.”

“On a seasonally adjusted basis, February’s mortgage approvals were slightly down on January’s high. While the market remains strong, indeed out-stripping some commentators expectations, a slowing number of loans agreed but not yet made could signal a slight moderation after a relatively buoyant winter.”

[Goat]

February is 3 days shorter than january; that's 10% less.

Lets not get carried away with a 5% drop.

[Mags]

February is 3 days shorter than january; that's 10% less.

Lets not get carried away with a 5% drop.

Bank holidays at the start of Jan even that out.

[CrashBear]

5% is a pretty big fall, lets see what happens in march.

anyone got a graph of mortgage lending?

[Guest Fiddlesticks]

You have to admit the figures speak for themselves--a 5% drop is a drop any way you want to cut it. And the monthly figures quoted above show the trend is still down. This is reality--not sureality. Scary to the trolls and bulls but what are you going to do?

I know these posts are well-intentioned, and I wish I could find them convincing, but I'm afraid we just have to accept that there is a fairly robust spring bounce going on (certainly where I live in London). If there's going to be a downturn this year it won't be until the second half IMO.

[Hairlocks]

February is 3 days shorter than january; that's 10% less.

Lets not get carried away with a 5% drop.

Well last year there was a 2.8% rise from January to Febuary.

[simon99]

5% is nothing, and it's from a high level in the first place.

[Casual Observer]

More counter-spin from the Unrealobserver?

You have to admit the figures speak for themselves--a 5% drop is a drop any way you want to cut it. And the monthly figures quoted above show the trend is still down. This is reality--not sureality. Scary to the trolls and bulls but what are you going to do?

No, the spin comes from the VIs trying to make people believe the market is getting hotter so they should jump in before its too late!

Just look at your thread's title, for God's sake.

If 5% is whopping what superlative do you reserve for 30%, should it ever happen?

[kingofnowhere]

FWIW

Lending is always the lowest in Feb, as it is for people whoese mortgages were approved in Jan, which means they would have been looking around the housing market in Nov or Dec.

Also Theses numbers are gross, so you don't know what is remortage and what is for house purchase

BSA approvals number, also out today is lower than would be expected. Although they did have a strong Jan, and it could be just an move from the BSA (Nationwide in effect), to the banks. However we wont know this until the BBA approval number is out (Which FWIW has for house purchase numbers)

Also the BBA and BSA net lending numbers are out. These are lower, infact on a combined basis lower than even last year. This however could be , because people are paying off their mortgages at a faster rate than new borrrowing, compared to earlier months.

Overall slightly weaker numbers than last month.

[AteMoose]

CML lending...

[tahoma]

Just look at your thread's title, for God's sake.

Look at your screen name, for god's sake. You don't seem too 'casual', and you have done alot more with your 2077 posts here than 'observe'.

[r thritis]

Bank holidays at the start of Jan even that out.

Jan had 21 working days, Feb had 20 working days. Therefore Jan had 5% more working days in it than Feb. So you'd expect 5% more lending in Jan.

[Casual Observer]

Look at your screen name, for god's sake. You don't seem too 'casual', and you have done alot more with your 2077 posts here than 'observe'.

What a weak riposte!

I haven't updated my screen name since I joined - how terrible!

Now back to the main point... by what standards is 5% whopping?

Tell you what, I'm a Bear, so why question another Bear? 5% - that's ginormous! That's going to cause devestation to house prices! I reckon we'll see 40% falls, folowing this "whopping" reduction.

After all, we shouldn't challenge RealistBear's hyperbole should we - let's save that for the "VIs"

Edited March 20, 2006 by Casual Observer

[Mags]

Jan had 21 working days, Feb had 20 working days. Therefore Jan had 5% more working days in it than Feb. So you'd expect 5% more lending in Jan.

Depends where you are I guess as well as what you want to see in the info coming out.

We viewed a house that had been on the market for over a year on Saturday and the vendor dropped the asking price from 200k to 190k in that time. This was a two up two down ex-council cottage and the council has planning permission for a major road development to skim the end of the back garden. Nice. Interestingly the EA, who started off saying that it was a sellers market and that we had to move really fast because so many people wanted the cottage eventually admitted, when she realised we didn't believe her, that the market was struggling and that they could use our feedback to tell the vendor that it's not going to sell at that price. I've lost count of the number of places that we've viewed that are still on the market. I have a relative who is an EA in the Wokingham/Bracknell/Reading area whose earnings, she says, have never been so low. When I hear what it's like from the inside, and combine that with my experience of viewing and tracking prices, and then look at figures like those posted here which, even with mew are not at all out of line with what might be expected without it, it's going to take a lot to convince me that all is rosy in the housing market... if that was what you were trying to do

[Given Up]

Well for what it's worth, there were 4 houses for sale in my road. They all sat around for a year and now, so far this year, one is sold, one is under offer and one has been withdrawn. One is left for sale.

Edited March 20, 2006 by Given Up

[Realistbear]

Just look at your thread's title, for God's sake.

If 5% is whopping what superlative do you reserve for 30%, should it ever happen?

How about using the word "RECORD?'

Here is another VI using a superlative for a non-event (in your book):

http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/03/m...rd-february.jsp

"Mortgage lending has a

record

February"

Anyone would think house prices are about to go up up and away with a "record" amount of borrowing.

IMHO, 5% is a large amount to drop in just one month--made even more noteworthy in the face of the VIs saying houses flew of the shelves last month (Rightmove). All of the VI spin is exaggerated BS.