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crazychick

Some Evening Reading

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i am lazy, whats the highlights crazy chick?

What goes up must come down, our economies are shagged and we're all dead in the longrun. Eerily the same as nearly all economic papers.

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Here's one - long document though.

Current low inflation

levels will influence any

downward adjustment

• If house prices were to adjust downward, possibly in response to

an increase in interest rates or for other reasons, the historical

record suggests that the drops (in real terms) might be large and

that the process could be protracted, given the observed stickiness

of nominal house prices and the current low rate of inflation. This

would have implications for activity and monetary policy.

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thanks

most brainiac analysts are pretty pessimistic.... I guess its much easier and safer to predict doom, rather than predicting otherwise. (well maybe i should read the whole article!)

Like a weather man - "take your brolley just in case"

Edited by notanewmember

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Here's one - long document though.

Current low inflation

levels will influence any

downward adjustment

• If house prices were to adjust downward, possibly in response to

an increase in interest rates or for other reasons, the historical

record suggests that the drops (in real terms) might be large and

that the process could be protracted, given the observed stickiness

of nominal house prices and the current low rate of inflation. This

would have implications for activity and monetary policy.

Interesting to note that house price to rent ratio has started going down in the UK but no sign of that for house price to income. But Australia and some other countries don't seem to have had massive boom and bust patterns before in the last few decades, but have one now. Particularly Germany, but also Japan have house price to income ratios on long term downwards trends. Italy prices look even less predictable to the UK. The UK is the world leader in boom/bust.

Is house price boom/bust the new "English disease"?

Previous house price boom/busts have been closely linked to "The business cycle". This one isn't.

I haven't read this in detail yet, but I think this is required reading for me and I think everyone else on this site.

Billy Shears

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Hi,

Might be good to pin it so it can get digested slowly instead of drifting down the stack. The OECD usually come up with some pretty good research, whichever side of the fence they are coming down on here.

Boomer

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Hi,

Might be good to pin it so it can get digested slowly instead of drifting down the stack. The OECD usually come up with some pretty good research, whichever side of the fence they are coming down on here.

Boomer

Why don't you post the link in the "articles about the housing market" pinned thread. I could do it, but since I'm not the original poster, am hestiant to do so.

Billy Shears

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Hey Crazychick,

I started a thread on this a while back:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=23237&hl=oecd

its a brilliant paper - I use it as my first reference to give to all the bulls... "did you know that 24 of the 37 HP rises in OECD countries that went over 15% have resulted in a fall?" etc.

tell everyone about this paper, its one of the bears best pieces of Economic analysis and I'm so disappointed I haven't seen any referencce to this by any major newspaper.

- Pye (Property Speculation Ninja :ph34r: )

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Guest Bart of Darkness

What goes up must come down, our economies are shagged and we're all dead in the longrun. Eerily the same as nearly all economic papers.

And a lot of the posts on here.

What goes up, must come down doesn't apply to hairlines alas. :(

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Why don't you post the link in the "articles about the housing market" pinned thread. I could do it, but since I'm not the original poster, am hestiant to do so.

Billy Shears

Billy - could you do it - my machine is playing up - everytime I go into the article to copy the link my computer freezes up!!!!! :unsure:

I'm no economist but my other half studied economics at Uni and he keeps on saying the cycle is now ending - crash here we come - I only hope it isn't a long drawn out affair. If prices drop 20% I'd be happy

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Billy - could you do it - my machine is playing up - everytime I go into the article to copy the link my computer freezes up!!!!! :unsure:

I'm no economist but my other half studied economics at Uni and he keeps on saying the cycle is now ending - crash here we come - I only hope it isn't a long drawn out affair. If prices drop 20% I'd be happy

I've posted the link.

If prices drop 20%, that would be enough for me too.

Billy Shears

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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